ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MidnightRain]

The latest EURO 12Zrun is just frightening for Mobile,.AL and Pensacola. Possible storm surge up to 6 feet in Mobile Bay at time of landfall, which may not occur until during Wednesday with EURO showing a stall offthe MS/AL Coast possible on tomorrow which is going to.cause torrential rainfall across the Northern Gulf Coast.

Are models really all that useful at this point? Just curious. To me it is just now watching.

Absolutely. We’re still 24-36 hours from landfall, there’s still plenty of time for the models to show us something that might change.

[Keldeo1997]

Pinhole?

[tomatkins]

The latest EURO 12Zrun is just frightening for Mobile,.AL and Pensacola. Possible storm surge up to 6 feet in Mobile Bay at time of landfall, which may not occur until during Wednesday with EURO showing a stall offthe MS/AL Coast possible on tomorrow which is going to.cause torrential rainfall across the Northern Gulf Coast.

Are models really all that useful at this point? Just curious. To me it is just now watching.

Not really. The key is in the details, and the details are too unpredictable for the models to capture with enough confidence to make them useful (like HWRF might nail the landfall location and windspeed in the 18z run, but if the Euro, GFS and others are somewhat different then you cant confidently say which is right until its all over). I would say - trust the NHC, they usually do a better job of getting the details right than the models this close in.

[cfisher]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/755148433760845834/unknown.png

Pinehole?

Nutty

[Stormgodess]

Hard to believe that for the past few days she's been this tiny little storm, and now she is one of the largest of the season

I love all that meteorologist do, and appreciate it so much. But I can never let myself fully trust forecast totally after Katrina. I seriously felt like I was the only one awake that night when she was out in the gulf and BLEW UP IN TO A MONSTER!!! I kept praying and wondering where all the alerts were on tv, and on what little bit of internet there was. There wasnt any FB and Twitter. I never felt so alone in my life. Felt like an idiot calling everyone I knew in the middle of the night, because there just wasnt serious warnings prior, that she would get so strong.

[xironman]

Looks stalled on the Mobile radar.

[northjaxpro]

The latest EURO 12Zrun is just frightening for Mobile,.AL and Pensacola. Possible storm surge up to 6 feet in Mobile Bay at time of landfall, which may not occur until during Wednesday with EURO showing a stall offthe MS/AL Coast possible on tomorrow which is going to.cause torrential rainfall across the Northern Gulf Coast.

Are models really all that useful at this point? Just curious. To me it is just now watching.

In this situation very near term, it is always helpful to see what the the models are indicating with a tropical cyclone threatening just off shore. It is with me as an analyst. I would never refer to them as not being helpful at this particular juncture.

[Ian2401]

Looks stalled on the Mobile radar.

prob getting ready to turn northward now

[DestinHurricane]

Looks stalled on the Mobile radar.

prob getting ready to turn northward now

Is it? That would be very much ahead of schedule.

[supercane4867]

The tiny eyewall feature on radar will likely collapse itself and cause the feeding band to takeover resulting in the formation of a larger stable eye.

[GCANE]

Going to start swallowing some big chunks of LL moisture

[p1nheadlarry]

Both IR and NEXRAD data indicate that outflow continues to expand westward and a small inner core appears to be forming. Given the decrease in VWS, the inner core looks to consolidate, expand, and deepen rapidly in three to six hours. The CDO itself is clearly growing in size and shows less of a demarcation between intense convection and cirrus, indicating that VWS is steadily decreasing. Once the inner core is fully ensconced, another round of rapid deepening is likely to occur. Overall, these trends collectively suggest that a major hurricane is becoming increasingly likely within the next twelve to eighteen hours. At this point, I would suggest a peak of 120–30 knots just south of the MS/AL border, followed by landfall shortly thereafter. This could be a worst-case scenario for Mobile Bay in terms of extreme, prolonged wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

That’s what I am afraid of. Confident moms home On the bayou (I joke she is the farthest southeast in the state of Mississippi, probably not quite, but close?) will hold up to wind, but George’s put 5 Ft surge under it (it’s on pilings) and Katrina put a foot in it. if the cat 2/3 parked offshore piling water into the bayou comes to pass for 48 hrs that will be tough on her house to be sitting in water that long and getting battered. She is protected from wave action by the pines and wetlands tho.

There is going to be fresh water flooding along with the surge in most of those areas. The SLOSH model works a little differently for slow moving storms since theoretically you don't have as much ramping from the initial approach but may have more cumulative effect if the water is trapped such as the case would be with a big influx of surge near Irish Bayou and the storm parked near the delta.

Don't be afraid to evacuate no one is going to call you chicken with all the uncertainty.

I can only speak for NW FL, but the Navarre area, which has grown since the last major strikes (15 years now), is very susceptible to FW flooding

[FLpanhandle91]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/755148433760845834/unknown.png

Pinhole?

This inner eyewall is rotating around larger center as evidenced by the eyewall feature to its north. As Aric pointed out earlier, this inner eye will now rotate around back east and north.

[Stormcenter]

So far it is following NHC track and headed for the
mouth of the MS. Some may believe/see otherwise but
that’s my two cents.

[Ian2401]

Looks stalled on the Mobile radar.

prob getting ready to turn northward now

Is it? That would be very much ahead of schedule.

i dont mean its gonna shoot 90 degrees up now i just think it might be starting to gradually add more northerly components and we will see that soon.

either way its wobble watching, and we all know you can end up with gray hair from too much of that lol

[p1nheadlarry]

Going to start swallowing some big chunks of LL moisture

Not the friendliest coloring, but I presume those contours are CAPE?

[Ian2401]

whats with the big dry slot on radar?

[Dean4Storms]

I'm guessing the hazy look to the visible satellite presentation is from the convective bomb that went off earlier throwing moisture real high into the Ridge aloft??

[DestinHurricane]

So far it is following NHC track and headed for the
mouth of the MS. Some may believe/see otherwise but
that’s my two cents.

It's stalling earlier than expected.

[Stormgodess]

Looks stalled on the Mobile radar.

prob getting ready to turn northward now

How can you tell? That turn is everything to me right now. (Sorry for those who will get hit), but that turn is what I have to see before I can breathe again.