ATL: LAURA - Models

[Ivanhater]

Very noticeable east shift today

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[chaser1]

Notice the GFS ensembles which keep Laura on the weak side. The Euro is landfalling at 999MB so not too far off. Just don’t even look at the HWRF beyond 3 days. I am still waiting on the CAT 5 it showed for me just a couple of days ago

https://i.postimg.cc/KYcdWSWY/13-L-gefs-12z.png

Gator you are almost trolling at this point. I have seen you on here for a while and have not seen this from you before until this season. I don't know what up? We all know the HWRF overdoes the intensity and nobody that has been here for a while takes it as gospel. It has done a decent job on the evolution of the track for this system. At least it showed something unlike the Euro and GFS.

My concern is we cannot just downplay this because the reliable models plow this over land. if it does follow the northerly path lots of places are in for some trouble and may get caught off guard.

I honestly have less faith in both the EURO and GFS solutions beyond 2-3 days. Secondly, I've also found both models to be a bit "fast" with regard to track. On a note regarding upper air conditions, it seems quite apparent that "if" a well developed system were in the East Central GOM at the time, that the outflow pattern would seem to be ideal. I wouldn't discredit the HWRF if Laura begins to organize and really begins to look like a tropical storm. I think the HWRF represents a better high-end potential forecast tool "if" conditions are closer to optimal. Right now if I were looking for model support, i'd be more inclined to see if future CMC runs suggest slower and stronger. If so, the EURO and GFS would eventually catch up and then warrant greater inclusion into short term track and intensity forecast.

On a funny note, HMON brings Laura to near Brownsville. I swear, if THAT verifies I won't look at another model this year LOL.

[CrazyC83]

Could this be a case where stronger = west and weaker = east due to variance in upper-level flows? In other words, could the low-level steering try to send it into MS or AL, but the deep-layer steering try to parallel the LA coast?

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, noticeable correlation between track and intensity with EPS members. Definitely deserves a closer look.

[Michele B]

We can say models trending east?

For sure. GFS and Euro have both shifted east. TVCN will go east.

Shifting east makes me think of Charley....going to Tampa....donch'a know?

Except it ended up going right over MY HOUSE!!!!!

[crimi481]

Yes - I know Charlie. I am in Englewood. Just missed me

[chaser1]

Could this be a case where stronger = west and weaker = east due to variance in upper-level flows? In other words, could the low-level steering try to send it into MS or AL, but the deep-layer steering try to parallel the LA coast?

I personally wouldn't necessarily think so. Looking at the 12Z GFS run, the 200mb anticyclone is positioned a bit more east and over N. Central Florida at about 70-78 hr.'s. A further west track might cause Laura to incur a bit more southerly shear if further west. If Laura were to build it's own anticyclone over itself then I'd guess it wouldn't make all that much different either way. I think the EURO solution right now is more reflective of "forward track speed" and that WOULD kind of suggest what you're implying above. I think that a slightly weaker western extension of the W. Atlantic ridge into the GOM in tandem with a slower track solution, could spell a potential Major landfall between Pensacola and Mobile. Tropical Storm or Major hurricane landfall? EURO or HWRF? Usually the HWRF is the goat LOL, but i'm not so sure that'll be the case.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS:

[ronjon]

Anyone post the 12z ECM ensemble plot yet? LOL someone read my mind!

[ronjon]

Well so far its apparent the Euro is predicting a slightly stronger ridge than GFS.

[SouthernBreeze]

Amazing, thats seeing it possibly turning back into hurricane after emerging mid-atlantic!

[cp79]

We can say models trending east?

For sure. GFS and Euro have both shifted east. TVCN will go east.

Shifting east makes me think of Charley....going to Tampa....donch'a know?

Except it ended up going right over MY HOUSE!!!!!

You can thank Bonnie for that. It nudged it left. That's why I wonder if Marco could nudge Laura left like it did that storm. Not drastically, but just enough that could make the difference between New Orleans and Pensacola.

[DestinHurricane]

For sure. GFS and Euro have both shifted east. TVCN will go east.

Shifting east makes me think of Charley....going to Tampa....donch'a know?

Except it ended up going right over MY HOUSE!!!!!

You can thank Bonnie for that. It nudged it left. That's why I wonder if Marco could nudge Laura left like it did that storm. Not drastically, but just enough that could make the difference between New Orleans and Pensacola.

You mean right? I would think it would nudge it to the right.

[eastcoastFL]

12 Euro at 72 hours, definitely stronger. But how does it strengthen with all the land interaction especially between 24 and 48 hours? Seems unlikely. Conditions are favorable in the Gulf but I would be cautious looking at each of these runs until we see how Laura interacts with Hispaniola and Cuba which have some very tall mountains that have been known to shred cyclones apart. I imagine it is tough to model something like that:

https://i.postimg.cc/28mLM0Ct/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-watl-4.png

Following on to this, some potentially good news in that the 96 hour Euro forecast weakens Laura on the approach to the northern Gulf. Goes from 993MB at 72 hours to 999MB at 96 hours. I say potential because we need to see if other models stars picking up on whatever the Euro is seeing that causes the weakening:

https://i.postimg.cc/X7z3dv1g/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-watl-5.png

You just said to be cautious looking at a 24-48 hour forecast and then highlight potential good news at 96 hours. The storm is inland at that point, thus a weaker look.

The conditions in the Gulf will be ripe. The biggest question is what structure does it have after island interaction.

I think the euro was weaker this run because it sling shots the thing across the gulf. But even if it’s moving quick it would be surprising if it didn’t undergo strengthening in the gulf.

[bella_may]

Following on to this, some potentially good news in that the 96 hour Euro forecast weakens Laura on the approach to the northern Gulf. Goes from 993MB at 72 hours to 999MB at 96 hours. I say potential because we need to see if other models stars picking up on whatever the Euro is seeing that causes the weakening:

https://i.postimg.cc/X7z3dv1g/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-watl-5.png

You just said to be cautious looking at a 24-48 hour forecast and then highlight potential good news at 96 hours. The storm is inland at that point, thus a weaker look.

The conditions in the Gulf will be ripe. The biggest question is what structure does it have after island interaction.

I think the euro was weaker this run because it sling shots the thing across the gulf. But even if it’s moving quick it would be surprising if it didn’t undergo strengthening in the gulf.

Doesn’t the Euro usually underdo intensity? Hopefully it’s right and it doesn’t strengthen much

[Ivanhater]

I've had to move some posts. Please keep this thread only model related.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/uCS7yNv.png

One thing to note is that several members still show this heading towards Texas. The westward shifts may possibly not be over.

[ColdMiser123]

Yeah, noticeable correlation between track and intensity with EPS members. Definitely deserves a closer look.

Stronger ridge results in a more westward track, more time over the Gulf and favorable upper level conditions, which results in a stronger storm.

[SoupBone]

12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/uCS7yNv.png

That's still a huge swath from Corpus Christi to the Central Panhandle. This is why we never take a model run or two as gospel.

[ATCcane]

Looking at the 12Z EPS on weathermodels it's interesting to note that the majority of the stronger members are to the left of the ensemble mean and some quite a bit left.