ATL: HANNA - Models

[Steve]

Here's the Canadian through 1am Sunday morning. It is far more likely than the GFS. Canadian stepping up again in certain situations, but I also think it is underestimating rainfall potential.



y'all with the higher resolution **** ought to post some of those totals.

[Hurricaneman]

The CMC seems like it’s become a decent model, no longer a joke like it used to be

[AxaltaRacing24]

The CMC seems like it’s become a decent model, no longer a joke like it used to be

it's honestly one of the best ones this season.

[Steve]

The CMC seems like it’s become a decent model, no longer a joke like it used to be

it's honestly one of the best ones this season.

Yeah. Maybe the verifications at the end of the year will say it sucked hard. But when you run it, you sometimes catch things even a week to ten days out that happen. I'm still considering all that anecdotal, but I've been looking forward to its runs when we have storms. Could be that blind squirrel or clock syndrome. It was always great for kicks unless you looked deeper into some of its trends and tendencies for pressure variances. But now it throws out better ideas.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc is so bad lol

[Cpv17]

Here's the GFS. I'm not buying its rainfall totals. This is actually through 7/30. No dice. Though the GFS gets up to 2+ inches around the coast with another surge/wave behind 91L.

https://i.imgur.com/NpniSVH.png

Canadian hasn't run far enough yet to get its rainfall estimates. So far, I think the ICON is showing the possibilities better than the GFS by far.

Yeah I don’t agree with the GFS at all. Something is wrong with that model.

[Steve]

Cmc is so bad lol

Often. But you got something recent? They didn't run the hurricane models, so I might stay up for the 06Z HRRR, but probably not. Peace.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc is so bad lol

Often. But you got something recent?

What has the cmc done well on?? 12z today show blah and now the 00z shows weak trop, just stick with the euro.

[Steve]

Cmc is so bad lol

Often. But you got something recent?

What has the cmc done well on?? 12z today show blah and now the 00z shows weak trop, just stick with the euro.

Of course. But it had a slightly better handle on some of the earlier systems than EC or GFS. And we'll find out about 7. If it can cross the Caribbean (assuming it doesn't go north of the islands or stay toward their north), it had that. And that's from this past weekend. I'm always interested in what models do what in what situations. They upgraded it a year or two ago.

[stormlover2013]

Keep believing Cmc is good model no biggie, I’ll just keep looking at the euro

[Ubuntwo]

Keep believing Cmc is good model no biggie, I’ll just keep looking at the euro

The CMC has been better with recent genesis events than the euro - it was the first of all global models to sniff out Bertha and 07L. No one model is the best in every situation, that's why the NHC values every one and forms a consensus.

[TheProfessor]

Keep believing Cmc is good model no biggie, I’ll just keep looking at the euro

The CMC has had pretty good improvements the last couple of year, I wouldn't ragging on it. It has firmly solidified itself with the other big 3(Ukie, Euro, GFS) imo and in many ways has been better than the GFS as of recent. There was a few times this spring where the Canadian outperformed the GFS and even the Euro and the Ukie. I kind of like to call it the "Meet in the middle" model because it would often have the middle solution of a trough that the GFS showed as too progressive or that the Euro and Ukie were amplifying too much. The Canadian is also the only global model that not only nailed TD Seven, but may very well have been right having it enter the Caribbean as a tropical storm. That's not to say that the model can't be wrong, but it certainly doesn't deserve to be thrown out the window. I'd say the crazy drunk Canadian finally decided to sober up.

[Steve]

Keep believing Cmc is good model no biggie, I’ll just keep looking at the euro

Yeah, because that's what I said. Ever.

[USTropics]

Keep believing Cmc is good model no biggie, I’ll just keep looking at the euro

The CMC has had pretty good improvements the last couple of year, I wouldn't ragging on it. It has firmly solidified itself with the other big 3(Ukie, Euro, GFS) imo and in many ways has been better than the GFS as of recent. There was a few times this spring where the Canadian outperformed the GFS and even the Euro and the Ukie. I kind of like to call it the "Meet in the middle" model because it would often have the middle solution of a trough that the GFS showed as too progressive or that the Euro and Ukie were amplifying too much. The Canadian is also the only global model that not only nailed TD Seven, but may very well have been right having it enter the Caribbean as a tropical storm. That's not to say that the model can't be wrong, but it certainly doesn't deserve to be thrown out the window. I'd say the crazy drunk Canadian finally decided to sober up.

Data agrees, the CMC has performed just as well as the other global models thus far this season. I wouldn't discount its forecasts, it can provide valuable guidance.

Model forecast error this season:


Model position error this season:

[Hammy]

Keep believing Cmc is good model no biggie, I’ll just keep looking at the euro

The CMC has had pretty good improvements the last couple of year, I wouldn't ragging on it. It has firmly solidified itself with the other big 3(Ukie, Euro, GFS) imo and in many ways has been better than the GFS as of recent. There was a few times this spring where the Canadian outperformed the GFS and even the Euro and the Ukie. I kind of like to call it the "Meet in the middle" model because it would often have the middle solution of a trough that the GFS showed as too progressive or that the Euro and Ukie were amplifying too much. The Canadian is also the only global model that not only nailed TD Seven, but may very well have been right having it enter the Caribbean as a tropical storm. That's not to say that the model can't be wrong, but it certainly doesn't deserve to be thrown out the window. I'd say the crazy drunk Canadian finally decided to sober up.

Data agrees, the CMC has performed just as well as the other global models thus far this season. I wouldn't discount its forecasts, it can provide valuable guidance.

Model forecast error this season:
https://i.imgur.com/Q75s2dn.gif

Model position error this season:
https://i.imgur.com/TfrciAM.gif

Is there any data regarding storm genesis? That's where I've noticed the most improvement over the last few years. Position-wise it was pretty all over the place last year with Dorian, a lot more than most others.

[USTropics]

The CMC has had pretty good improvements the last couple of year, I wouldn't ragging on it. It has firmly solidified itself with the other big 3(Ukie, Euro, GFS) imo and in many ways has been better than the GFS as of recent. There was a few times this spring where the Canadian outperformed the GFS and even the Euro and the Ukie. I kind of like to call it the "Meet in the middle" model because it would often have the middle solution of a trough that the GFS showed as too progressive or that the Euro and Ukie were amplifying too much. The Canadian is also the only global model that not only nailed TD Seven, but may very well have been right having it enter the Caribbean as a tropical storm. That's not to say that the model can't be wrong, but it certainly doesn't deserve to be thrown out the window. I'd say the crazy drunk Canadian finally decided to sober up.

Data agrees, the CMC has performed just as well as the other global models thus far this season. I wouldn't discount its forecasts, it can provide valuable guidance.

Model forecast error this season:
https://i.imgur.com/Q75s2dn.gif

Model position error this season:
https://i.imgur.com/TfrciAM.gif

Is there any data regarding storm genesis? That's where I've noticed the most improvement over the last few years. Position-wise it was pretty all over the place last year with Dorian, a lot more than most others.

It'd have to be manually calculated unfortunately. I don't see any databases that track genesis. For Dorian:

12-48 hours:


72-120 hours:


Mean position error:

[GCANE]

Interesting where CMC has this initialized now.
Could be a game changer.

[GCANE]

No doubt GFS doesn't do anything with this given the fact it is being fed total BS.

[Kingarabian]

No doubt GFS doesn't do anything with this given the fact it is being fed total BS.

It had issues with Douglas as well. I think the lack of airplane flights is hurting the models quite a bit.

[GCANE]

No doubt GFS doesn't do anything with this given the fact it is being fed total BS.

It had issues with Douglas as well. I think the lack of airplane flights is hurting the models quite a bit.

They definitely need to run Recon.