ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Only moderate convection needed.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1285241148630597638

[TheProfessor]

12z Canadian is much weaker with this wave in the extended range today.

[Aric Dunn]

That is enough convection on the western side building in a pattern consistent with a TC with some towers trying to rotate around the east side.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1285268214306529281

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little
in organization during the past several hours. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development
of this system during the next few days while it moves westward at
10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. By Friday and over the
weekend, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for
tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
.

[GCANE]

That is enough convection on the western side building in a pattern consistent with a TC with some towers trying to rotate around the east side.

https://i.ibb.co/RycbjCZ/1010-336.gif

Sweet.
Towers on the west side are going to help quickly build the anti-cyclone.
Positive feedback kicking in.

[drezee]

We always have this threshold. If it was in the Gulf of Mexico, would it be classified. For what I am looking at now, if that convection is still there by 0z...then yes it would.

[cycloneye]

Location: 8.6°N 37.6°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

[GCANE]

Very nice tower just west of the CoC.
That answers the question of this being a protected pouch.

[GCANE]

Combined IR-Satellite Wind-Field Analysis just came in.

[MississippiWx]

Believe a 20% chance is rather conservative. Believe 50-60% in the short term is more appropriate.

[SFLcane]

Combined IR-Satellite Wind-Field Analysis just came in.

https://i.imgur.com/P37ohRS.gif

Those analyses aren't perfect... I would use the actual satellite data.

[Aric Dunn]

Combined IR-Satellite Wind-Field Analysis just came in.

https://i.imgur.com/P37ohRS.gif

Those analyses aren't perfect... I would use the actual satellite data.

It is actual satellite data.. along with any available data including ascat.

they are actually pretty darn accurate

[Aric Dunn]

quite a drastic increase in EPS for 12z. with a few members lasting the entire 240 hours.

[Nimbus]

Still kind of dry, but very clear rotation and its getting towards the end of July.
Models are becoming more bullish on a persistent area that could make it all the way into the Gulf.

[chaser1]

Still kind of dry, but very clear rotation and its getting towards the end of July.
Models are becoming more bullish on a persistent area that could make it all the way into the Gulf.

Yep, I'd pretty much agree with that. At it's fairly low latitude, I'm less concerned with dryer air mixing in but those ENE upper level winds ARE pretty brisk looking. I'm not as sure as Levi seems to be about those upper level winds abating all that soon but if he's right, it certainly seems to have a decent low level spin for it to work with. I think the odds are close to even on an upgrade to T.D. OR dissipation into the ITCZ by tomorrow evening. If it does little more than maintain status quo for the next 24 hours though, then I'd hedge toward further development over the following day or two.

[Monsoonjr99]

Seems well on its way to developing into a TC, even though the GFS has backed off on development somewhat. CMC has started to correct for the hostile conditions ahead and no longer shows it surviving all the way across the Caribbean, but still shows it surviving past the islands, which likely won't happen. If this forms, it should be a short-lived TD or maybe TS before the ULL, SAL, and trade burst snuff it out.

[abajan]

Convection flaring:

[Ivanhater]

Looks like a TD to me. It is consistently firing convection over the LLC

[South Texas Storms]

Early Evening NHC Update stays at 20%.

Shower activity has changed little in association with a weak area
of low pressure, and its associated tropical wave, located roughly
midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for development of this system during the next couple of days while
it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Late
this week, however, less favorable conditions should limit
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.