ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank P]

It’s by far the best it’s look to date, hints of circulation, building convection... much much improved from even earlier this morning... dang!

[EquusStorm]

Isidore in 2002 formed ridiculously far south just east of Trinidad and Tobago, much further east than this, but clipped northern South America and dropped to a wave for a while; that's the closest recent one I can remember

[wx98]

Isidore in 2002 formed ridiculously far south just east of Trinidad and Tobago, much further east than this, but clipped northern South America and dropped to a wave for a while; that's the closest recent one I can remember

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ae/Isidore_2002_track.png/528px-Isidore_2002_track.png

Side note, interesting that this storm was from the same list. It was replaced by Ike and then Isaias.

[EquusStorm]

Come to think of it Charley was also really low latitude, and closer to this time of year climatologically. Hopefully not too many 2004 parallels with this year's tracks though for obvious reasons.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Isidore in 2002 formed ridiculously far south just east of Trinidad and Tobago, much further east than this, but clipped northern South America and dropped to a wave for a while; that's the closest recent one I can remember

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ae/Isidore_2002_track.png/528px-Isidore_2002_track.png

Isidore definitely had a unique track!

[northjaxpro]

Looking pretty good this morning, gradually trying to get itself together in the Eastern Caribbean this morning. I an still not expecting significant development until it gets into the NW Caribbean in a few days.

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I posted this nearly 4 hours ago. 97L is looking even better now on visible and IR satellite imagery.

[GCANE]

Looking pretty good this morning, gradually trying to get itself together in the Eastern Caribbean this morning. I an still not expecting significant development until it gets into the NW Caribbean in a few days.

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I posted this nearly 4 hours ago. 97L is looking even better now on visible and IR satellite imagery.

Seeing some slight winds from the NW on the SE side of the convection on IR.
Nothing yet on radar or surface obs.

[Shell Mound]

This could potentially become a tropical storm near the northernmost Yucatán Peninsula and the Yucatán Channel in about three and a half to four days, but its window for organisation may be brief. First the system will need to contend with lingering outflow from Genevieve, and then it may encounter northeasterly shear as anticyclonic flow impinges on the system from the north, particularly by day six. Additionally, outflow from 98L may or may not promote additional shear over the system. However, VWS seems relatively low by eighty-four to ninety-six hours, and the system will benefit from both frictional convergence and southerly inflow as a trough swings by to the north. So we could certainly see a short-lived TS that then weakens and dies out over the southern Gulf as it meanders about.

[Nimbus]

Classic Caribbean tumbleweed with potentially multiple centers.
Some low level outflow boundary clouds near the rear of the circulation but the broader circulation just looks tilted toward the ENE with altitude. Still plenty of evacuation going on so once this slows down west of Jamaica it has a chance.

[MGC]

97L don't look too good today...lots of outflow boundaries...might do something when it gets in the WCarb.....MGC

[northjaxpro]

I mentioned earlier the best chances for development would be in NW Caribbean, provided if if does not go inland CA or Yucatan P. late in the medium range.

[GCANE]

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/83cTf3j.png

for thursday afternoon. wow they are really expecting to slow down that much...

[Aric Dunn]

There are some weak easterly moving low level clouds on the south side.

another prolonged burst of convection would likely get this going on a path to development sooner rather than later.

[captainbarbossa19]

Isidore in 2002 formed ridiculously far south just east of Trinidad and Tobago, much further east than this, but clipped northern South America and dropped to a wave for a while; that's the closest recent one I can remember

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ae/Isidore_2002_track.png/528px-Isidore_2002_track.png

While there is not much model support for this type of intensity, this recent storm really isn't that far off the current track of 97L.


Hurricane Harvey

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce
an area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds. This wave
is moving quickly westward at about 20 mph and significant
development is unlikely while it moves across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. After that time,
however, the wave is forecast to slow down, and a tropical
depression will likely form late this week or this weekend when it
reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah definitely some easterly moving low level cloud lines of the south side at around the 850 to 925 mb level. would need a good convective burst to work that to the surface.

[davidiowx]

Isidore in 2002 formed ridiculously far south just east of Trinidad and Tobago, much further east than this, but clipped northern South America and dropped to a wave for a while; that's the closest recent one I can remember

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ae/Isidore_2002_track.png/528px-Isidore_2002_track.png

While there is not much model support for this type of intensity, this recent storm really isn't that far off the current track of 97L.


Hurricane Harvey

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1d/Harvey_2017_track.png

NO THANK YOU!

[GCANE]

Winds beginning to turn

[Aric Dunn]

Winds beginning to turn

https://i.imgur.com/T0A5SsG.png

Interesting. I noticed the eastward moving clouds down there but figured it would take a little more convection to close it off at the surface..