ATL: ZETA - Models

[gatorcane]

Looks like a weakness opens up over the Florida peninsula before a ridge builds back in 78 hours. So if 95l deepens more quickly, one would think it gets pulled more north:

[Ivanhater]

Another northern gulf coast storm?



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[LarryWx]

6Z EPS: most active yet with ~20% with a TC: watch out N Gulf coast, especially

[ronjon]

Interesting that neither 06z GFS para or HWRF really strengthen it in the GOM. Upper level conditions, dry air, or cooler SSTs....take your pick?

[LarryWx]

6Z EPS rainfall:

[aspen]

For what it’s worth, the 06z ICON has 95L stall long enough to become a hurricane as it moves into the Gulf in 96-99 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

The 00z ECM Ensembles up to 90% chance of Tropical Depression developing.

[SFLcane]

6Z EPS rainfall:

https://i.imgur.com/SrT28Yf.png

1-3 inches for SFL most of it stays east and south.

[cp79]

Another northern gulf coast storm?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201023/c5b5c8dc832c50db7242867754799fc8.jpg

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That’s good news for Fla. Looks like most of it will be spared again although the panhandle may get hit.

[Iceresistance]

Another northern gulf coast storm?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201023/c5b5c8dc832c50db7242867754799fc8.jpg

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That’s good news for Fla. Looks like most of it will be spared again although the panhandle may get hit.

Like Michael in 2018

[Iceresistance]

Looks like a weakness opens up over the Florida peninsula before a ridge builds back in 78 hours. So if 95l deepens more quickly, one would think it gets pulled more north:

https://i.postimg.cc/mr86bpLF/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh0-78.gif

The Trough might force the system north or northeast like the NHC suggested.

[SFLcane]

12z models swinging eastward quite a bit.

[gatorcane]

12z models swinging eastward quite a bit.

[plasticup]

Huge model spread. I wonder if they'll send recon to get better data.

[Iceresistance]

Huge model spread. I wonder if they'll send recon to get better data.

The center of circulation is rather broad.

[gatorcane]

Another look at the short wave over the Rockies the GFS moves quickly east. My hunch is that this system will be an Eastern Gulf threat and not a northern Gulf threat. Climo suggests that also.

[Evil Jeremy]

My hunch is that this system will be an Eastern Gulf threat and not a panhandle or northern Gulf threat.

Aka Florida west coast?

[TheStormExpert]

12z models swinging eastward quite a bit.

https://i.postimg.cc/c4nPNNvK/95-L-tracks-12z.png

Quite a consensus!

Just throw a dart at the map and see where it lands.

[MississippiWx]

12z models swinging eastward quite a bit.

https://i.postimg.cc/c4nPNNvK/95-L-tracks-12z.png

Looks like they've got it under control.

[northjaxpro]

The 00Z EURO ensembles are a bit slower in progression of the shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Southern Plains next week.

GFS is more progressive. This shortwave definitely holds the key on what eventually unfolds with 95L/ potential Zeta next week.

The 12Z EURO package will be interesting, along with the 12Z UKMET.