EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#221 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:03 pm


Given the thermodynamic environment, this will likely develop some annular traits shortly, making the low Dvorak estimates even more puzzling. This is probably at least 120 knots at this moment and is likely to peak at 130-135 knots within the twenty-four hours, given a well-developed dual outflow pattern and access to the ITCZ despite cooler SSTs and more stable air to the north and west.
5 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#222 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:05 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
TXPZ25 KNES 231227
TCSENP

A. 08E (DOUGLAS)

B. 23/1130Z

C. 13.3N

D. 135.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...PEAK INTENSITY MAY HAVE OCCURRED AT 0530Z WHEN THE DT WAS
A 6.0. A WMG EYE WAS MEASURED, EMBEDDED IN MG WITH A RING TEMP OF LG,
CREATING AN EYE ADJ OF +0.5, RESULTING IN A DT OF 5.0. THE MET AND PT
AGREE AND THE FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE


Are we looking at the same storm?

Does anyone know why some of these Dvorak estimates have become more conservative this year?


I've honestly been wondering the same thing. Did the formula change or something? New guy? What's going on here lol


If anything the latter but there are questionable fixes each year.
1 likes   
Top
OahuWahine
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 60
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:03 am
Location: Mililani, HI

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#223 Postby OahuWahine » Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:17 pm

It's worth mentioning that we've been getting a lot of rain lately so the ground is already saturated. Yesterday we had a downpour that filled my front yard with an inch of water and it's raining again today.
0 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#224 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:35 pm

Finally a good looking TC in the NHEM.

Image
8 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22784
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#225 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:51 pm

Pretty good looking system this is. We know the history with storms surviving the trek towards Hawaii but surprised not more buzz about it.
7 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
 Help Support Storm2K
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#226 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:Pretty good looking system this is. We know the history with storms surviving the trek towards Hawaii but surprised not more buzz about it.

Ntxw good to hear from you again.
4 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#227 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:54 pm

23/1730 UTC 13.8N 136.3W T6.0/6.0 DOUGLAS -- East Pacific


NHC will think about Cat.4 now. ADT could bring the average down since its @ 5.6 CI.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#228 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:57 pm

I’m thinking this could actually be around 125-130 kt. Looks like the “stadium effect” is present, and convection appears to be deepening.
3 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#229 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:04 pm

Absolutely no change for 18z...wow, this is almost JTWC-levels of underestimating. Even 115 kt seems a little low; 105 kt is really underestimated. ADT is probably dragging this down a lot.
3 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#230 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:05 pm

Looks pretty solid. 115kt should be the minimum.

Image
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#231 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:07 pm

Image

T6.0 but TAFB is probably at T5.5 as their Dvoraking is slightly different than Dvorak (1984) and it shows up in these slight cases.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#232 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:08 pm

Standard 3 way blend supports 110 knots, though this seems like the kind of storm that outruns its Dvorak. I'd probably go 115 knots.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22784
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#233 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:09 pm

aspen wrote:Absolutely no change for 18z...wow, this is almost JTWC-levels of underestimating. Even 115 kt seems a little low; 105 kt is really underestimated. ADT is probably dragging this down a lot.


Its clouds have been getting colder more recently. I would have at minimum went with 115kts.

Image
5 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K

Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#234 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:15 pm

Classical, textbook structured tropical cyclone! Douglas is absolutely beautiful!
3 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#235 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:16 pm

Reminds me of Lane ‘18 on visible when it approached Cat 5 status. I’m not saying Douglas is a 5, but he’s definitely at least 120 kt.
Image
3 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 739
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#236 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:16 pm

to me it looks like a system at least in the 125kt-130kt range. I am far from an expert though. The latest dvorak imagery indicates it has almost wrapped a white ring all the way around the CDO. It's not uniform all the way around, thicker in some areas than others but come on. I'm not buying this is a 115kt system.
0 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#237 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:21 pm

Lots of us here who watch these EPAC systems -- that cross into the CPAC and get Recon, know this qualifies for at least 120kts. 105kt systems don't look like this lol... Not in the EPAC at least.

Image
3 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#238 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:21 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:to me it looks like a system at least in the 125kt-130kt range. I am far from an expert though. The latest dvorak imagery indicates it has almost wrapped a white ring all the way around the CDO. It's not uniform all the way around, thicker in some areas than others but come on. I'm not buying this is a 115kt system.


I would go with 125 Kt right now..Douglas has a good chance of being a Category 4 cyclone soon.
2 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#239 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:24 pm

Also bummed out that recon is flying in on Saturday vs Friday but they probably thought it had time. If this is to affect Hawaii, effects will begin on the Big Island on Saturday.
Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane

#240 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:26 pm

OahuWahine wrote:It's worth mentioning that we've been getting a lot of rain lately so the ground is already saturated. Yesterday we had a downpour that filled my front yard with an inch of water and it's raining again today.

Yeah the weather has been pretty bad here with humidity off the charts. But yesterday's rain had little to do with Douglas lol.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests