aspen wrote:I think there’s a good chance that by the end of the day, we will have a forming TC with far greater confidence in the location of its center and its path. It already looks to be getting its act together.
Very likely, with the center reformed offshore and convection building even more. The chances of seeing a TD by 5pm are good.
The only thing that would hold that back is the tilt of the system.
the old circ that is about to emerge off the coast around savannah still has some weight to it which means it is still trying to compete with the newly formed circ. that may cause the axis to tilt from SW to NE which is what it is now. to more of a NW -SE tilt.
that might push the newly formed circ inland while another circ takes advantage of the rotational energy and we get another circ farther south and more offshore.
This would really just serve to slow down the classification and allow a little more time over water.
