ATL: ZETA - Models

[Blown Away]

06z Euro & GFS @400 miles apart in the 3-4 day range, that’s huge. Something is going to give with the models soon, I’m thinking Zeta is going to spend more time than forecasted meandering in the NW Caribbean and/or over Yucatan Peninsula. Climatology is so overwhelming against a landfall W of @Pensacola in late October.

[Blown Away]

Looking at the 06z GFS ensembles. The operational landfalls @MS/Bama and nearly all ensembles to the W are very weak and the ensembles to the E are mostly strong hurricanes.

[cp79]

Still looking good for the Fla peninsula but panhandle could be increasingly in trouble.

[NDG]

06 Euro ensembles much weaker, might be a reason for its more western track.
I think is safe to say that a stronger Zeta could mean a more eastward track, though the strength of the ridge moving over FL the couple of days will also have a big play as the cut off ULL that will eject out of the SW US.

[NDG]

A reason to dismiss the 06z GFS Para track, it shows it hitting the western tip of Cuba, that's not happening.

[aspen]

A reason to dismiss the 06z GFS Para track, it shows it hitting the western tip of Cuba, that's not happening.

https://i.imgur.com/jZqe306.png

It also initialized Zeta WAY too far north. Just like with Delta, it has a N bias for WCar systems.

[Blown Away]

A reason to dismiss the 06z GFS Para track, it shows it hitting the western tip of Cuba, that's not happening.

https://i.imgur.com/jZqe306.png

Agree, but 11pm predicted Zeta at 19.2N at 12z and Zeta at @17.8N... That’s @70 miles and of Zeta strengthens faster than expected, which is possible, the E shifts are going to happen.

[cp79]

A reason to dismiss the 06z GFS Para track, it shows it hitting the western tip of Cuba, that's not happening.

https://i.imgur.com/jZqe306.png

Agree, but 11pm predicted Zeta at 19.2N at 12z and Zeta at @17.8N... That’s @70 miles and of Zeta strengthens faster than expected, which is possible, the E shifts are going to happen.

East shifts at landfall, I agree. I think Pensacola and Mobile now more under the gun. But for the next 72-96 hours, I think this stays still and then eventually moves NW into S. Central Gulf as HP will guide it there before the front moves in. If there was no HP coming in, I’d agree this thing would move more East short term. But there won’t be any easterly move until the front and by then it should be well into the Gulf. I still wouldn’t rule out New Orleans and La. as it could swing wide left like Delta bc of HP.

[blp]

As the uncertainty grows. Here are some hypothetical scenarios using our less sophisticated dynamic models. The deeper system will follow the blue line. Climo is represented by the red lines for those that follow that. I think the blue is certainly possible the longer it sits down there.



Close-up

[blp]

Shifts last few days:

[bella_may]

12Z GFS shifted west to MS coast

[Frank P]

12Z GFS shifted west to MS coast

12z ICON shifted west to SELA Cat 1 985 mb

[cp79]

These west shifts continue. Texas could be back in play.

[GeneratorPower]

These west shifts continue. Texas could be back in play.

Come on man. Same deal as last time. Creole, LA.

[blp]

If these south shifts are confirmed by recon then models are going to be off. They are all too far North and had this slowly moving NNW today instead of SSW. Too early to put any stock in the models until this finally consolidates.

[Frank P]

12z HMON stronger MS coast 989 mb GPT/BIL center

[cp79]

Euro shifting WAY west. Landfall appears to be Texas or right on the border. Wow. Huge west shifts today.

[Blown Away]

Euro shifting WAY west. Landfall appears to be Texas or right on the border. Wow. Huge west shifts today.

Very weak, maybe TD/Low end TS strength as Euro goes W...

[Stormcenter]

Maybe the trough is not going to sweep through as
quickly as originally thought.

[cp79]

Maybe the trough is not going to sweep through as
quickly as originally thought.

I think it’s the timing. Euro moves this pretty quick once HP takes over. I think that’s why you’re seeing the shifts today. Has more to do with the strength of the ridge blocking it from moving right and pushing it left.

Only thing I’d caution is the Mitch scenario where the core of Zeta gets trapped and drifts south Into Honduras which it looks to be close to doing now. I don’t think that’ll happen but the strongest storms right now have been pushed south today and it’s barely above land. Center could relocate south. It is a bit of a curveball what’s going on right now bc it seems stuck.