WPAC: ETAU - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 120.8E, APPROXIMATELY 96
NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) STRUGGLING AGAINST THE
FRICTION EFFECTS FROM THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. A 072243Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG WITH SHALLOWER
CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING TO THE EAST. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING HEAVILY OFFSET BY MODERATE
TO UNFAVORABLE (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION
AS 92W TRANSITS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION
WHILE OVER THE PHILIPPINES. AFTER 92W ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER, MODELS EXPECT IT TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO
WARNING THRESHOLD WITH MINIMAL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[Hayabusa]

Since 00Z

TD
Issued at 04:05 UTC, 8 November 2020

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 8 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°40' (12.7°)
E120°40' (120.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 8 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N12°30' (12.5°)
E116°50' (116.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 9 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°30' (12.5°)
E114°00' (114.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°25' (12.4°)
E110°00' (110.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N12°35' (12.6°)
E105°25' (105.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 080930

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (W OF LUZON)

B. 08/0900Z

C. 13.01N

D. 117.15E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


YOUNG

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 120.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 119.0E, APPROXIMATELY
152 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) NOW ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT LEAVES THE FRICTIONAL
ENVIRONMENT OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. A 072243Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD
WITH MINIMAL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 080317
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 08/0230Z

C. 13.6N

D. 118.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. THIS SYSTEM
IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS WILL
BE THE LAST CLASSIFICATION UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

JTWC has renumbered.

WP, 24, 2020110812, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1179E, 25, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 140, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYFOUR, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpF22020 to wp242020,

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 081231

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (W OF LUZON)

B. 08/1200Z

C. 12.87N

D. 118.51E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


YOUNG

[LarryWx]

Though expected to be relatively weak wind wise, the model consensus continues to show very heavy rains over already flood ravaged central Vietnam within the next few days from this.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (ETAU)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081746Z ATMS
88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
WITH LIMITED BANDING WRAPPING OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF A WEAKLY-
DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED ON
PGTW/RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SST VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. TD 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK QUICKLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN VIETNAM NEAR TAU 30. AFTER TAU
30, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN BY TAU 48. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 33NM AT LANDFALL
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE 08/1200Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES GREATER SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY AT LANDFALL
WITH A 90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS (LANDFALL CENTER LOCATION FROM 12.5N
TO 14.0N).//
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

Etau is really hauling... Not gonna have much time to do much. Which is good for Vietnam who have been a magnet this year

[LarryWx]

Etau is really hauling... Not gonna have much time to do much. Which is good for Vietnam who have been a magnet this year

But check out the Vietnam rainfall on the 18Z GFS and flooding rain has been their biggest problem:

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 090024

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (ETAU)

B. 09/0000Z

C. 12.92N

D. 113.56E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.5 DT. MET YIELDS A 2.0 AND PT YIELDS A 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/1837Z 12.80N 114.20E ATMS
08/2014Z 12.87N 114.52E SSMI
08/2029Z 12.83N 114.43E SSMS


BERMEA

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 082136
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 24W (ETAU)

B. 08/2030Z

C. 13.3N

D. 114.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR MET AND PT. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS
DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. FT IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 3.3
AND JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS. MET=2.5. PT=3.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[euro6208]

24W ETAU 201109 0000 12.8N 113.3E WPAC 35 996

[euro6208]

Center right under the deep convection. Possibly a tab stronger.

Etau at 35 knots



Eta at 55 knots.

[ElectricStorm]

Etau is really hauling... Not gonna have much time to do much. Which is good for Vietnam who have been a magnet this year

But check out the Vietnam rainfall on the 18Z GFS and flooding rain has been their biggest problem:

https://i.imgur.com/wQLDzwo.png

Yeah that's crazy. Haven't checked the model runs for 93W but there might be a chance that one could hit them too behind Etau

[ElectricStorm]

Center right under the deep convection. Possibly a tab stronger.

Etau at 35 knots

https://i.imgur.com/DRISN7K.gif

Eta at 55 knots.

https://i.imgur.com/VHvFcCT.gif

Looks ain't everything
*Looks at Eta's first peak*

[mrbagyo]