ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Raebie]

Welp, that was fun.

[EquusStorm]

Given little sign of an outer eyewall and temps still rising, probably has some intensification to go.

[AutoPenalti]

So I went to workout for what??

[shah83]

HWRF is pleased with itself. A little too far north, but hits the pressure!

[storminabox]

Quite surprising considering it’s presentation. Goes to show that we still have lots to learn.

[CrazyC83]

Again proves that to have a top-tier storm, an explicitly good eye temp is more important than any ridiculously cold cloud tops

EXACTLY. Was just going to post this. Eye temp is everything. That orange eye didn't materialize fortunately.

YET. There's still time for it to get warmer.

[supercane4867]

If dropsonde supports sub-930mb pressure it's obviously most likely a 140kt CAT5

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A 925mb storm isn't going to be a Cat 4.

This is a Cat 5, but a lower end one. This is good news compared to the dreadful Haiyan-esque impact we were expecting based on the RAW T#.

[emeraldislenc]

Please let us not forget the destruction of this storm. It bothers me that some are treating this like a sporting event. This is a very serious situation!

[ClarCari]

Did Patricia or Wilma’s first recon pass even tell us how intense the storm really was??
With a pinhole eye, one pass does not make this storm.

[tiger_deF]

Now I hope Eta warms up the eye and does reach sub-900 just to prove everyone wrong (and fall apart like Patricia right after of course)

[ElectricStorm]

I kinda feel like NHC is going with 135kts this advisory...

[Kingarabian]

Will the real Patricia please stand up.

Seriously though, this is good news. Hopefully it remains weak.

[gfsperpendicular]

Man this just goes to show Dvorak has a long way to go in upper-end systems, sometimes too low, sometimes too high

[Kazmit]

Will the real Patricia please stand up.

Seriously though, this is good news. Hopefully it remains weak.

"Weak"

[CyclonicFury]

I guess Eta is proof that Dvorak doesn't underestimate every single storm.

[aspen]

Given little sign of an outer eyewall and temps still rising, probably has some intensification to go.

It could still make a run for 900 mbar with that presentation. Between the 1230z and 0216z passes, Eta has seen a deepening rate of 3.5 mb/hr, which is averaged out over nearly 2 hours. Perhaps it had a slow-down earlier in the afternoon and has only recently begun bombing out again. Or the plane missed peak intensity by a bit. We’ll know for certain next pass.

[GeneratorPower]

The pass missed the eye.

[RL3AO]

Man this just goes to show Dvorak has a long way to go in upper-end systems, sometimes too low, sometimes too high

To be fair, this has been known for a good 30 or 40 years. Dvorak is the 2nd best tool we have at measuring high end storms. But it can still be way off.

[Argcane]