ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Owasso]

134kt FL in the Southern Quadrant
109kt SFMR.

[zal0phus]

The pass missed the eye.

With as tight as a gradient as Eta has that could make a big difference. I wonder if they'll be able to make it on the next pass.

[Nimbus]

If we assume a pressure around 924 mb (for missing the true center), that would suggest winds of about 140 kt.

Flying out of an eyewall that is racing West at 150 knots and into one that is moving East at 140 knots..
They probably got the center with that light blue flag.

[Sanibel]

I’m guessing inhibited by land in west quadrant and November...

[p1nheadlarry]

Will the real Patricia please stand up.

Seriously though, this is good news. Hopefully it remains weak.

It’s just going to be moving so slow...it won’t matter. This will suck for Nicaragua/Honduras.

[supercane4867]

WV presentation still improving so nothing is off the table yet. It may very well make landfall near peak intensity.

[Beef Stew]

There remains the possibility that the pass may have slightly missed the center due to turbulence. In an intense and small system with such a steep gradient, it can happen. We need more passes to tell the full story. And at the end of the day, we are still more likely than not looking at a Category 5.

[p1nheadlarry]

I’m guessing inhibited by land in west quadrant and November...

That little nook actually can help the storm. Keeps the tangential component of the wind field largely parallel to isobars and allows for the secondary circulation to stay intact.

[CrazyC83]

It's also been going well south of forecast. Right now at about 14.1N 82.6W.

[BYG Jacob]

Gonna get munching on the crow I got served.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m guessing inhibited by land in west quadrant and November...

I highly doubt it. Signs of dry air entrainment would be prominent. Whatever the reason, these dynamics are clearly too complex for me to understand...

[supercane4867]

Will the real Patricia please stand up.

Seriously though, this is good news. Hopefully it remains weak.

"Weak"

We have finally come to the point that a 140kt storm is considered a weak system.

[Fancy1001]

Will the real Patricia please stand up.

Seriously though, this is good news. Hopefully it remains weak.

"Weak"

We have finally come to the point that a 140kt storm is considered a weak system.

No, It's only weak compared to what we thought it was. We let our imaginations run wild.

[Cunxi Huang]

Again don't relies merely on raw T#. It has its own reason that CI, FT, and adjT exist.
That being said, Eta is still strengthening.

[Highteeld]

When you zoom in on satellite, it all begins to make sense. Hurricane Rick has made a comeback.

[supercane4867]

I’m guessing inhibited by land in west quadrant and November...

I highly doubt it. Signs of dry air entrainment would be prominent. Whatever the reason, these dynamics are clearly too complex for me to understand...

Upper troposphere temperature tends to be cooler in November so that it's easier to produce cold convection during this time of the year.

[aspen]

The big question is: what will the NHC do? Will they pull the Cat 5 trigger or not? The highest winds have yet to be sampled and the pressure is low enough for a Cat 5, but the next pass won’t be until after the 10pm advisory comes out.

[shah83]

It's also been going well south of forecast. Right now at about 14.1N 82.6W.

also very slightly east of gfs/hwrf modeling.

[Do_For_Love]

We overshot that by a bit, lol. 920s mbar and potentially still strengthening is a beast regardless though, I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

[jackdets]

If you look at the SFMR precip max data... Looks like a second eyewall could be developing??
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status ... 6886487040