ATL: LAURA - Models

[Hammy]

Why are the 00z Euro runs seemingly consistently weaker/less active than the 12z? I've noticed this in general and I think somebody else pointed it out too with the ensembles some days ago.

[Steve]

^^ (to 2013) Southwest LA where HWRF was a couple runs back but way weaker. It does throw a 1-2 punch at SWLA with Marco wanting to hit that area Monday night but getting shunted westward followed by Laura sometime Wednesday morning. King losing his crown?

note: post heavily edited after that hook west with Marco at the end

[Blinhart]

^^ (to 2013) Southwest LA where HWRF was a couple runs back but way weaker. It does throw a 1-2 punch at SWLA with Marco wanting to hit that area Monday night but getting shunted westward followed by Laura sometime Wednesday morning. King losing his crown?

note: post heavily edited after that hook west with Marco at the end

So are you saying we could have 2 systems just scoot along the whole coast of Louisiana dropping an extreme amount of rain on us with the surge and waves on top for a whole week. Geez the whole coast of Louisiana will be looking a whole lot different after this week, if these situations pan out.

[Steve]

^^ (to 2013) Southwest LA where HWRF was a couple runs back but way weaker. It does throw a 1-2 punch at SWLA with Marco wanting to hit that area Monday night but getting shunted westward followed by Laura sometime Wednesday morning. King losing his crown?

note: post heavily edited after that hook west with Marco at the end

So are you saying we could have 2 systems just scoot along the whole coast of Louisiana dropping an extreme amount of rain on us with the surge and waves on top for a whole week. Geez the whole coast of Louisiana will be looking a whole lot different after this week, if these situations pan out.

I'm not saying, but the ECMWF is. It deflects Marco not far from the LA coast and pushes him toward Texas. Laura comes up between you and Morgan City it looks like (I don't have better EC access except from Pivotal and TT). Both relatively weak though. Maybe land interactions will make Laura weak like the EC thinks. Maybe it gets curbstomped by the hurricane models. We won't really know until probably Monday what we're really looking at with Laura and maybe Sunday for Marco.

[Blinhart]

^^ (to 2013) Southwest LA where HWRF was a couple runs back but way weaker. It does throw a 1-2 punch at SWLA with Marco wanting to hit that area Monday night but getting shunted westward followed by Laura sometime Wednesday morning. King losing his crown?

note: post heavily edited after that hook west with Marco at the end

So are you saying we could have 2 systems just scoot along the whole coast of Louisiana dropping an extreme amount of rain on us with the surge and waves on top for a whole week. Geez the whole coast of Louisiana will be looking a whole lot different after this week, if these situations pan out.

I'm not saying, but the ECMWF is. It deflects Marco not far from the LA coast and pushes him toward Texas. Laura comes up between you and Morgan City it looks like (I don't have better EC access except from Pivotal and TT). Both relatively weak though. Maybe land interactions will make Laura weak like the EC thinks. Maybe it gets curbstomped by the hurricane models. We won't really know until probably Monday what we're really looking at with Laura and maybe Sunday for Marco.

Yeah the way it is going, I'm going to have to cut my hair so I don't pull it all out. This is just nuts within a possible 72 hours of landfall of Marco and approximately 120 hours of landfall of Laura, and we have no idea of where, or how strong they are going to be. If it is driving us non-mets nuts, just imagine what it is doing to all the pro-mets and the government officials that must decide on evacuations and all other orders. I know Governor Edwards has already declared Louisiana for a State of Emergency.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro Ensemble members remain clustered near TX late Wednesday into Thursday.

[stormlover2013]

No image ?

[SouthernBreeze]

Laura's really been blowing up on satellite tonight, more so than last night

[CM2]

Euro Member 25 perfectly shows just how weird the gulf can get and also shows why forecast going into the gulf are going to be extremely unknown untill they get MUCH closer.

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS:


Stronger west members on this run.

[northjaxpro]

Is that Marco just south of LA? Isn't that a massive shift from central Tx coast all the way over to central LA?

It is a massive shift eastward for Marco.

[South Texas Storms]

6z ICON with a significant shift westward and much stronger. Now is showing a hurricane making landfall in SW LA Wednesday night. All major global models are west of New Orleans now except the Canadian.

[SouthernBreeze]

Is that Marco just south of LA? Isn't that a massive shift from central Tx coast all the way over to central LA?

It is a massive shift eastward for Marco.

Looking at the cloud flow on satellite, it sure looks like Marco doesn't want to go west at all to me

[3090]

Is that Marco just south of LA? Isn't that a massive shift from central Tx coast all the way over to central LA?

It is a massive shift eastward for Marco.

Looking at the cloud flow on satellite, it sure looks like Marco doesn't want to go west at all to me

(I know this is the Laura thread, but just replying to this one reference to Marco).

I think Marco continues more NNW, then NW, and spilts the Yucatan channel. I think he travels a decent ways into the GOM and will eventually bend back more NW, then WNW, as the high builds west. His turn toward the Texas coast will be more dramatic then previous forecast.The stronger he gets, the more he should pump the ridge on the western edge. It will be interesting to see how far into the GOM he travels, before making the bend and turn then toward Texas.

[Kingarabian]

06z ICON:

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hour 126:

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hour 126+ trend:


Significant shift west.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks similar to the latest Euro Ensemble mean. The threat of a TX hurricane is increasing.

[stormlover2013]

With euro and gfs on board watch out, Freeport to sw la is my guess right now pretty good consensus

[SoupBone]

Why the sudden shift away from the HWRF now?