ATL: DELTA - Models

[Jr0d]

My amateur opinion on the models is they are overestimating Gamma's strength and the interaction between the two storms. I would be surprised if Delta makes it much further West than the 90° meridian before making the north turn. However my record is poor when making these kind of guesses.

Hopefully the recon data will solidify the model consensus and this time tomorrow will have some confidence in the track. Even though the guidance is fairly clustered, I still think the uncertainty is higher than normal right now.

[chaser1]

My amateur opinion on the models is they are overestimating Gamma's strength and the interaction between the two storms. I would be surprised if Delta makes it much further West than the 90° meridian before making the north turn. However my record is poor when making these kind of guesses.

Hopefully the recon data will solidify the model consensus and this time tomorrow will have some confidence in the track. Even though the guidance is fairly clustered, I still think the uncertainty is higher than normal right now.

I think your point regarding a much weakened Gamma is a reasonable one.

[bella_may]

My amateur opinion on the models is they are overestimating Gamma's strength and the interaction between the two storms. I would be surprised if Delta makes it much further West than the 90° meridian before making the north turn. However my record is poor when making these kind of guesses.

Hopefully the recon data will solidify the model consensus and this time tomorrow will have some confidence in the track. Even though the guidance is fairly clustered, I still think the uncertainty is higher than normal right now.

I think your point regarding a much weakened Gamma is a reasonable one.

It’ll be interesting to see what the NHC says about it.

[SoupBone]

I know SE Texas is supposed to be somewhat protected right now but the Para shifting west too is concerning. And Lake Charles is barely into recovery mode, they definitely don't need a Laura repeat.

I'd almost bet now that the cone shifts west and SE Texas ends up in the cone tonight.

[sphelps8681]

I know SE Texas is supposed to be somewhat protected right now but the Para shifting west too is concerning. And Lake Charles is barely into recovery mode, they definitely don't need a Laura repeat.

I'd almost bet now that the cone shifts west and SE Texas ends up in the cone tonight.

Come on man!! Don't talk like that. But will be watching just in case.

[Steve]

My amateur opinion on the models is they are overestimating Gamma's strength and the interaction between the two storms. I would be surprised if Delta makes it much further West than the 90° meridian before making the north turn. However my record is poor when making these kind of guesses.

Hopefully the recon data will solidify the model consensus and this time tomorrow will have some confidence in the track. Even though the guidance is fairly clustered, I still think the uncertainty is higher than normal right now.

I think your point regarding a much weakened Gamma is a reasonable one.

Weaker and weakening, but also along the Yucatan rather than deep into the BoC. So it's possible that a weaker but closer Gamma may have similar effects that a stronger more distant Gamma would have. Wait and see on that.

[SoupBone]

I know SE Texas is supposed to be somewhat protected right now but the Para shifting west too is concerning. And Lake Charles is barely into recovery mode, they definitely don't need a Laura repeat.

I'd almost bet now that the cone shifts west and SE Texas ends up in the cone tonight.

Come on man!! Don't talk like that. But will be watching just in case.

These continued west shifts are concerning. I do understand the Euro having a west bias but if we see a few more runs with the GFS moving west, and no east shift flip flops like we see sometimes, it's starting to get more worrying. Especially if it can impact an area that just got slammed.

[AutoPenalti]

WOW, there is literally not a trough in sight. That's insane.

[sphelps8681]

I know SE Texas is supposed to be somewhat protected right now but the Para shifting west too is concerning. And Lake Charles is barely into recovery mode, they definitely don't need a Laura repeat.

I'd almost bet now that the cone shifts west and SE Texas ends up in the cone tonight.

Come on man!! Don't talk like that. But will be watching just in case.

These continued west shifts are concerning. I do understand the Euro having a west bias but if we see a few more runs with the GFS moving west, and no east shift flip flops like we see sometimes, it's starting to get more worrying. Especially if it can impact an area that just got slammed.

Thanks for the update!! Keep us all informed. Appreciate ya!!

[bella_may]

NHC isn’t buying the euro yet

[Blinhart]

NHC isn’t buying the euro yet

They shifted the cone SW in the first 72 hours, but didn't adjust the ending points yet, they want to wait a little bit longer to see what the models show with the new information/data ingested into them

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

NHC isn’t buying the euro yet

Im not either. Like others have said, the Euro has taken alot of storms into the SETX area this season and it goes slightly more east. Im still holding firm in agreeance with the SELA landfall. The pattern has turned out correct more often than not with eastward storms that were forcasted west

[Blow_Hard]

WOW, there is literally not a trough in sight. That's insane.

I concur. Wonder what trough the NHC is referring to in their Discussion, They mention a trough will be digging down and turning Delta N then NNE...I'm like you, whrer is this phantom trough?

[Blinhart]

WOW, there is literally not a trough in sight. That's insane.

I concur. Wonder what trough the NHC is referring to in their Discussion, They mention a trough will be digging down and turning Delta N then NNE...I'm like you, whrer is this phantom trough?

I think it says it forms Thursday over Texas, don't know if a trough can just form or has to come down from somewhere, but they said it would be over Texas in 3 days, so we will have to see.

[Nimbus]

WOW, there is literally not a trough in sight. That's insane.

There is Canadian air streaming south just east of Idaho and major hurricanes really stir up the upper air patterns so maybe we get another trough due to the slower initial forward speed delaying the storm long enough.

[bella_may]

18Z gfs.. almost the same landfall (maybe a hair sw) but slower and much stronger. This is not good

[SoupBone]

Yeah so continued shifts west with the models, not just the Euro now. So now the Euro, GFS Para and GFS have shifted a good bit west. Wonder how much more west they will shift.

[AxaltaRacing24]

HMON is 38mb stronger 33 hrs in and more sw than 12z.

[supercane4867]

HWRF is back to showing an intense hurricane.

[LarryWx]

HWRF is back to showing an intense hurricane.

And continues the SW trend as it touches the Yucatan. If this trend keeps up, Delta may cross more and more of the Yucatan. If so, that should lead to some at least temporary weakening.