ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

I think the EC Ensembles have the track NAILED!

http://wxman57.com/images/ECEnsembles.png

Hail Ensembles! Winning post of the day lol

[CrazyC83]

That's the key question - circulation strong enough for TD22?

[GCANE]

There is some mid-level shear and a 4000 CAPE pool just to the NE of the CoC.
With the obvious cold pool, this will likely pulse with convection much like Sally.

[ClarCari]

 https://twitter.com/wenybielfeldwx/status/1306713493865889793

[Steve]

Got my cast off this afternoon - only a wrist brace. The titanium has fused with my skeleton to make me extra strong. As for 90L, there is much uncertainty in its long-term future. Models agree it will move steadily northward for 2-3 days then run into weak steering currents. During that 2-3 days, it will be ingesting a lot of dry air from behind the front. It may even merge with the front for a while. However, by early next week, the frontal boundary will be dissipating, allowing for strengthening. General thinking is a drift westward toward the lower to middle Texas coast early next week. Big question is - does it just continue moving west and inland into TX Tuesday, as per the GFS? Does it only approach the TX coast then stall,waiting for a passing trof to the north to pick it up and steer it NE (Euro, ICON)? UKMET takes it to the coast of MX south of Brownsville next Tue/Wed and stalls it. It did very well with Sally.

I have it moving toward TX Mon/Tue, dipping SW then turning E-ENE Wed-Thu (70kt hurricane at day 7). Would rather it just move inland into south TX or Mexico early next week. That could happen...

WX - Do you think Houston is in play for this one?

Not 57, but I do think SETX could see considerable rainfall from this.

It's hard to say. You might be able to better tell by tomorrow's 18z or 00z runs after how the upper pattern might evolve. For precipitation to be squeezed out in SE Texas, you're going to have to have it not butted up against a SW flow from the deep trough. Maybe it backs a little and allows some coastal rains. Maybe it's back farther and you can get some. But it's kind of dicey. Here's what you have so far (and it's too early)

GFS (thru 7pm Wed) - lots of rain in South Texas, but only a little in SE Texas for the 7 days upcoming. The 2" line does go a bit inland, so it's possible on the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 718&fh=150

CMC 12z has feet of rain offshore
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=150

ICON 18z is similar through 120
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 718&fh=144

HWRF 12z brings preciptable water up there. Weird run, makes a run for S LA and loops back around and tries for SW LA but curves into Galveston Bay, crosses South Houston (aka The South - what up Flip?) before looping back into the Gulf. That's a pretty random run. It's a coil track.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=90

[ColdMiser123]

LLC is a tad broad, but there have been plenty of classified systems with a more broad LLC structure (Barry), and less of a clear defined LLC (Laura to start). Going to just be a subjective decision by the NHC on whether to classify this or not.

[us89]

LLC is a tad broad, but there have been plenty of classified systems with a more broad LLC structure (Barry), and less of a clear defined LLC (Laura to start). Going to just be a subjective decision by the NHC on whether to classify this or not.

Might as well classify it sooner than later, I would think. Since it's likely this will affect land at some point - and a decent chance it does so as a TS - probably better to give it a permanent identifier sooner than later?

That said, I would not want to have to come up with a forecast track for this right now.

[Blinhart]

LLC is a tad broad, but there have been plenty of classified systems with a more broad LLC structure (Barry), and less of a clear defined LLC (Laura to start). Going to just be a subjective decision by the NHC on whether to classify this or not.

Might as well classify it sooner than later, I would think. Since it's likely this will affect land at some point - and a decent chance it does so as a TS - probably better to give it a permanent identifier sooner than later?

That said, I would not want to have to come up with a forecast track for this right now.

No, they don't classify unless they have the measurements and evidence to do it.

[wxman57]

Yes, there was one SFMR spike to 35 kts, but FL winds were only 20-25 kts. That wind speed does not appear representative of any circulation around this very weak low. Circulation looks too weak and broad to classify today.

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty Two, located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC).

[Aric Dunn]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty Two, located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC).

Not surprised more than enoug evidence for an upgrade.

[Blinhart]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty Two, located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC).

Well there we go, I was expecting it to happen about this time or maybe a few hours later.

[Cpv17]

WX - Do you think Houston is in play for this one?

Not 57, but I do think SETX could see considerable rainfall from this.

It's hard to say. You might be able to better tell by tomorrow's 18z or 00z runs after how the upper pattern might evolve. For precipitation to be squeezed out in SE Texas, you're going to have to have it not butted up against a SW flow from the deep trough. Maybe it backs a little and allows some coastal rains. Maybe it's back farther and you can get some. But it's kind of dicey. Here's what you have so far (and it's too early)

GFS (thru 7pm Wed) - lots of rain in South Texas, but only a little in SE Texas for the 7 days upcoming. The 2" line does go a bit inland, so it's possible on the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 718&fh=150

CMC 12z has feet of rain offshore
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=150

ICON 18z is similar through 120
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 718&fh=144

HWRF 12z brings preciptable water up there. Weird run, makes a run for S LA and loops back around and tries for SW LA but curves into Galveston Bay, crosses South Houston (aka The South - what up Flip?) before looping back into the Gulf. That's a pretty random run. It's a coil track.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=90

Latest GFS goes crazy with the rain. I sure hope we get something here. I’ve had less than an inch in the past 7 weeks.

[Hurricane Jed]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty Two, located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC).

Perfect timing. Will be interested to see what this one will do

[ClarCari]

Already a 70MPH forecast peak

[AnnularCane]

Teddy didn't get to have the Atlantic to himself for very long, I guess.

[Blinhart]

So they are saying they have no idea where, when, or how strong Wilfred will get.

[davidiowx]

252
WTNT42 KNHC 172300
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
developed a sufficiently well-defined circulation, with SFMR wind
data suggesting an intensity of about 30 kt. In addition, the
associated convection is organized enough for SAB and TAFB to
provide Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 30 kt. Based on
this information, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Twenty-Two.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 035/4. During the
next 48 h or so, the cyclone should be steered slowly
north-northeastward by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and
northern Mexico. After that time, the global models are in good
agreement that this trough will weaken and lift out to the
northeast, with a weak mid-level ridge building to the north of the
cyclone. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west at a
continued slow forward speed. Although the cyclone is relatively
close to land, the vast majority of the track guidance keeps the
system offshore for the next five days. The official forecast will
follow this scenario, with the forecast track being between the HCCA
corrected consensus and the other consensus models.

The large-scale models suggest that the cyclone will be in an
environment of light to moderate vertical wind shear for the next
several days. Some dry air entrainment may occur after 48 h.
The bulk of the intensity guidance keeps the system below hurricane
strength during the forecast period. The official intensity
forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows the system
peaking as a tropical storm, but it lies a little above the
intensity consensus.

As mentioned above, the cyclone is likely to stay offshore during
the forecast period. Therefore, it is too early to tell which parts
of the coast of the Gulf of Mexico will get wind, storm surge, and
rain impacts from this system


Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm while
moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few
days.

2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests
throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system and future updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2300Z 21.9N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 22.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 23.8N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 24.8N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 25.4N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 25.8N 93.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 26.1N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 26.1N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 25.6N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg/Beven

[supercane4867]

Too bad 98L is struggling that we can’t get the name Alpha from this :-/

[aspen]

Too bad 98L is struggling that we can’t get the name Alpha from this :-/

I wouldn’t write 98L off just yet. If it remains weak and Teddy exits the scene quicker, it’ll have a better chance of getting near or in the Caribbean. Anything that could have time to form and intensify in the Caribbean needs to be watched.