ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Anythong from AF304?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
You have to wonder if there's something going on with Maintenance schedules.
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HurricaneAndre2008
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
We need to start a GoFundMe. Who's with me
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
OMG, eye temperture is at least -5C if not higher.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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HurricaneAndre2008
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
This is the worst recon year ever
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
06z Dvorak fixes might be able to get a CAT5 upgrade. Without recon, 140kt is likely the ceiling now. 
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
That's why my pulse was increasing rapidly as I was checking the recon data feed earlier, I was on the edge of my seat as to would it make it in before some BS where it then just turns around...like Teal is doing now
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hopefully AF304 can still get some transmissions in. Without recon it's going to be harder to get the operational Cat 5 upgrade, which I think it should get. We'll see, NHC knows what they're doing. I bet they'll upgrade at the intermediate assuming Eta keeps deepening at the current rate.
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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HurricaneAndre2008
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Logo
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Nov. 3, 2020
4:06 Z
Map: Google Earth Logo Cesium Logo
11/03 03:10 | 15 | 925mb | 127kts (137kts) | 135kts (135kts)
Raw?
Note: "In. Flt" is max inbound flight level wind. "In. Sfc" is max inbound surface wind, estimated by SFMR or visually. If outbound wind is reported, then highest wind, inbound or outbound from center, is in parenthesis. Winds usually averaged over 10s period. Extrap. MSLPs have (e) next to them. Add missed obs.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 4:03Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Number & Year: 29 in 2020
Storm Name: Eta (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 3:10:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.03N 82.61W
B. Center Fix Location: 373 statute miles (600 km) to the SSW (193°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,435m (7,989ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 925mb (27.32 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 290° at 14kts (From the WNW at 16mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 135kts (155.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the SE (127°) of center fix at 3:07:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 232° at 127kts (From the SW at 146.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the SE (135°) of center fix at 3:06:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 125kts (143.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the NE (43°) of center fix at 3:13:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 135° at 125kts (From the SE at 143.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the NE (43°) of center fix at 3:13:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,998m (9,836ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3°C (37°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 137kts (~ 157.7mph) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the SSW (193°) from the flight level center at 2:18:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MANY MESOVORTICES ROTATING ON INSIDE EYEWALL.
Menu
Nov. 3, 2020
4:06 Z
Map: Google Earth Logo Cesium Logo
11/03 03:10 | 15 | 925mb | 127kts (137kts) | 135kts (135kts)
Raw?
Note: "In. Flt" is max inbound flight level wind. "In. Sfc" is max inbound surface wind, estimated by SFMR or visually. If outbound wind is reported, then highest wind, inbound or outbound from center, is in parenthesis. Winds usually averaged over 10s period. Extrap. MSLPs have (e) next to them. Add missed obs.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 4:03Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Number & Year: 29 in 2020
Storm Name: Eta (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 3:10:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.03N 82.61W
B. Center Fix Location: 373 statute miles (600 km) to the SSW (193°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,435m (7,989ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 925mb (27.32 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 290° at 14kts (From the WNW at 16mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 135kts (155.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the SE (127°) of center fix at 3:07:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 232° at 127kts (From the SW at 146.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the SE (135°) of center fix at 3:06:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 125kts (143.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the NE (43°) of center fix at 3:13:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 135° at 125kts (From the SE at 143.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the NE (43°) of center fix at 3:13:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,998m (9,836ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3°C (37°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 137kts (~ 157.7mph) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the SSW (193°) from the flight level center at 2:18:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MANY MESOVORTICES ROTATING ON INSIDE EYEWALL.
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Cindy(2005), Katrina(2005), Rita(2005), Erin(2007), Isaac(2012)
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
I’m curious if the AF plane is still able to get data even if they can’t transmit it yet? Or if they are even allowed to?
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:06z Dvorak fixes might be able to get a CAT5 upgrade. Without recon, 140kt is likely the ceiling now.
As long as they just get the right category, they can sort it out post-season honestly. But if it's a Cat 5, it needs to be upgraded
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Without any more recon, I'm honestly doubting this gets classified (operationally at least) as a C5... which is an odd thing to say, given how perfect the presentation is and the continuing RI trend.
Last edited by Beef Stew on Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:This is the worst recon year ever
Blame COVID.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Dropsonde was 925 mb
925mb (Surface) 290° (from the WNW) 14 knots (16 mph)
925mb (Surface) 290° (from the WNW) 14 knots (16 mph)
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
The incoming AF plane aborted. Very bad day for the squadron.
https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1323472423975604225
https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1323472423975604225
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
All the recon planes are getting signal! Dropsonde reveals a 3 MB drop from an hour before. (925 MB)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:Weather Dude wrote:They need to send a NOAA plane out there... they've been non-existent with this storm
NOAA is down to one P3 for now, and that plane had maintenance issues today.
Sounds like they need new planes.
The new planes need to be jet powered and a lot faster!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
The dropsondes are transmitting but I believe that they don’t use the same transmission signal as the planes.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Another SE eyewall drop of 155 knots at the surface! Maybe these measurements are not wind gusts?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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