ATL: LAURA - Models

[robbielyn]

I know I’m in the minority, but this thing is going to have a hard time making it out alive if it tracks over the heart of the DR and Cuba like it appears it may do. It’s got a tough battle ahead.

Erika in 2015 is a good analog for that scenario.

Still not feeling safe in Key West. If the HWRF verifies, it will be too late for an evacuation. The HWRF and the 'John Hope rule' suggest it will skirt just north of Hispaniola. Worst case scenario for me.

Well be packed and ready to go and jump in car the moment you see the relocation and beat the traffic.You go before the news outlets alert the public.

[NDG]

06z Euro also shows the LLC dancing around north of PR, riding the northern coast in and out of Hispaniola and Cuba, thus a stronger run than previous run.

[NDG]

06z Euro also shows the LLC dancing around north of PR, riding the northern coast in and out of Hispaniola and Cuba, thus a stronger run than previous run.

[cp79]

06z Euro also shows the LLC dancing around north of PR, riding the northern coast in and out of Hispaniola and Cuba, thus a stronger run than previous run.

https://i.imgur.com/oKXBFiz.jpg

If it stays north this thing can get strong with HP over it in Gulf. Might be some swelling in Gulf from Marco but still good conditions await.

[Jr0d]

Well be packed and ready to go and jump in car the moment you see the relocation and beat the traffic.You go before the news outlets alert the public.

We are not evacuating. My only concern is surge. If it looks bad, I have a safe place to go.

My generator is already gassed up, non-perishables are well stocked. Been charging my rechargeables, have 2 VHF radios....about as prepared as I can be just have to pick up around the house and bring stuff in.

The rest of the island is already writing the storm off. Until the storm passes Hispaniola, I think that is foolish.

With how well the HWRF was performed, we should be concerned. The latest EURO is also a bit concerning also, not the intensity so much but the trend further north and a deepening system when she's at our longitude.

I would say we have about an 75% chance of minimal tropical storm conditions or less, about 20% chance of strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane conditions and less than 5% chance of cat 2 or worse conditions.

[Ken711]

[blp]

It looks to me like the MLC is becoming the dominant force on radar. Very nice organization going on right now.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html

[Michele B]

It looks to me like the MLC is becoming the dominant force on radar. Very nice organization going on right now.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html

Is that the circ south of PR?

What does that mean for future track? If it misses DR and mountains will nhc change the track and/or intensity?

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=60

[jhpigott]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020082212&fh=60

Given what Marco is currently doing and how differently the NAM (and other models) initialize Marco I would hazard to guess we could be in for some model and track shifts for both Marco and Laura this afternoon and evening??

[blp]

It looks to me like the MLC is becoming the dominant force on radar. Very nice organization going on right now.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html

Is that the circ south of PR?

What does that mean for future track? If it misses DR and mountains will nhc change the track and/or intensity?

Not yet, the circ is north still but that one is still mid level but looking like its trying to work to the surface. We will see who wins out. The HWRF shows the north circ eventually pulling most of the southern MLC north and eventually consolidating everything north of DR with the help of the land friction to tighten it up. You almost need the MLC to die off to a degree over DR to allow the energy to refocus on the northern circ.

[supercane4867]

12z ICON has Marco making landfall east of Laura

[PTPatrick]

12z ICON has Marco making landfall east of Laura

I’m not buying it. Not a met...but have trouble seeing how Laura comes in much west of Marco. Especially if Marco winds up stronger than forecast. Would think he would leave some sort of weakness...but could See them coming in near same area. Unless Laura just stayed way south.

I’m not super familiar witH icon and haven’t followed it much. Is it generally considered reasonable? I always kinda lumped it with jma as just a piece of information but don’t know enough about it.

[eastcoastFL]

Edit: Wrong thread please delete

[eastcoastFL]

12z ICON has Marco making landfall east of Laura

Keeps them both weak too which doesn’t make sense, well weaker than nhc

[TheDreamTraveler]

12z ICON has Marco making landfall east of Laura

I’m not buying it. Not a met...but have trouble seeing how Laura comes in much west of Marco. Especially if Marco winds up stronger than forecast. Would think he would leave some sort of weakness...but could See them coming in near same area.

12z gfs also shows the same thing as well. I can definitely see it happen. Most weren't expecting for Marco to get this strong and a strong storm would allow it to move more north so it landfalling farther east than Laura does as Laura rides west underneath Marco makes sense imo

[shiny-pebble]

Its kinda strange that HWRF is still confident that this will pass north of the islands.... It doesn't really look like now that we're seeing a northward center reformation.

Edit: Oops I'm looking at an earlier run 12z hasnt ran yet disregard this for now

[eastcoastFL]

Does 12z gfs para drop Laura all together?

[eastcoastFL]

12z gfs running

[eastcoastFL]

24hrs on northern coast of DR