ATL: LAURA - Models

[SoupBone]

HMON for Laura

[Beef Stew]

That would pack a punch. Small(ish) C4 coming in like a bullet. While there's definitely Katrina vibes, I think the Last Island Storm of 1856 may be a more applicable analog given track, size, and intensity for this run.

[kevin]

Even with all that land interaction, 12z HMON still gets Laura to a 950 mbar hurricane before landfall at the Tex/Mex border.

[supercane4867]

HMON for Laura

https://i.imgur.com/rEUb3iY.png

The only reason HMON sends Laura into southern TX is that it weakens Marco rapidly in the northern Gulf thus allowing ridge to build up.

[Frank P]

Eerily similar to Katrina

Yeah but no where near the size! And hopefully it doesn’t go thru any ERCs during it journey across the GOM!

But if this comes to fruition it’s a really bad scenario for NOLA coming in at that angle, and most likely the winds will be stronger from this system than Katrina for SELA... IMO

[kevin]

12z HWRF landfall, 938 mbar @102 hours.

[SoupBone]

HMON for Laura

https://i.imgur.com/rEUb3iY.png

The only reason HMON sends Laura into southern TX is that it weakens Marco rapidly in the northern Gulf thus allowing ridge to build up.

It's still such a massive spread in these models. From Tex/Mex to the Florida Panhandle. Marco, as everyone has been saying for days now, will definitely be the key to Laura's track as well.

[CrazyC83]

Basically, the spread is from a Beulah repeat to a Betsy repeat. That's an enormous difference.

[tolakram]

HWRF 12Z run.

HWRF loves to keep intensifying storms near the end of it's run so I would not be overly concerned about strength at the moment, but something to look out for. IMO

[FixySLN]

We're in extreme southern Mississippi about 10 miles from Biloxi, 50 miles from Mobile, and we have NO idea what to do. I'm pulling out my hair.

[PTPatrick]

I’ve told my family in Mississippi to rush any outdoor stuff to completion tomorrow before Marco. They will stay put til Tuesday as I’m not too concerned about surge with Marco, at this point.

More concerned with Laura for sure. They will need to evacuate if it starts to look like a major coming in near the mouth of the ms. If today’s shift toward grand isle and west holds will feel better about them staying put. But they have a couple days to watch. If it comes any any further East they’ll have to get out. Lots to watch.

[Cat5James]

12Z Euro now has Laura as a strong tropical storm in the Florida Straits... big difference from last run

[SFLcane]

You can see HWRF correcting itself. 12z basically rides along Cuba coast.

[gatorcane]

12 Euro at 72 hours, definitely stronger. But how does it strengthen with all the land interaction especially between 24 and 48 hours? Seems unlikely. Conditions are favorable in the Gulf but I would be cautious looking at each of these runs until we see how Laura interacts with Hispaniola and Cuba which have some very tall mountains that have been known to shred cyclones apart. I imagine it is tough to model something like that:

[DestinHurricane]

You can see HWRF correcting itself. 12z basically rides along Cuba coast.

Probably will shift back east once it initializes the right center N of PR.

[bella_may]

Anddd with that I’ve seen enough. Time to run to Walmart

[blp]

That is a pretty big shift north. The keys need to watch out.

[gatorcane]

12 Euro at 72 hours, definitely stronger. But how does it strengthen with all the land interaction especially between 24 and 48 hours? Seems unlikely. Conditions are favorable in the Gulf but I would be cautious looking at each of these runs until we see how Laura interacts with Hispaniola and Cuba which have some very tall mountains that have been known to shred cyclones apart. I imagine it is tough to model something like that:

https://i.postimg.cc/28mLM0Ct/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-watl-4.png

Following on to this, some potentially good news in that the 96 hour Euro forecast weakens Laura on the approach to the northern Gulf. Goes from 993MB at 72 hours to 999MB at 96 hours. I say potential because we need to see if other models start picking up on whatever the Euro is seeing that causes the weakening:

[Ivanhater]

Another east shift on euro now bringing into New Orleans

[Nederlander]

Not a good trend for SE LA.. Double hit on Plaquemines in the 12z euro