ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Yep, is a closed circulation, now they they just have to fix the CoC., lol.

URNT15 KNHC 011506
AF307 01FFA INVEST HDOB 26 20200901
145730 1607N 07725W 9774 00294 0111 +218 //// 239015 016 /// /// 05
145800 1606N 07724W 9773 00296 0110 +221 +216 220015 016 /// /// 03
145830 1605N 07722W 9769 00299 0109 +229 +207 229015 016 /// /// 03
145900 1605N 07721W 9771 00299 //// +221 //// 231013 015 /// /// 05
145930 1604N 07719W 9770 00299 0109 +224 +216 235014 015 /// /// 03
150000 1603N 07718W 9770 00298 0109 +233 +212 238014 015 /// /// 03
150030 1602N 07716W 9774 00297 0111 +230 +218 224013 014 /// /// 03
150100 1602N 07715W 9770 00301 0112 +226 +218 215011 013 /// /// 05
150130 1601N 07714W 9777 00296 0113 +223 +222 214006 010 /// /// 05
150200 1559N 07714W 9758 00311 //// +220 //// 204003 004 /// /// 05
150230 1559N 07712W 9762 00309 //// +223 //// 200007 008 /// /// 05
150300 1600N 07711W 9772 00302 //// +220 //// 184006 007 /// /// 05
150330 1601N 07710W 9772 00300 0114 +224 +219 197006 006 /// /// 03
150400 1602N 07709W 9771 00302 0114 +223 +217 168006 007 /// /// 03
150430 1603N 07708W 9768 00305 0115 +225 +215 165008 009 /// /// 03
150500 1605N 07706W 9773 00301 0114 +224 +215 162008 010 /// /// 03
150530 1606N 07705W 9769 00303 0114 +225 +218 166009 010 /// /// 03
150600 1607N 07704W 9773 00300 0114 +226 +219 170010 011 /// /// 03
150630 1608N 07703W 9771 00302 0114 +224 +222 181010 011 /// /// 05
150700 1609N 07702W 9769 00303 0113 +227 +216 186012 013 017 000 01
$$

They wont unless they gain altitude.. another one of those weird avoid the center and convection flights.

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

Considering its current organization and the environment. a hurricane is a very distinct possibility.

[wxman57]

Center looks to be near 16.2-16.3N and 77.5W. At least a TD. No wind over 25 kts yet, but heading to NE quadrant now. Inland and dissipating in CA at 48 hrs looks like a good forecast. High over the Gulf won't allow it to come north.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Wonder if Nana will make it to the Pacific Basin somewhat intact.

[GCANE]

Solid in the convection.
Right where that inflow was speeding up into.
This will ramp up.

[NDG]

Center looks to be near 16.2-16.3N and 77.5W. At least a TD. No wind over 25 kts yet, but heading to NE quadrant now. Inland and dissipating in CA at 48 hrs looks like a good forecast. High over the Gulf won't allow it to come north.

They still haven't sampled the NE quadrant where I think the stronger winds are. So far unflagged 31 knot winds found.

51700 1635N 07704W 9772 00298 0109 +245 +209 154029 031 031 000 00

[us89]

Obviously this is now probably going to beat 15 to TS, which is really a shame as far as I'm concerned. Nana should be a weak fish storm, not a hurricane heading for Central America...

[Aric Dunn]

Winds are probably closer to 45 to 50mph in that deep convection they are going to avoid.

in clear air..

on the east side..

31kt SFMR

NOrth side is likely easily well into the 40s with the forward speed.

[TheStormExpert]

Obviously this is now probably going to beat 15 to TS, which is really a shame as far as I'm concerned. Nana should be a weak fish storm, not a hurricane heading for Central America...

Yeah this’ll likely become Nana.

[aspen]

FL and SFMR winds are rising above 30 kt. There could be TS winds in that hot tower.

[wxman57]

Center looks to be near 16.2-16.3N and 77.5W. At least a TD. No wind over 25 kts yet, but heading to NE quadrant now. Inland and dissipating in CA at 48 hrs looks like a good forecast. High over the Gulf won't allow it to come north.

They still haven't sampled the NE quadrant where I think the stronger winds are. So far unflagged 31 knot winds found.

51700 1635N 07704W 9772 00298 0109 +245 +209 154029 031 031 000 00

Yeah, that's what I said - "heading to NE quadrant now".

[tailgater]

Still has SSE flight level winds at 16.5 N

[GCANE]

Theta-e ridge continues to deepen and pushing east towards the CoC.

[Aric Dunn]

Still has SSE flight level winds at 16.5 N

SE and East and NE winds.

fully closed.

but unless they gain altitude

we wont get to see the actual intensity

since they are avoiding the deep convection and the center thus far.

[NDG]

Still has SSE flight level winds at 16.5 N

SE and East and NE winds.

fully closed.

but unless they gain altitude

we wont get to see the actual intensity

since they are avoiding the deep convection and the center thus far.

https://i.ibb.co/99Kdxtk/recon-AF307-01-FFA-INVEST.png

It can't be more evident that that of a well defined closed circulation.

[EquusStorm]

It'd just be peak 2020 to have Hurricane Nana survive the crossover and somehow cross the whole Pacific, forcing us to track for weeks the name we've been not really wanting to use for a significant storm lol

[SouthDadeFish]

Yup, center is definitely closed. West winds are fairly strong too. Seeing some signs that the center is slightly elliptical, SW-NE, but that is not uncommon for a weak TC. It's likely there is TS-force winds somewhere in the circulation. This will probably be upgraded to TS Nana any minute.

[wxman57]

The plane won't fly into heavier convection at such a low flight level. Expect an upgrade to TS Nana shortly. Center looks to be a bit elongated, but around 16.3 to 16.5N and 77.5W. At least it's no threat to the Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

50 mph it is..

153230 1641N 07741W 9261 00752 0108 +197 +197 073034 038 039 009 00
153300 1640N 07740W 9268 00744 0104 +198 //// 083036 040 041 009 01
153330 1638N 07739W 9261 00756 0109 +189 //// 081040 042 039 009 01
153400 1637N 07739W 9246 00767 0103 +186 +184 080043 045 038 009 00
153430 1635N 07739W 9243 00764 0099 +183 //// 065041 045 037 007 01
153500 1634N 07738W 9246 00751 0086 +190 //// 065049 053 043 003 05
153530 1632N 07738W 9243 00740 //// +201 //// 064040 053 045 002 01
153600 1631N 07737W 9252 00720 0043 +220 +198 065022 031 043 004 00
153630 1630N 07736W 9253 00718 0042 +215 +208 086008 014 026 001 00
153700 1628N 07736W 9245 00724 0043 +213 +207 287004 008 019 001 03