ATL: LAURA - Models

[cp79]

Damn Euro has it trucking. Not sure this thing will ever get past cat 2 strength with it moving so fast.

[PTPatrick]

Euro at 96 looks dead on maybe a hair East of hwrf. Now have a spread from closer to vermilion bay with gfs and NOLA with The Euro. Feeling like some concensus building here. Obviously still lots of time and I still think anywhere in northern gulf is not out of the question but It starting to feel like these swings will be fewer and smaller. And we wait...

[eastcoastFL]

Euro similar track as HWRF but waaay faster and weaker

[PTPatrick]

Yep that tells me speed will be key. If it’s goes faster than seems like ms coast could be in more trouble...slower and you are looking closer to Morgan city,

[MississippiWx]

12 Euro at 72 hours, definitely stronger. But how does it strengthen with all the land interaction especially between 24 and 48 hours? Seems unlikely. Conditions are favorable in the Gulf but I would be cautious looking at each of these runs until we see how Laura interacts with Hispaniola and Cuba which have some very tall mountains that have been known to shred cyclones apart. I imagine it is tough to model something like that:

https://i.postimg.cc/28mLM0Ct/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-watl-4.png

Following on to this, some potentially good news in that the 96 hour Euro forecast weakens Laura on the approach to the northern Gulf. Goes from 993MB at 72 hours to 999MB at 96 hours. I say potential because we need to see if other models stars picking up on whatever the Euro is seeing that causes the weakening:

https://i.postimg.cc/X7z3dv1g/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-watl-5.png

You just said to be cautious looking at a 24-48 hour forecast and then highlight potential good news at 96 hours. The storm is inland at that point, thus a weaker look.

The conditions in the Gulf will be ripe. The biggest question is what structure does it have after island interaction.

[cheezyWXguy]

Euro similar track as HWRF but waaay faster and weaker

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020082212/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_5.png

If the core is not significantly disrupted by land I have a hard time seeing how this stays below hurricane strength. Conditions look ripe in the gulf, even if it does move that fast. Probably wouldn’t get to cat 4 though.

[eastcoastFL]

Yep that tells me speed will be key. If it’s goes faster than seems like ms coast could be in more trouble...slower and you are looking closer to Morgan city,

Why is it so fast though? No other models show that speed, I wonder if it has to do with Marco and the ridge building in behind it

[gatorcane]

Notice the GFS ensembles which keep Laura on the weak side. The Euro is landfalling at 999MB so not too far off. Just don’t even look at the HWRF beyond 3 days. I am still waiting on the CAT 5 it showed for me just a couple of days ago

[MississippiWx]

Euro similar track as HWRF but waaay faster and weaker

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020082212/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_5.png

The euro has it in almost the same spot as HWRF, just 3-6 hours earlier. Not a huge difference for a 4 day forecast.

[ronjon]

12z GFS ensembles now have a few members hugging the west coast of Fl. Be watching carefully next.few days. This is gonna be close with the strength and orientation of ridge the key to Laura's eventual track in the eastern GOM.

[bella_may]

The next 24 hours will be crucial. Anything from a low end cat 1 to a low end cat 4 is possible

[Ivanhater]

Notice the 12z euro brings it nne from Nola. A sign the ridge is weaker

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[PTPatrick]

Notice the GFS ensembles which keep Laura on the weak side. The Euro is landfalling at 999MB so not too far off. Just don’t even look at the HWRF beyond 3 days. I am still waiting on the CAT 5 it showed for me just a couple of days ago

https://i.postimg.cc/KYcdWSWY/13-L-gefs-12z.png

Glad you posted that. I was telling my brother I wasn’t as concerned about strength yet as the Hwrf is better at track. I do think conditions look favorable but that model loves to make a cat 5 out of anything. If it’s still showing a major this time tomorrow I will be more concerned.

[crimi481]

We can say models trending east?

[DestinHurricane]

We can say models trending east?

For sure. GFS and Euro have both shifted east. TVCN will go east.

[AtlanticWind]

Cant really use the Euro for intensity, just the fact that is now depicting a organised system approaching the
Gulf coast is cause for concern.

[blp]

Notice the GFS ensembles which keep Laura on the weak side. The Euro is landfalling at 999MB so not too far off. Just don’t even look at the HWRF beyond 3 days. I am still waiting on the CAT 5 it showed for me just a couple of days ago

https://i.postimg.cc/KYcdWSWY/13-L-gefs-12z.png

Gator you are almost trolling at this point. I have seen you on here for a while and have not seen this from you before until this season. I don't know what up? We all know the HWRF overdoes the intensity and nobody that has been here for a while takes it as gospel. It has done a decent job on the evolution of the track for this system. At least it showed something unlike the Euro and GFS.

My concern is we cannot just downplay this because the reliable models plow this over land. if it does follow the northerly path lots of places are in for some trouble and may get caught off guard.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

These recent runs not so comforting for us along Alabama coast either.

[cp79]

We can say models trending east?

Not significantly though. HWRF actually moved more West. But the consensus was the La/Tx coast and now it’s more around NO.

[stormlover2013]

All depends where the center reforms