ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AxaltaRacing24]

The big question is: what will the NHC do? Will they pull the Cat 5 trigger or not? The highest winds have yet to be sampled and the pressure is low enough for a Cat 5, but the next pass won’t be until after the 10pm advisory comes out.

it's likely a cat 5. if not, 155mph.

[Kingarabian]

Will the real Patricia please stand up.

Seriously though, this is good news. Hopefully it remains weak.

"Weak"

We have finally come to the point that a 140kt storm is considered a weak system.

I was hoping guys know what I mean. Weak as in a non Wilma/Patricia/Haiyan type storm. I shoulda used a better term. This remains a catastrophic storm by any means and will be a massive flooding and wind event. Opens the door for an ERC to come in and hopefully drop the winds further.

[supercane4867]

The big question is: what will the NHC do? Will they pull the Cat 5 trigger or not? The highest winds have yet to be sampled and the pressure is low enough for a Cat 5, but the next pass won’t be until after the 10pm advisory comes out.

Likely depends on what dropsonde found. If recon indeed missed the dead center, pressure alone would justify an upgrade.

[ElectricStorm]

The big question is: what will the NHC do? Will they pull the Cat 5 trigger or not? The highest winds have yet to be sampled and the pressure is low enough for a Cat 5, but the next pass won’t be until after the 10pm advisory comes out.

I'm gonna say they go 135kts with the upgrade at the intermediate. They didn't upgrade Micheal operationally and it was at 919mb so pressure alone won't do it for them

[Kingarabian]

"Weak"

We have finally come to the point that a 140kt storm is considered a weak system.

No, It's only weak compared to what we thought it was. We let our imaginations run wild.

Agreed.

[CrazyC83]

The big question is: what will the NHC do? Will they pull the Cat 5 trigger or not? The highest winds have yet to be sampled and the pressure is low enough for a Cat 5, but the next pass won’t be until after the 10pm advisory comes out.

I'd go with 135 kt out of respect of the fact only a small area was sampled and the pressure tumble. But if the next pass finds more, we may be looking at a Special Advisory then.

[Kazmit]

The big question is: what will the NHC do? Will they pull the Cat 5 trigger or not? The highest winds have yet to be sampled and the pressure is low enough for a Cat 5, but the next pass won’t be until after the 10pm advisory comes out.

Knowing the NHC, no.

[ClarCari]

Throwing out EWRC has become just as frustrating as throwing out the word Annular. Not every nudge in the eye is a “sign” of EWRC.

[Hammy]

I’m guessing inhibited by land in west quadrant and November...

Given the small size and wobbles, I'm betting the west or NW quad is where the strongest winds are.

The big question is: what will the NHC do? Will they pull the Cat 5 trigger or not? The highest winds have yet to be sampled and the pressure is low enough for a Cat 5, but the next pass won’t be until after the 10pm advisory comes out.

I'd go with 135 kt out of respect of the fact only a small area was sampled and the pressure tumble. But if the next pass finds more, we may be looking at a Special Advisory then.

When would you estimate the SE-NW pass is?

[Kingarabian]

Again don't relies merely on raw T#. It has its own reason that CI, FT, and adjT exist.
That being said, Eta is still strengthening.

Great point.

[Kingarabian]

Throwing out EWRC has become just as frustrating as throwing out the word Annular. Not every nudge in the eye is a “sign” of EWRC.

It's frustrating but theyre a common thing in hurricanes. They're still a phenomenon that we know little about.

[NDG]

Recon should find stronger winds in its next pass.

[Highteeld]

Yay.

[skyline385]

Drop missed the eye

[Owasso]

Clearly missed the eye.

[NDG]

Dropsonde 928 mb

928mb (27.41 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 90° (from the E) 17 knots (20 mph)

[ClarCari]

Drop missed the eye with winds at 75kt and yet still measured 929mb!!

The actual pressure is likely very lower.

[CrazyC83]

The pressure of 926 mb (after the dropsonde adjustment) is the second lowest on record for a November storm, behind the 1932 hurricane (which was below 915 mb).

[CrazyC83]

Drop missed the eye with winds at 75kt and yet still measured 929mb!!

The actual pressure is likely very lower.

If that is accurate, the pressure is 922 mb.

[EquusStorm]

Very impressive dichotomy between appearance and actual measurements; looks far better than almost every other Atlantic hurricane and yet...