ATL: LAURA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

36hrs Laura strengthening N. Of Cuba

[eastcoastFL]

60hrs Laura intact entering the gulf

[Cat5James]

12Z GFS showing a weaker ridge and a has Laura a bit north of the last run

[Kazmit]

Starting to strengthen just as Marco leaves the picture.

[eastcoastFL]

Starting to strengthen just as Marco leaves the picture.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200822/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-11.png

That’s scary that it brings Marco in just east of New Orleans with Laura stronger following behind

[caneman]

Man looks like the rain will just keep coming at us on the west coast of Florida with that model run

[eastcoastFL]

Man looks like the rain will just keep coming at us on the west coast of Florida with that model run

Almost no break from tomorrow night through at least Wednesday

[cp79]

If I lived anywhere up to around Tampa Bay I’d keep my eye close in this because if the eye shifts a little more north and it just jogs a little to the right when starting to make that more NW turn, while it make not make direct landfall with the west coast, it’s going to really increase the bad weather there. Very similar to Dennis where you just need to watch and see to make sure it doesn’t take any wobbles to the right. Could get closer than you think. Eventually, though, I think it moves away and up towards the Mobile to NO area.

[bella_may]

Looks like the models are shifting East again?

[cp79]

Looks like the models are shifting East again?

If they do, then the HWRF will score big points.

Discrepancy seems to be whether it moves NNW, NW or WNW when it gets to eastern Gulf.

[Kazmit]

[Ivanhater]

Looks like Marco's big swing east broke the ridge down a little while longer allowing a more northerly movement for Laura

[HurricaneFrances04]

[Kazmit]

Landfall.

[Ivanhater]

12z gfs landfall east central Louisiana. What a major swing east for both storms today

[ronjon]

With the 12z GFS now coming loser to the HWRF track, I think anyone from the lower to middle keys needs to make a plan to go. The wild card in addition to the eventual track is the strength. It may still just be a tropical storm or minimal cane at that point or worse case could really deepen on its approach to key west. Hopefully in the next 24-36 hrs we'll have a much better idea on strength and track.

[FLpanhandle91]

I feel as though as long as Marco keeps east of the forecast points, that will leave an opening for Laura to swing east as well. Also, it is crazy how fast the ridge builds back after Marco's landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

This gfs run just devastates Louisiana with a cat 1 followed by a cat 2/3? In consecutive days. I hope this changes.

[supercane4867]

Since the tracks of both storms overlap, if Marco gets stronger than expected its upwelling may help to weaken Laura prior to landfall.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the models are shifting East again?

If they do, then the HWRF will score big points.

Discrepancy seems to be whether it moves NNW, NW or WNW when it gets to eastern Gulf.

This is where the Binary interaction between Marco and Laura will really come into the forefront potentially in the next couple of days. This could really throw some curve balls at the models and us lay people analysts that is for sure.. Very very intriguing for the medium term forecasts.