ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cfisher]

[aspen]

Convection is definitely attempting to wrap around the CoC instead of being one giant uniform blob.

[northjaxpro]

The AF planes are now taking off from Ellington Field, near Houston, as a backup for Keesler AFB.

Thanks Crazy 83. I was wondering what their back-up would be plan as Keesler AFB is in the landfall strike zone and I am sure their preparing thrreand probably evacations are ongoing there as well.

[tiger_deF]

Hard to believe that for the past few days she's been this tiny little storm, and now she is one of the largest of the season

[xironman]

Where is a good radar site. First time poster. Sorry if this is the wrong place on the board to ask.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html

[Odin]

thanks

[aspen]

[northjaxpro]

The latest EURO 12Zrun is just frightening for Mobile,.AL and Pensacola. Possible storm surge up to 6 feet in Mobile Bay at time of landfall, which may not occur until during Wednesday with EURO showing a stall offthe MS/AL Coast possible on tomorrow which is going to.cause torrential rainfall across the Northern Gulf Coast.

[HeeBGBz]

The wind is picking up in Biloxi. No rain yet.

Looking at Sally, it seems like there's no easing into this storm. Looks like goes 0 to 60 as soon as you encounter it.

[3090]

https://i.imgur.com/FOatXHu.jpg

Developing that hammer look....

[FireRat]

The wind is picking up in Biloxi. No rain yet.

Looking at Sally, it seems like there's no easing into this storm. Looks like goes 0 to 60 as soon as you encounter it.

I guess that's why some call her Mustang Sally!

[bella_may]

Looks like convection has stopped temporarily. I still expect it to fire tonight though

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://i.imgur.com/FOatXHu.jpg

Looks pissed.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Starting to get the fist of fury look. I have a feeling it is going to be an interesting night and that is bad news.

[Aric Dunn]

we are entering the pulse down phase.. the eye is starting to show up on visible now..

[Nimbus]

Both IR and NEXRAD data indicate that outflow continues to expand westward and a small inner core appears to be forming. Given the decrease in VWS, the inner core looks to consolidate, expand, and deepen rapidly in three to six hours. The CDO itself is clearly growing in size and shows less of a demarcation between intense convection and cirrus, indicating that VWS is steadily decreasing. Once the inner core is fully ensconced, another round of rapid deepening is likely to occur. Overall, these trends collectively suggest that a major hurricane is becoming increasingly likely within the next twelve to eighteen hours. At this point, I would suggest a peak of 120–30 knots just south of the MS/AL border, followed by landfall shortly thereafter. This could be a worst-case scenario for Mobile Bay in terms of extreme, prolonged wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

That’s what I am afraid of. Confident moms home On the bayou (I joke she is the farthest southeast in the state of Mississippi, probably not quite, but close?) will hold up to wind, but George’s put 5 Ft surge under it (it’s on pilings) and Katrina put a foot in it. if the cat 2/3 parked offshore piling water into the bayou comes to pass for 48 hrs that will be tough on her house to be sitting in water that long and getting battered. She is protected from wave action by the pines and wetlands tho.

There is going to be fresh water flooding along with the surge in most of those areas. The SLOSH model works a little differently for slow moving storms since theoretically you don't have as much ramping from the initial approach but may have more cumulative effect if the water is trapped such as the case would be with a big influx of surge near Irish Bayou and the storm parked near the delta.

Don't be afraid to evacuate no one is going to call you chicken with all the uncertainty.

[xironman]

The wind is picking up in Biloxi. No rain yet.

Looking at Sally, it seems like there's no easing into this storm. Looks like goes 0 to 60 as soon as you encounter it.

Has people in Biloxi completed their preps, looks like it is going to be a tough time.

[3090]

The latest EURO 12Zrun is just frightening for Mobile,.AL and Pensacola. Possible storm surge up to 6 feet in Mobile Bay at time of landfall, which may not occur until during Wednesday with EURO showing a stall offthe MS/AL Coast possible on tomorrow which is going to.cause torrential rainfall across the Northern Gulf Coast.

Are models really all that useful at this point? Just curious. To me it is just now watching.

[cfisher]

New hot-tower in the NE quadrant of the inner core

[HurryKane]

The wind is picking up in Biloxi. No rain yet.

Looking at Sally, it seems like there's no easing into this storm. Looks like goes 0 to 60 as soon as you encounter it.

Has people in Biloxi completed their preps, looks like it is going to be a tough time.

I suspect not as many as one would hope. Like Katrina, Sally snuck up over the weekend for people who don't F5 Storm2K like it's their job