ATL: LAURA - Models

[gqhebert]

Why the sudden shift away from the HWRF now?

High pressure building to the West and the trough and weakness from Marco IMHO

[La Breeze]

Will the high pressure be strong enough to keep Laura out of Louisiana altogether and keep her moving on to TX? Thoughts?

[shiny-pebble]

06z HWRF expects a center reformation north of PR which is why its so north. That happens within the next 12 hours so we have to see if that verifies today.

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[La Breeze]

Why the sudden shift away from the HWRF now?

High pressure building to the West and the trough and weakness from Marco IMHO

I thought that the high pressure was building over the southeast US and not to the west?

[gqhebert]

Why the sudden shift away from the HWRF now?

High pressure building to the West and the trough and weakness from Marco IMHO

I thought that the high pressure was building over the southeast US and not to the west?

There is a trough in the eastern Gulf currently that is what is moving Marco to the NW .. That trough is lifting out and the high is building in which would favor a more western solution depending on if Laura can survive the GA mountains

[shiny-pebble]

06z HWRF still wants an easterly solution. It's been very consistent for track and intensity, thats for sure

[cp79]

I know I’m in the minority, but this thing is going to have a hard time making it out alive if it tracks over the heart of the DR and Cuba like it appears it may do. It’s got a tough battle ahead.

[kevin]

HWRF has a 940 - 945 mbar landfall near Mobile. It's been quite consistent and has performed pretty well in the short term with this storm as mentioned in the discussion thread. But indeed the big question is whether the North center reformation shown in the runs actually takes place.

[aspen]

HWRF has a 940 - 945 mbar landfall. You can say what you want about HWRF, but it's been consistent and has performed quite well in the short term with this storm. But indeed the big question is whether the North reformation shown in the runs actually takes place.

https://i.imgur.com/9qpCHtB.png

Today is the make-or-break day for Laura and the HWRF’s forecasts. It’s been doing very well for short-term predictions of Laura’s convective structure, as well as some internal dynamics, but we have yet to see if it’ll correctly predict that northern center reformation. If that happens, then we’ll have to take its bonkers intensity estimates seriously.

[lsuhurricane]

06z Euro really complicating the track. Maintains a solid Marco to the LA coast. Laura rides the northern edge of Cuba and follows Marcos track to near the SE LA coast by the 90th hour

[tiger_deF]

If I was a forecaster I'd be tearing out my hair right now

[aspen]

Most of the globals seem to be agreeing on this solution: Laura tracks over most of the Greater Antilles, but emerges into the Gulf in 72 hours and intensifies until landfall in TX/LA in 120 hours.

[Frank P]

06z Euro really complicating the track. Maintains a solid Marco to the LA coast. Laura rides the northern edge of Cuba and follows Marcos track to near the SE LA coast by the 90th hour

Can anyone post an image of the 06 Euro, or tell me the intensity and specific landfall locations of each system please... extrapolations welcomed if he run is stopped prior to landfall
Much appreciated

[rockyman]

06z Euro really complicating the track. Maintains a solid Marco to the LA coast. Laura rides the northern edge of Cuba and follows Marcos track to near the SE LA coast by the 90th hour

Does the 06z Euro show a landfall point for Laura? Is it east of the 00z Euro? Thanks!

[Jr0d]

I know I’m in the minority, but this thing is going to have a hard time making it out alive if it tracks over the heart of the DR and Cuba like it appears it may do. It’s got a tough battle ahead.

Erika in 2015 is a good analog for that scenario.

Still not feeling safe in Key West. If the HWRF verifies, it will be too late for an evacuation. The HWRF and the 'John Hope rule' suggest it will skirt just north of Hispaniola. Worst case scenario for me.

[lsuhurricane]

06z Euro really complicating the track. Maintains a solid Marco to the LA coast. Laura rides the northern edge of Cuba and follows Marcos track to near the SE LA coast by the 90th hour

Does the 06z Euro show a landfall point for Laura? Is it east of the 00z Euro? Thanks!

The 6/18z euro runs only go to 90 hours. But it is further East at the same time interval than the 0z run

[jlauderdal]

I know I’m in the minority, but this thing is going to have a hard time making it out alive if it tracks over the heart of the DR and Cuba like it appears it may do. It’s got a tough battle ahead.

Erika in 2015 is a good analog for that scenario.

Still not feeling safe in Key West. If the HWRF verifies, it will be too late for an evacuation. The HWRF and the 'John Hope rule' suggest it will skirt just north of Hispaniola. Worst case scenario for me.

Since when did conchs evacuate?

[eastcoastFL]

Wow just woke up and looking at IR its super similar to what the HWRF modeled. If it keeps verifying expect lots of convection to fire off today.

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Where does the HWRF take her?

HWRF sticking to Alabama/fl border

[Jr0d]

Since when did conchs evacuate?

Hotels are still open for business, generally with a potential hurricane tourists are ordered out first.

Right now we have a mandatory evacuation for mobile homes, RVs, and liveaboard boats but hotels are still open.

Hopefully Laura will get shredded up and our impact will be minimal, if it does manage to go more north over night and miss the shredder Hispaniola we will be in a situation where we have 24 hours to evacuate before the weather starts deteriorating...I really do not want to see the HWRF verify.

The CMC is also showing Laura miss the shredder, but keeps it weak when it hits the Keys. The EURO appears to be showing a strengthening storm just south of the Keys.

While the general consensus by the Conchs is the storm will be inhibited by the shredder, clearly there is a lot of uncertainty and a cause for concern.

[cp79]

I know I’m in the minority, but this thing is going to have a hard time making it out alive if it tracks over the heart of the DR and Cuba like it appears it may do. It’s got a tough battle ahead.

Erika in 2015 is a good analog for that scenario.

Still not feeling safe in Key West. If the HWRF verifies, it will be too late for an evacuation. The HWRF and the 'John Hope rule' suggest it will skirt just north of Hispaniola. Worst case scenario for me.

And Debby 2000. They sit in the graveyard of hurricanes that have died in Hispaniola. HMON does what I think it will and crush this storm. I’m just not convinced yet it will come out alive like it suggests. The center is going to get torn apart if it goes over those highest mountains. I’ve just seen this play out so many times. We’ll see what happens.