ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Red eye]

The eye was clearing, but it started to get cloudy again. On IR, it was also getting better defined but now it’s getting more ragged.

I like the way you think. This thing needs to a fast and sudden death!

[MOGSY31]

Correction, just seen the update, we may be on the east side of it now

Yeah- the new forecast track is inching steadily closer to the Laura impacted areas to your west. That would just be downright cruel. Here’s hoping wherever it goes the intensity forecast is a big bust on the high side and it pulls a Lily or weaker by the time it hits.

Lily did weaken a lot but went right through Crowley with lots of power lines and trees down, we were without power for two week, no other storm has created the same havoc personally since Lily, not even Laura

[supercane4867]

FL winds are reaching CAT3 territory. Surface winds still catching up.

[Jr0d]

Recon just found 110kt Flight level winds and a fairly large area of 100kt+ Flight level winds. This may enough for the NHC to upgrade to a major at the next advisory.

[TallahasseeMan]

Dropsonde found a pressure of 967mb with 13kt wind. So Delta is continuing to depend this afternoon.


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[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1314226085576335361

[Blinhart]

With that eye clearing out, I don't like that. I hope the FL winds don't make their way down to the surface, because this become a very major system, more than the NHC has been predicting for the past 12 hours, no matter what the Surge will be real bad.

[northjaxpro]

With that eye clearing out, I don't like that. I hope the FL winds don't make their way down to the surface, because this become a very major system, more than the NHC has been predicting for the past 12 hours, no matter what the Surge will be real bad.

Yes, very worried about the storm surge. It could be quite severe along the Louisiana coast.

[tiger_deF]

If Delta can at all replicate what it is doing on the West to it's eastern flank, I see cat 4 as easily achievable.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking better and better on satellite. I'm anticipating a run up to cat 4 by tonight before the TC weakens on approach to land.

[ColdMiser123]

110 kt FL wind at 700 mb is the same speed measured with Sally just before landfall, interested to see what the NHC decides at 2 pm for the intensity. That supports 100 kt at the surface, but the peak SFMR found so far has been 90 kt.

Most likely around 12-18 hours of intensification still left.

[MGC]

The westward trend in NHC forecast track is ominous as Delta is very likely to impact the same areas that Laura devastated just weeks ago. Prayers to all in the path of Delta.

Anyone know what the record for most TC landfalls in one state during a season is? Louisiana is getting up there.......MGC

[aspen]

If Delta can at all replicate what it is doing on the West to it's eastern flank, I see cat 4 as easily achievable.

Getting more of that <-75C convection over to the east side should be enough to close of the SE eyewall, which is still open according to recon. The longer it remains open, the less likely Delta will be able to deepen quicker, and the weaker it’ll be at landfall (although unfortunately not by much, but it’s something).

[northjaxpro]

If Delta can at all replicate what it is doing on the West to it's eastern flank, I see cat 4 as easily achievable.

It is a possibility unfortunately. Delta could ramp up quickly for the next 18 hours at least before gradually weakening on approach late tomorrow afternoon to the Louisiana coast.

[aspen]

110 kt FL wind at 700 mb is the same speed measured with Sally just before landfall, interested to see what the NHC decides at 2 pm for the intensity. That supports 100 kt at the surface, but the peak SFMR found so far has been 90 kt.

Most likely around 12-18 hours of intensification still left.

Perhaps they’ll go with a compromise between 100 kt FL-to-surface conversion and 90 kt SFMR, and set it at 95 kt for 2pm or 5pm.

[Blinhart]

110 kt FL wind at 700 mb is the same speed measured with Sally just before landfall, interested to see what the NHC decides at 2 pm for the intensity. That supports 100 kt at the surface, but the peak SFMR found so far has been 90 kt.

Most likely around 12-18 hours of intensification still left.

Perhaps they’ll go with a compromise between 100 kt FL-to-surface conversion and 90 kt SFMR, and set it at 95 kt for 2pm or 5pm.

I think they will go with at least 95, but most likely 100 since it is starting to get that look, and they want people to take this serious.

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS run showing that this may not weaken as much as previously forecast on approach.

A big surge now in Enthalpy Flux and no Dry-Air entrainment into the core.

[Craters]

This is a significant hurricane. 100mph winds is nothing to take lightly.

Again my concern is because this is 'only' a cat 2, aome may not take it as serious as Laura, especially surge wise. Given the large windfield the surge could potentially be as high if not higher than Laura in a lot of areas and this may catch people off guard.

Very, very good points, Jr0d. I'd bet that anyone who went through the "non-major" Hurricane Ike would agree with you whole-heartedly while trying to shake off bursts of PTSD.

[Hurricane Mike]

Hurricane Delta is much better stacked than when in the Caribbean. Looks quite menacing, in my opinion.

[stormlover2013]

Latest COAMPS run showing that this may not weaken as much as previously forecast on approach.

A big surge now in Enthalpy Flux and no Dry-Air entrainment into the core.

https://i.imgur.com/5fzz9cX.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Paz4Tjr.gif

What is the coamps?