ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

It sure does look that way.

Almost looks to be moving due west now

[stormhunter7]

AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SALLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. SALLY HAS BEEN MEANDERING
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY, BUT A WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY.

[La Breeze]

This stuff may kick it up a notch or two overnight

https://i.imgur.com/evPlp9d.png

Isn't this the blob that was moving southwest toward Mexico?

No, that blob is now off the coast of Mexico. I think What GCANE has indicated there is a batch of high CAPE air that's normally in the Gulf, roughly to the SE of Galveston.

Yes, I thought that he was referring to the blob of clouds where the arrows begin.

[3090]

Almost looks to be moving due west now

Exactly and my concern for it following the early on models from I think Saturday.

[NotoSans]

Winds in the northern quadrant may be slightly enhanced by mesoscale features. 80kt looks reasonable at this stage

[cfisher]

Winds in the northern quadrant may be slightly enhanced by mesoscale features. 80kt looks reasonable at this stage

But it was a sustained SFMR measurement. That would make more sense if it was a gust.

[PTPatrick]

90kt SFMR from AF no flags with others around that.. looks like we have 100 mph cat 2 now.

If this turns out to be true, then this unexpected rate of RI would bring upper Cat.3 and even Cat.4 on the table should this continue thru tomorrow. I wish I could say i’m jumping the gun, but it’s happening in front of our very eyes right now.

well the 12z Ukmet brings pressure down to 965 at landfall.

20mb drop from where it is now.. assuming no crazy structural changes would likely bring it to near cat 4.

Where is ukmet landfall?

[cheezyWXguy]

Starting to get some deeper oranges in that core. Looks like about an 11 mile wide eye is going to come out soon

[Aric Dunn]

If this turns out to be true, then this unexpected rate of RI would bring upper Cat.3 and even Cat.4 on the table should this continue thru tomorrow. I wish I could say i’m jumping the gun, but it’s happening in front of our very eyes right now.

well the 12z Ukmet brings pressure down to 965 at landfall.

20mb drop from where it is now.. assuming no crazy structural changes would likely bring it to near cat 4.

Where is ukmet landfall?

looks like Mobile or slightly east.

[Blow_Hard]

Almost looks to be moving due west now

That's what I'm seeing also...

[Aric Dunn]

radar looks like its stalled again.. possibly doing another small loop. typical signs of deepening continue..

[DestinHurricane]

well the 12z Ukmet brings pressure down to 965 at landfall.

20mb drop from where it is now.. assuming no crazy structural changes would likely bring it to near cat 4.

Where is ukmet landfall?

looks like Mobile or slightly east.

It is actually Pensacola looking at weather.us

[bella_may]

Almost looks to be moving due west now

Exactly and my concern for it following the early on models from I think Saturday.

It was a little north of the nhc track so this might put it back on track or close to it

[pcolaman]

If this turns out to be true, then this unexpected rate of RI would bring upper Cat.3 and even Cat.4 on the table should this continue thru tomorrow. I wish I could say i’m jumping the gun, but it’s happening in front of our very eyes right now.

well the 12z Ukmet brings pressure down to 965 at landfall.

20mb drop from where it is now.. assuming no crazy structural changes would likely bring it to near cat 4.

Where is ukmet landfall?

Pensacola

[p1nheadlarry]

What is our moist entropy looking like in the gulf region? Someone here plots the theta-e contour plots from time to time..

[Stormgodess]

It sure does look that way.

Almost looks to be moving due west now

What Ive always wondered, if a strong storm ever hits New Orleans coming in at that Western Angle... Wouldnt it be even more devastating than a hit from the south?

Less land before reaching the city, Water from surge basically coming in from north, east, and south???

[bella_may]

Hurricane warnings have been extended into inland Mississippi now

[cheezyWXguy]

It sure does look that way.

Almost looks to be moving due west now

What Ive always wondered, if a strong storm ever hits New Orleans coming in at that Western Angle... Wouldnt it be even more devastating than a hit from the south?

Less land before reaching the city, Water from surge basically coming in from north, east, and south???

Yep, and that’s what the HWRF was showing a couple days ago, as a cat3. Fortunately for them it’s shifted east, not so fortunate for mobile or Pensacola

[kevin]

Wait, have those cat 2 wind readings been flagged or is this actually already most likely a cat 2 at the moment?

[cfisher]

It looks like a big eye with some embedded eyewalls.