ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Recon now heading towards the MLC.

[Blown Away]

NHC is in a small pickle. Models overall shifted slightly West since 5am, but the NHC track is still slightly West of the TCVN. My guess is NHC makes very minimal, if any, adjustments to the track. Makes sense to wait until after there's a center reformation.

Maintaining the track would put SE FL about 36 hours away from the possibility of TS winds (going by their Earliest Reasonable graphic). If there was less uncertainty than what currently exists, it would make sense for the NHC to issue TS Watches for portions of E FL at 11am. I'd wager that doesn't happen, and NHC punts that decision to 5pm, when hopefully there's much more clarity regarding the LLC reformation.

Maybe...12z guidance now all mostly offshore SFL all the strong winds with this all NE of llc.

Not the EURO.

[chaser1]

NHC is in a small pickle. Models overall shifted slightly West since 5am, but the NHC track is still slightly West of the TCVN. My guess is NHC makes very minimal, if any, adjustments to the track. Makes sense to wait until after there's a center reformation.

Maintaining the track would put SE FL about 36 hours away from the possibility of TS winds (going by their Earliest Reasonable graphic). If there was less uncertainty than what currently exists, it would make sense for the NHC to issue TS Watches for portions of E FL at 11am. I'd wager that doesn't happen, and NHC punts that decision to 5pm, when hopefully there's much more clarity regarding the LLC reformation.

Really a good point. I think that the combination of slower forward motion along with the anticipated disruption of the overall circulation, that the timing for approach to S. Florida might be delayed by at least a few hours. I suppose I could see T.S. Watches raised at noon for the Florida Keys but i'd guess that NHC will wait until 5:00pm to do the same for mainland S. Florida. This would also buy a bit of added time to take into account 12Z EURO model trend as well. Right now, i'd guess there will be practically no change to overall track at the upcoming advisory.

[SFLcane]

NHC is in a small pickle. Models overall shifted slightly West since 5am, but the NHC track is still slightly West of the TCVN. My guess is NHC makes very minimal, if any, adjustments to the track. Makes sense to wait until after there's a center reformation.

Maintaining the track would put SE FL about 36 hours away from the possibility of TS winds (going by their Earliest Reasonable graphic). If there was less uncertainty than what currently exists, it would make sense for the NHC to issue TS Watches for portions of E FL at 11am. I'd wager that doesn't happen, and NHC punts that decision to 5pm, when hopefully there's much more clarity regarding the LLC reformation.

Maybe...12z guidance now all mostly offshore SFL all the strong winds with this all NE of llc.

Not the EURO.

Euro has a weak TS that’s why but if intensifies I suspect it will jump to the NE bandwagon this afternoon at 12z.

[NDG]

NHC is in a small pickle. Models overall shifted slightly West since 5am, but the NHC track is still slightly West of the TCVN. My guess is NHC makes very minimal, if any, adjustments to the track. Makes sense to wait until after there's a center reformation.

Maintaining the track would put SE FL about 36 hours away from the possibility of TS winds (going by their Earliest Reasonable graphic). If there was less uncertainty than what currently exists, it would make sense for the NHC to issue TS Watches for portions of E FL at 11am. I'd wager that doesn't happen, and NHC punts that decision to 5pm, when hopefully there's much more clarity regarding the LLC reformation.

Maybe...12z guidance now all mostly offshore SFL all the strong winds with this all NE of llc.

Not the EURO.

And the 12z NAM, not that I care much about that model lol.

[Weatherboy1]

Palm Beach post headline:

“Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/

I'm definitely getting a Hurricane David (1979) vibe from this one. Fortunately nowhere near the strength David was when it hit the island of Hispanola. But in terms of future track? If midday U.S. models (GFS etc) today continue the morning shift west (after the overnight shift east), I'm going to be very concerned for a grazing-of-East-Coast-FL scenario

Was David even that bad for Florida?

No, because Hispanola disrupted it from the strong hurricane it was previously. But still a solid Cat 1 that skirted east coast FL

[Blown Away]

NHC is in a small pickle. Models overall shifted slightly West since 5am, but the NHC track is still slightly West of the TCVN. My guess is NHC makes very minimal, if any, adjustments to the track. Makes sense to wait until after there's a center reformation.

Maintaining the track would put SE FL about 36 hours away from the possibility of TS winds (going by their Earliest Reasonable graphic). If there was less uncertainty than what currently exists, it would make sense for the NHC to issue TS Watches for portions of E FL at 11am. I'd wager that doesn't happen, and NHC punts that decision to 5pm, when hopefully there's much more clarity regarding the LLC reformation.

Really a good point. I think that the combination of slower forward motion along with the anticipated disruption of the overall circulation, that the timing for approach to S. Florida might be delayed by at least a few hours. I suppose I could see T.S. Watches raised at noon for the Florida Keys but i'd guess that NHC will wait until 5:00pm to do the same for mainland S. Florida. This would also buy a bit of added time to take into account 12Z EURO model trend as well. Right now, i'd guess there will be practically no change to overall track at the upcoming advisory.

12z TVCN shifted @20 miles W near SFL, it was over Grand Bahama at 06z, and with Euro landfall in @Homestead I bet they nudge the cone W and probably a landfall point near Stuart/Ft.Pierce and I think as a Cat 1.

[NDG]

Maybe...12z guidance now all mostly offshore SFL all the strong winds with this all NE of llc.

Not the EURO.

Euro has a weak TS that’s why but if intensifies I suspect it will jump to the NE bandwagon this afternoon at 12z.

It has nothing to do with it showing being weak, it forecasts a stronger ridge to the north of it, 06z GFS trended towards it.

[msbee]

Good morning
Has anyone heard from cycloneye?

morning! no... but fwiw, here in PR we've had tons of rain, areas of flooding, 50-60mph gusts, a few mudslides, and about 300k peeps without power

hope everyone will be safe there

[WeatherEmperor]

The 11am advisory just came out and says Watches could be required for Florida later today


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[BobHarlem]

11AM position 18.1N 68.9W, still offshore South of La Romana, DR.

[Evil Jeremy]

Discussion highlights:

"Radar imagery from Puerto Rico has shown a mid-level circulation that moved over the
Mona passage and is now along the northern coast of Hispaniola.
Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft, however, continue to place the center near
the southeastern coast of Hispaniola. It is possible that a new
center will re-form along the northern coast of Hispaniola"

"As the trough slides
eastward over the United States, this should steer Isaias northward
and northeastward early next week. Although the bulk of the track
guidance agrees on this overall scenario, the confidence in the
track forecast remains lower than usual due to the expected land
interaction and possible center reformation in the short term."

"The global models and the SHIPS guidance suggest that
Isaias will encounter an area of moderate southwesterly shear over
the weekend, and the NHC intensity forecast is again leveled off at
that time. There are models that continue to suggest Isaias could
become a hurricane when it is near the U.S., but given the continued
uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the intensity
consensus."

"Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida
later today."

[SFLcane]

Hurricane watches for SFL!

[GCANE]

Outflow improving fast.
Radial fingers in all directions.

[ObsessedMiami]

Hurricane watches for SFL!

“ Well, that escalated quickly,”

[GCANE]

49 knot surface winds on the last drop just off the tip of DR

[Aric Dunn]

I have my popcorn ready and later my glass of wine.. while I watch the system morph while over land..

always entertaining.

[DestinHurricane]

Hurricane watches for SFL!

Well, that escalated quickly

I said hurricane watches this morning. Not surprising at all because they have it at 70 mph nearing the FL coast.

[NDG]

Too bad they didn't make it further west towards the MLC along the northern coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hurricane watches for SFL!

Well, that escalated quickly

I said hurricane watches this morning. Not surprising at all because they have it at 70 mph nearing the FL coast.

Didn't you spend yesterday talking about how Florida could stop paying attention to this and enjoy a sunny weekend?