ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Impressive.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
This one has major written all over it
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Teddy could be the one to quiet the MDR naysaers. With potential Wilfred right behind we might get a couple of nice long track strong MDR storms.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!
That's an synoptic mission, not low level recon
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ubuntwo wrote:aspen wrote:Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!
That's an synoptic mission, not low level recon
That's important too, gotta see what the ridges and troughs are actually doing out there. Should help the models provide a better picture of where this thing will go.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ubuntwo wrote:aspen wrote:Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!
That's an synoptic mission, not low level recon
Darn. At least there’ll be some on Thursday.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It looks like Teddy is, once again, slightly SW of the forecast track. It is taking a lot longer to take a sharp turn than expected.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
TXNT21 KNES 151817
TCSNTL
A. 20L (TEDDY)
B. 15/1730Z
C. 14.1N
D. 47.3W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN OW YIELDS DT OF 3.5. MET IS 3.0 AND PT
IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
15/1642Z 14.0N 47.2W AMSR2
...MLEVINE
Looks closer to T4.0 to me. I'd go with 60 kt for the intensity.
TCSNTL
A. 20L (TEDDY)
B. 15/1730Z
C. 14.1N
D. 47.3W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN OW YIELDS DT OF 3.5. MET IS 3.0 AND PT
IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
15/1642Z 14.0N 47.2W AMSR2
...MLEVINE
Looks closer to T4.0 to me. I'd go with 60 kt for the intensity.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2020 Time : 185017 UTC
Lat : 14:21:09 N Lon : 47:31:26 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.3mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.6
Center Temp : -35.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2020 Time : 185017 UTC
Lat : 14:21:09 N Lon : 47:31:26 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.3mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.6
Center Temp : -35.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wx98 wrote:UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2020 Time : 185017 UTC
Lat : 14:21:09 N Lon : 47:31:26 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.3mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.6
Center Temp : -35.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
3.0? I'm not that good at Dvorak but that seems a little low
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Teddy is continuing to trend SW of the official forecast track, definitely a North component but no turn in sight
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Weather Dude wrote:wx98 wrote:UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2020 Time : 185017 UTC
Lat : 14:21:09 N Lon : 47:31:26 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.3mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.6
Center Temp : -35.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
3.0? I'm not that good at Dvorak but that seems a little low
Yeah I think there is some underestimation going on here.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
[*]
This is correct. He is going just a hair slightly north of due west currently.in forward motion. They relocated his cenyer position southwest yesterday. We have to watch Teddy closely. This is not yet a sure bet it will stay harmlesss out to sea. A couple of models take him farther west. Also, we are seeing the eyewall developing quite well this afternoon. Teddy is well on its way to probably becoming the strongest N. Atlantic basin tropical cyclone to this juncture of the season.
aspen wrote:It looks like Teddy is, once again, slightly SW of the forecast track. It is taking a lot longer to take a sharp turn than expected.
This is correct. He is going just a hair slightly north of due west currently.in forward motion. They relocated his cenyer position southwest yesterday. We have to watch Teddy closely. This is not yet a sure bet it will stay harmlesss out to sea. A couple of models take him farther west. Also, we are seeing the eyewall developing quite well this afternoon. Teddy is well on its way to probably becoming the strongest N. Atlantic basin tropical cyclone to this juncture of the season.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote:[*]aspen wrote:It looks like Teddy is, once again, slightly SW of the forecast track. It is taking a lot longer to take a sharp turn than expected.
This is correct. He is going just a hair slightly north of due west currently.in forward motion. We have to watch Teddy closely. This is not yet a sure bet it will stay harmlesss out to sea. A couple of models take him farther west. Also, we are seeing the eyewall developing quite well this afternoon. Teddy is on its well on its way to probably becoming the strongest N. Atlantic basin tropical cyclone to this juncture of the season.
I hope it becomes a non-landfalling Cat 5 like Lorenzo (except without the ship-sinking). That’ll add another major to the list, give a massive ACE boost, and also give a boost to the Instantaneous Cyclone Energy of the season (it’s this instantaneous intensity measurement similar to ACE that I’ve been using for the past few years). The further west Teddy goes, the more 28-29C SSTs he’ll run into at 18-25N.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
...STEADY TEDDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Steady Teddy! I like it.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The NHC mentions a good microwave structure that looks like that of a system getting ready to intensify, and I have to agree. This was from 5 hours ago.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:The NHC mentions a good microwave structure that looks like that of a system getting ready to intensify, and I have to agree. This was from 5 hours ago.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al20/amsusr89/2020al20_amsusr89_202009151524.gif
Not sure that's gonna need 60 hours to become a major.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Should be a hurricane very shortly, if not one already.
I'll go out on a limb and say 125 knot peak.
I'll go out on a limb and say 125 knot peak.
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