ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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mpic
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2161 Postby mpic » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:34 pm

Have friends driving from Michigan to Florida leaving Tuesday morning and taking 2 days. How bad will it be if they run into the remnants on Wednesday?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2162 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:36 pm

New video update on Sally
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z11Opcn7ieI
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2163 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:37 pm

Appears to be a dry slot rotating into the circulation...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2164 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:38 pm

That tiny eyewall will not hold. Another round of intensification is likely to happen after the small eye collapses. In the meantime intensity will level off while the inner core sort itself out.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2165 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:41 pm

Looks like some brand new hot towers about to fire around the eye.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2166 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:42 pm

Like what Blown Away and supercane have said, Sally will be having some core structure changes and probably level off in intensity before trying to intensify again. The arrival of Dmax could lead to more massive convective bursts like what we saw this morning.

The fact that Sally would still have time to intensify after this before making landfall is not good at all. Its slow movement is very problematic for just about every reason possible.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2167 Postby MGC » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:46 pm

Blown Away wrote:Appears to be a dry slot rotating into the circulation...


A rather large dry slot. Landfall appears in eastern coastal Mississippi now. Looks like Mobile may get hammered....we shall see, never know with these tropical systems....MGC
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2168 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:50 pm

MGC, praying for you and everyone along the coast in the landfall target region.

GOD Speed!!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2169 Postby us89 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:52 pm

At this point, Sally wouldn't even have to meet technical RI criteria to landfall as a category 4. A 2 or probably 3 is more likely, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility just yet.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2170 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:53 pm

Crazy work all day, WOW Sally looks like she could possibly landfall in AL or even the FL panhandle. What the hell happened today :lol:
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2171 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:55 pm

Last eye drop was 63% RH at 700mb
Prev drop, 4+ hrs ago had 68% RH.
Low chance an EWRC is upcoming.

Towers overshooting the CDO with strong lighting.
4000 CAPE air pouring into the core in the feeder band.

Pinhole


Image

Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2172 Postby jdjaguar » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:59 pm

GCANE wrote:Last eye drop was 63% RH at 700mb
Prev drop, 4+ hrs ago had 68% RH.
Low chance an EWRC is upcoming.

Towers overshooting the CDO with strong lighting.
4000 CAPE air pouring into the core in the feeder band.

Pinhole


https://i.imgur.com/qCKX0LS.png

https://i.imgur.com/XhIncjv.png


That doesn’t sound good.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2173 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:03 pm

Looks like the center moved about three miles since the last pass.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2174 Postby TJRE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:04 pm

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus.php?sat=G16

wallpaper for weather nerds......

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2175 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:04 pm

GCANE wrote:Last eye drop was 63% RH at 700mb
Prev drop, 4+ hrs ago had 68% RH.
Low chance an EWRC is upcoming.

Towers overshooting the CDO with strong lighting.
4000 CAPE air pouring into the core in the feeder band.

Pinhole


https://i.imgur.com/qCKX0LS.png

https://i.imgur.com/XhIncjv.png


The satellite appearance has degraded, any idea what the issue is?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2176 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:04 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like the eye is warming on IR. Hot towers firing to the NE

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2177 Postby Chemmers » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:05 pm

Looks like the eye is trying to close off again
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2178 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:05 pm

If you look at CIMSS, this is sitting in about 20+ knots of shear, yet she is going gang busters.
I think this has to do with the cold pool I was mentioning.
Check out the latest thermal profile from AMSU.
Not much of a warm core, but the cold pool is deep.
This is IMHO is analogous to big self sustaining MCS / MCV's that need a large cold pool and shear to sustain themselves and intensify.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2179 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:06 pm

Even if strengthening is leveling off like some here have suggested, There isn’t much of a difference between the 100 mph it is now, and the 110 mph it’s forecast to become. Storm surge will still be devastating no matter what due to slow movement
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2180 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:06 pm

GCANE wrote:If you look at CIMSS, this is sitting in about 20+ knots of shear, yet she is going gang busters.
I think this has to do with the cold pool I was mentioning.
Check out the latest thermal profile from AMSU.
Not much of a warm core, but the cold pool is deep.
This is IMHO is analogous to big self sustaining MCS / MCV's that need a large cold pool and shear to sustain themselves and intensify.

https://i.imgur.com/e9N7TJf.png

https://i.imgur.com/EeSIzgG.gif

Yeah shear will enhance the updrafts and latent heat release if it can wrap upshear.
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