ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[KatDaddy]

Time to watch 97L closely as it moves across the Caribbean and could become a GOM threat if the ridge weakens late next week. This is the time be ready.

[SoupBone]

I’m waiting for wxman to post that it’s not going to develop into much, hehe. I don’t blame him though, If I was a Met who had to work long hours during hurricanes seasons when storms developed, I’m sure Iwould do the same thing and try and will them away. I’m sure he deserves every vacation he gets!!!

We’ll see if this invest will be a semi long tracker or not. Much to early to say. Although not too Far East, so wouldn’t technically be a long tracker

He doesn't do this though. He's just a very calculated professional.

I'm curious to see how the NHC puts there inital paths. Gonna be a long few days.

[Steve]

If it develops I would have to guess an Ivan like track (not intensity!) this early. Really has been a while since we've seen a real Caribbean cruiser.

Ivan like? Is that even possible with the upper modeling in the 12z runs that developed it? Most models that developed it showed extensive ridging with it likely going far south and west of New Orleans. Next weekend is a long way off with lots of possibilities, but super early you’d think Mexico or South Texas. Why Baldwin/Escambia/Santa Rosa Counties?

[Cpv17]

I was looking back at storms that formed in this region during similar set ups across the Atlantic. 2004 was pretty similar set up wise and saw quite a few develop in this general area. It looked Bonnie Charlie and Earl all formed around where 97l is now. Ivan aNd Frances bit further east I believe and Jeanne a little further north.

You also have to look when it forms though. It’s mid August.

Charlie formed August 9th

Yeah, but I’m pretty much just talking about climatology. Climo says anyone in the Gulf could get hit. Not just the eastern Gulf.

[Steve]

Time to watch 97L closely as it moves across the Caribbean and could become a GOM threat if the ridge weakens late next week. This is the time be ready.

? Ridge will be building in behind a trough split toward Thursday or Friday that absolutely will happen. It may be too far south to come up this way or even toward Beaumont. Threat looks south of there by a good bit imho.

[Cpv17]

Not really sure why the global models aren't developing this more. It already has a decent vorticity signature and convection has been building near the diurnal minimum. It will likely move too fast to develop for the next few days but once it slows down in the central Caribbean, development becomes more likely.

Have they developed anything all year though? No. This isn’t surprising to me that they don’t develop this feature either.

[aspen]

Not really sure why the global models aren't developing this more. It already has a decent vorticity signature and convection has been building near the diurnal minimum. It will likely move too fast to develop for the next few days but once it slows down in the central Caribbean, development becomes more likely.

I could see this becoming a TD within the next few days that remains a weak system (30-40 kt) until it slows down in the WCar later this week.

[South Texas Storms]

If it develops I would have to guess an Ivan like track (not intensity!) this early. Really has been a while since we've seen a real Caribbean cruiser.

Ivan like? Is that even possible with the upper modeling in the 12z runs that developed it? Most models that developed it showed extensive ridging with it likely going far south and west of New Orleans. Next weekend is a long way off with lots of possibilities, but super early you’d think Mexico or South Texas. Why Baldwin/Escambia/Santa Rosa Counties?

I'd have to agree with you on that Steve. Early betting favorite is somewhere across the western Gulf. But like you said, it's still far out and way too early to tell. I think anywhere in the Gulf could be in play.

Now is the time to prepare though. By next weekend there could be a mad rush if there is a developing tropical system heading into the Gulf. And chances are increasing that this will be the case.

[Kingarabian]

I think yeah, a stronger system within the next 24-36 hours means a more northerly track and not a crash into CA.

[Aric Dunn]

I say NHC goes 40/60 at 8pm. Then 60/80 2am. Then 80/80 8am. Assuming convection continues to maintain.

[eastcoastFL]

You also have to look when it forms though. It’s mid August.

Charlie formed August 9th

Yeah, but I’m pretty much just talking about climatology. Climo says anyone in the Gulf could get hit. Not just the eastern Gulf.

I totally agree with that. Ridge should be further west and whatever this turns out to be is more likely to threaten the western gulf or Mexico as of this point.

[eastcoastFL]

Floaters up for 97l

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[TheProfessor]

Time to watch 97L closely as it moves across the Caribbean and could become a GOM threat if the ridge weakens late next week. This is the time be ready.

? Ridge will be building in behind a trough split toward Thursday or Friday that absolutely will happen. It may be too far south to come up this way or even toward Beaumont. Threat looks south of there by a good bit imho.

Like always it will depend on the strength of the storm. If the storm stay weak through the Caribbean, then I agree with you. But, if we have a hurricane moving through instead, it's likely going to feel the pull from the 500mb level steering and that's going to take it further east. The earlier the storm strengthens the further east it goes. It doesn't always workout this way, but that looks to be the case this time around.

[DestinHurricane]

If it develops I would have to guess an Ivan like track (not intensity!) this early. Really has been a while since we've seen a real Caribbean cruiser.

Ivan like? Is that even possible with the upper modeling in the 12z runs that developed it? Most models that developed it showed extensive ridging with it likely going far south and west of New Orleans. Next weekend is a long way off with lots of possibilities, but super early you’d think Mexico or South Texas. Why Baldwin/Escambia/Santa Rosa Counties?

I mean the track through the carribean and into the gulf would be similar to Ivan.

Anywhere from Mexico to Marco Island is possible this far out. Cannot rule out it keeping going into CA either.

If I had to lay money on a landfall this far out, I would go with central Louisiana. That is because 1, The trend now is a stronger system so that would mean a more east track and 2, in general shifts to the east are more common than west.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the CMC brings a weakish cane into Texas 8/25 or 8/26

[Cpv17]

18z GFS still not really onboard with development. Maybe a td. Just looks like sheared early season slop storm in the Gulf.

[IsabelaWeather]

I must admit, this is looking a lot better than I thought it would just a few hours ago. I still have a hard time believing this will get it's act together quickly because of its forward speed.

If it could slow down a little then it's off to the races. It has really a really great environment and OHC ahead...

[ConvergenceZone]

18z GFS still not really onboard with development. Maybe a td. Just looks like sheared early season slop storm in the Gulf.

It will probably jump on board later. I’ve seen this a gazillion times

[Steve]

Time to watch 97L closely as it moves across the Caribbean and could become a GOM threat if the ridge weakens late next week. This is the time be ready.

? Ridge will be building in behind a trough split toward Thursday or Friday that absolutely will happen. It may be too far south to come up this way or even toward Beaumont. Threat looks south of there by a good bit imho.

Like always it will depend on the strength of the storm. If the storm stay weak through the Caribbean, then I agree with you. But, if we have a hurricane moving through instead, it's likely going to feel the pull from the 500mb level steering and that's going to take it further east. The earlier the storm strengthens the further east it goes. It doesn't always workout this way, but that looks to be the case this time around.

Most of the upper models I looked at had the split and resulting weakness across LA/MS. If 97L had a few days head start, I think that it more likely would have felt that weakness particularly since it will slow down. Also if it's moving slowly in the central Gulf I can see that. But they also show a solid push in from the East/ESE as the trough otherwise lifts out. So maybe there is a magic latitude it could be at where a N or NW track could be more likely. It'll be cool to watch all week, and I'll try to post when I can on the models thread.

[SoupBone]

Time to watch 97L closely as it moves across the Caribbean and could become a GOM threat if the ridge weakens late next week. This is the time be ready.

? Ridge will be building in behind a trough split toward Thursday or Friday that absolutely will happen. It may be too far south to come up this way or even toward Beaumont. Threat looks south of there by a good bit imho.

Like always it will depend on the strength of the storm. If the storm stay weak through the Caribbean, then I agree with you. But, if we have a hurricane moving through instead, it's likely going to feel the pull from the 500mb level steering and that's going to take it further east. The earlier the storm strengthens the further east it goes. It doesn't always workout this way, but that looks to be the case this time around.

How far east would you say is possible at this point?