ATL: MARCO - Models

[Steve]

^^ Looks like a weak but classified hit on Harrison/Jackson Co., MS. It's a lot faster than a few days ago, but it keeps the entity. And yeah, it looks like a TD or weak TS. 98L is coming through the FL Keys, and the next system is NE of the Islands by a bit. Would possibly be a fish if that far north that far east, but you'd expect high pressure to be building back into the SE US if 13 was moving NW or WNW.

Anyway, very quick weakening trend from not much but rain up in North Mississippi.

[Steve]

GFS remains disinterested in 97L. It sort of loses it leaving a low center in Central America and kind of pushing a shadow low on its run into the BoC. It does have an affinity for the next system coming behind. This is 108 hours, so it still has time to get an F+ on 97.

[Steve]

LMAO @ 114 hours. Anybody want to take the GFS in a bet that this is what 13 and 97L look like then? I'll give you 6:5

[Steve]

Canadian ends up with the hurricane hit in Tamaulipas.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro is developing this now heading towards the NW Gulf. I would say chances of development are increasing based on the latest trends.

[wxman22]

Yep 0z EURO has a tropical storm hitting the upper Texas coast next Tuesday.

[Astromanía]

Canadian ends up with the hurricane hit in Tamaulipas.
https://i.imgur.com/HQ3SUyl.png

Oh no...

[Steve]

06Z

GFS - Brings a weak and weakening 97L up toward SETX and washes it out. Brings 98L around Apalachicola.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=126
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=144

ICON - Brings a fairly weak and weakening low toward the SC LA Coast. Brings an also weak 98L through the Keys
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=120

Navgem - Brings a strong TD #13 to a Cat-1 or low-end 2 (982mb) to Miami and comes up the western side of the state. Meanwhile it leaves 97L in the western Gulf which strengthens and is moving NNW or so toward the upper TX Coast also at 982mb.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=144

HWRF is weak & off the SWLA Coast
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=126

HMON ends up East of Brownsville as not much
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=126

^^ These are mostly all in the 5 day range.

[SoupBone]

06Z

GFS - Brings a weak and weakening 97L up toward SETX and washes it out. Brings 98L around Apalachicola.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=126
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=144

ICON - Brings a fairly weak and weakening low toward the SC LA Coast. Brings an also weak 98L through the Keys
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=120

Navgem - Brings a strong TD #13 to a Cat-1 or low-end 2 (982mb) to Miami and comes up the western side of the state. Meanwhile it leaves 97L in the western Gulf which strengthens and is moving NNW or so toward the upper TX Coast also at 982mb.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=144

HWRF is weak & off the SWLA Coast
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=126

HMON ends up East of Brownsville as not much
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=126

^^ These are mostly all in the 5 day range.

I'm gonna say this again, but for the models to be all over the place for 97L still and within 5 days is unreal. From Northern Mexico to Biloxi, MS? Yeah that's only 1000 miles between the two places.

[PTrackerLA]

06z Para GFS has 970mb @ 90hrs in central GOM

[stormlover2013]

icon tropical storm upper texas coast on 12z

[chaser1]

Models are making me crazy. They seem to be consistently playing catch up on genesis, but eventually honing in on track. I personally think that TD 14 will deepen further today and get tagged a TS by tonight. I also think that further deepening will result in TD14 to begin to slow down during the day and into tonight, which might impact the system to gain a bit more latitude then forecast in the near term. My thought is that the 5 day track will end up being adjusted to the right with landfall finally occurring somewhere between Mobile and W. Louisiana

[cp79]

06Z

GFS - Brings a weak and weakening 97L up toward SETX and washes it out. Brings 98L around Apalachicola.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=126
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=144

ICON - Brings a fairly weak and weakening low toward the SC LA Coast. Brings an also weak 98L through the Keys
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=120

Navgem - Brings a strong TD #13 to a Cat-1 or low-end 2 (982mb) to Miami and comes up the western side of the state. Meanwhile it leaves 97L in the western Gulf which strengthens and is moving NNW or so toward the upper TX Coast also at 982mb.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=144

HWRF is weak & off the SWLA Coast
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=126

HMON ends up East of Brownsville as not much
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=126

^^ These are mostly all in the 5 day range.

I'm gonna say this again, but for the models to be all over the place for 97L still and within 5 days is unreal. From Northern Mexico to Biloxi, MS? Yeah that's only 1000 miles between the two places.

It’s mostly because they can’t decide on speed and strenghth. The stronger it gets the more north that storm will go and I think it’s going to be on the stronger side.

Also that in turn affects what TD13 does. If it moves more towards Mississippi, then TD13 turns north somewhere on the Fla East is West side like the HWRF or ICON are suggesting.

[stormlover2013]

Tropical Depression # 14 forms in the NW Caribbean Sea

A threat to the NW Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week.

Persons along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Review hurricane plans and be prepared to enact those plans this weekend.

Discussion:
Visible satellite images indicate that weak westerly winds have developed on the southern side of the well defined tropical wave axis over the NW Caribbean Sea and that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite images also show the formation of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the northern semi-circle of the circulation and the gradual formation of curved banding. The depression is moving toward the west/WNW

Track:
The depression is moving toward the northwest Caribbean Sea and this general W to WNW motion is expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours bringing the system toward the Yucatan. Over the weekend the system turn toward the NW around the southwestern side of a building sub-tropical ridge over the southwest Atlantic Ocean and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models are starting to come into better agreement with a continued track of the system toward the NW Gulf of Mexico by early next week as a weakness remains near the TX coast and high pressure builds westward from the SW Atlantic.

Intensity:
Conditions are favorable for additional intensification over the western Caribbean Sea over the next 24-36 hours before the system interacts with the Yucatan. As 14 moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the current strong southwesterly shear on the SE/E side of the large scale trough over the NW Gulf will begin to subside and conditions will become increasing favorable for development. It is uncertain how quickly the shear will relax and if dry air near the TX coast could become entrained into the circulation, but overall conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be increasing favorable for development.

update from JeffLinder

[Steve]

ICON -Weakening system moving across Galveston/Houston for 14 and a hit east of Apalachicola for 13 (Cat 2ish). Though many models that have brought 14 to the west Gulf have weakened it, this basically spins for 2-3 days off Cameron Parish, LA. While that could certainly mean some weakening over time, probably not as much as the ICON shows.


GFS through 66 hours (welcome to the party GFS)

[Steve]

GFS is headed toward Morgan City (St. Mary Parish or so) at 102 hours as a Cat 1. It hit SFL with a weak #13.

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting that the GFS is favoring TD #14 over TD #13 now and is indicating a hurricane potential for the northern Gulf Coast .

[stormlover2013]

http://flhurricane.com/images/2020/clark14latest.png

[NDG]

Surprising, historic? Not in 2020, anything is possible.

[Shell Mound]

Here’s an interesting thought: wouldn’t a stronger TD Fourteen in the GoM “pump up” the ridge to its east-northeast, bringing TD Thirteen farther W as well?