ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Camerooski]

I bet we'll see some shifts to the east in the 0Z.

Why?

A few reasons.

1. The westward trend seems to have stopped per the 18z runs.
2. Heading NW looking like heading for N andros Island
3. Models trending SLOWER

1. The HWRF and GFS/GFS Para all trended west, not to mention the upper air data did not go into the Happy Hour suite -- also the EURO showed the same solution.
2. It's steadily moving WNW- just north of WNW and looks to move directly over the island.
3. Models are converging more and more on a track that mirrors the NHC or even west of it.

[HurricaneEnzo]

We have data from G-IV now which showed STRONGER RIDGING and a FLATTER TROUGH. So it will be interesting to see the 0z models.

As Aric pointed out, this data was already in models for 18Z. Resulted in no shifts west.

My understanding was some of it was in there, not all of it.

[Nuno]

Why?

A few reasons.

1. The westward trend seems to have stopped per the 18z runs.
2. Heading NW looking like heading for N andros Island
3. Models trending SLOWER

4. Going back at least 30+ years in these scenarios, these storms tend to make the turn north missing Florida at the last second.

While true, there are several examples of hurricanes coming from the SE that make landfall in Florida. History has zero impact on current conditions as they exist and influence present storms. Maybe it will turn off PBC and not landfall, but I am willing to bet Isaias comes closer than some.

[ronjon]

With so many models showing Isaias moving inland within 36 hours, why is the NHC consistently hugging the right side of guidance?

So many? The ECMWF has actually trended to the east the past few runs ...consensus is up the coast and I have lost track of the number of storm that were supposed to make landfall on the east coast of Florida only to stay 50 miles offshore...

No the ECM actually shifted inland quite a bit in its 12z run from its offshore 00z previous run. So much so that Rick Knabb (former director of NHC) now on TWC consistently showed that run to warn tonight the center might likely come inland in Florida. The 18z Euro shifted slightly east from the 12z run, but it still tracks inland. Meanwhile, the major models on the right side of the guidance at 12z such as the GFS, GFS para, and HWRF have all shifted West on their 18z runs. Add in the UKMET, CMC, ICON, and NAVGEM as other models that now track inland in Florida and I think that's shaping up to be a pretty strong consensus. Could Iasias still stay offshore? Sure but Weight of evidence suggests less likely at this point.

[caneseddy]

We have data from G-IV now which showed STRONGER RIDGING and a FLATTER TROUGH. So it will be interesting to see the 0z models.

As Aric pointed out, this data was already in models for 18Z. Resulted in no shifts west.

He said partial data should have made it in. The full set wont wont appear on the models until the 00z runs

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM shifts EAST through 18 hours.

[DestinHurricane]

With so many models showing Isaias moving inland within 36 hours, why is the NHC consistently hugging the right side of guidance?

So many? The ECMWF has actually trended to the east the past few runs ...consensus is up the coast and I have lost track of the number of storm that were supposed to make landfall on the east coast of Florida only to stay 50 miles offshore...

No the ECM actually shifted inland quite a bit in its 12z run from its offshore 00z previous run. So much so that Rick Knapp (former director of NHC) now on TWC consistently showed that run to warn tonight the center might likely come inland in Florida. The 18z Euro shifted slightly east from the 12z run, but it still tracks inland. Meanwhile, the major models on the right side of the guidance at 12z such as the GFS, GFS para, and HWRF have all shifted West on their 18z runs. Add in the UKMET, CMC, ICON, and NAVGEM as other models that now track inland in Florida and I think that's shaping up to be a pretty strong consensus. Could Iasias still stay offshore? Sure but Weight of evidence suggests less likely at this point.

Consensus is still a storm just offshore. Likely to follow the NAM and shift east at 0Z. Florida may just get some breeze and a few showers after all.

[artist]

We have data from G-IV now which showed STRONGER RIDGING and a FLATTER TROUGH. So it will be interesting to see the 0z models.

As Aric pointed out, this data was already in models for 18Z. Resulted in no shifts west.

My understanding was some of it was in there, not all of it.

Yes, that is what he said, some of it. Thank you.

[SFLcane]

00Z NAM shifts EAST through 18 hours.

Na about the same.

[floridasun78]

00Z NAM shifts EAST through 18 hours.

NAM
not model that nhc use that much

[AutoPenalti]

00Z NAM shifts EAST through 18 hours.

Na about the same.

Nope he’s right, NAM did shift further east. However that ridge is a lot stronger.

[NDG]

Why?

A few reasons.

1. The westward trend seems to have stopped per the 18z runs.
2. Heading NW looking like heading for N andros Island
3. Models trending SLOWER

4. Going back at least 30+ years in these scenarios, these storms tend to make the turn north missing Florida at the last second.

Other than Matthew, which other storms are you talking about, other than the ones that turn 100 miles or so meast of FL and that at some point the models show it not making landfall in FL at 3 days or more.
Last year they did a very good job with Dorian of not making landfall in FL once we got within 3 days, with Isaias are now well within of 36-48 hrs of potentially making landfall.

[artist]

So many? The ECMWF has actually trended to the east the past few runs ...consensus is up the coast and I have lost track of the number of storm that were supposed to make landfall on the east coast of Florida only to stay 50 miles offshore...

No the ECM actually shifted inland quite a bit in its 12z run from its offshore 00z previous run. So much so that Rick Knapp (former director of NHC) now on TWC consistently showed that run to warn tonight the center might likely come inland in Florida. The 18z Euro shifted slightly east from the 12z run, but it still tracks inland. Meanwhile, the major models on the right side of the guidance at 12z such as the GFS, GFS para, and HWRF have all shifted West on their 18z runs. Add in the UKMET, CMC, ICON, and NAVGEM as other models that now track inland in Florida and I think that's shaping up to be a pretty strong consensus. Could Iasias still stay offshore? Sure but Weight of evidence suggests less likely at this point.

Consensus is still a storm just offshore. Likely to follow the NAM and shift east at 0Z. Florida may just get some breeze and a few showers after all.

Destin, people are here for serious discussion as they have to make plans for their safety. Randomly throwing out cliches without a basis you actually understand, is not helpful to people. I do feel you would like to learn. If you have questions, ask. Someone with experience will be more than happy to help you understand the why’s. That is what is great about this place. The pro’s and great seasoned amateurs are usually willing to help anyone learn the why’s and wherefore’s.

[CronkPSU]

Why?

A few reasons.

1. The westward trend seems to have stopped per the 18z runs.
2. Heading NW looking like heading for N andros Island
3. Models trending SLOWER

4. Going back at least 30+ years in these scenarios, these storms tend to make the turn north missing Florida at the last second.

Irma sure didn't...Katrina didn't

[DestinHurricane]

No the ECM actually shifted inland quite a bit in its 12z run from its offshore 00z previous run. So much so that Rick Knapp (former director of NHC) now on TWC consistently showed that run to warn tonight the center might likely come inland in Florida. The 18z Euro shifted slightly east from the 12z run, but it still tracks inland. Meanwhile, the major models on the right side of the guidance at 12z such as the GFS, GFS para, and HWRF have all shifted West on their 18z runs. Add in the UKMET, CMC, ICON, and NAVGEM as other models that now track inland in Florida and I think that's shaping up to be a pretty strong consensus. Could Iasias still stay offshore? Sure but Weight of evidence suggests less likely at this point.

Consensus is still a storm just offshore. Likely to follow the NAM and shift east at 0Z. Florida may just get some breeze and a few showers after all.

Destin, people are here for serious discussion as they have to make plans for their safety. Randomly throwing out cliches without a basis you actually understand, is hot helpful to people. I do feel you would like to learn. If you have questions, ask. Someone with experience will be more than happy to help you understand the why’s. That is what is great about this place. The pro’s and great seasoned amateurs are usually willing to help anyone learn the why’s and wherefore’s.

I am here for serious discussion. It could still hit S FL but it is my opinion that a S FL hit is looking less likely. We shall see how it plays out.

[AutoPenalti]

Im having trouble getting on TT.

[Blown Away]

Let's say Isaias follows the current NHC track, it's a pretty big bust from the Euro Boca landfall then into peninsula before turning. The Euro rarely wavers more than a few miles in the 24 hour range, if Isaias stays a little E of the track that's a big miss by the mighty Euro.

[HurricaneEnzo]

NAM still looks like it is coming in for landfall. Just slightly north of last run

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[NDG]

00Z NAM shifts EAST through 18 hours.

Is almost identical to the GFS now, just catching up with the big dogs.

[AxaltaRacing24]

NAM still looks like it is coming in for landfall. Just slightly north of last run

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you would think it went straight out to sea the way people are talking about this shift.