ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

INIT 30/1500Z 18.1N 68.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 19.7N 71.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

Above is from 11am prediction, the pace Isaias is moving he will pass 71.4W well before 0000z. He might pass 19.7 to the N to.

It sure seems like you’re correct and it’s not quite inland either

[Jr0d]

Obviously now the storm has consolidated, the energy will not be split in two like I thought was a possibility yesterday. I was not expecting a center to have 'reformed' so quickly hugging the north coast of Hispaniola either. I still think it will miss the Florida, but losing confidence in that guess.

Tomorrow morning will give me much more confidence in the future track. I told my parents to prepare for hurricane conditions in Cocoa Beach, Fl because I expect them to be under a hurricane watch by tomorrow morning.

Once Isaiac clears the mountains and slows down, I expect it to quickly become a hurricane.

"Just an amateur opinion, not to be taken as a professional forecast"

[EquusStorm]

Wonder if NHC will nudge forecast intensity up just a tad at 5

[NDG]

Wow, Isaias continued to deepened along the coast, Puerto Plata along the northern coast is reporting a pressure of 1001mb.

2020 UTC 30 Jul 2020

METAR for: MDPP (Puerto Plata Arpt, --, DR)
Text: MDPP 302000Z 06025G35KT 6000 -RA OVC016 25/25 Q1001
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C ( 77°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.56 inches Hg (1001.0 mb)
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 29 MPH (25 knots; 12.9 m/s) gusting to 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.0 m/s)
Visibility: 4 sm ( 6 km)
Ceiling: 1600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1600 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

[tiger_deF]

Is there any possibility of Isaias affecting Cape Cod? I have some family there and while I've been up to date on the models and forecasts, usually NE has been pushed out of cone after cone in the past

[eastcoastFL]

Obviously now the storm has consolidated, the energy will not be split in two like I thought was a possibility yesterday. I was not expecting a center to have 'reformed' so quickly hugging the north coast of Hispaniola either. I still think it will miss the Florida, but losing confidence in that guess.

Tomorrow morning will give me much more confidence in the future track. I told my parents to prepare for hurricane conditions in Cocoa Beach, Fl because I expect them to be under a hurricane watch by tomorrow morning.

Once Isaiac clears the mountains and slows down, I expect it to quickly become a hurricane.

"Just an amateur opinion, not to be taken as a professional forecast"

I hope you’re right and it does miss the Florida because I do not want to put shutters up. I’m a little south of your parents in Martin county but closeish to the water. I do not feel confident either way right now

[eastcoastFL]

Is there any possibility of Isaias affecting Cape Cod? I have some family there and while I've been up to date on the models and forecasts, usually NE has been pushed out of cone after cone in the past

The cape is a real possibility next week. Stay tuned.

[Jr0d]

Wonder if NHC will nudge forecast intensity up just a tad at 5

I dont think they will have a choice. Not sure if they will issue hurricane watches for Florida yet, but fully expect a tropical storm watch for Florida in about half an hour from Key Largo to Cape Caneveral.

"Amateur opinion, NOT professional advice!"

[pgoss11]

Is there any possibility of Isaias affecting Cape Cod? I have some family there and while I've been up to date on the models and forecasts, usually NE has been pushed out of cone after cone in the past

I don’t think we’ll know that definitively for a few days. We need an established COC and also to see how strong the ridge is and how strong the shortwave coming in is. Good thing is here... the majority of the time the storms go wide right here.

[GCANE]

The lowest pressure at 4PM seems to be the east end of the island at 29.45" (997.3mb)
Santo Domingo (South Shore) at 29.62"
Puerto Plata (North Shore) at 29.55"

[EquusStorm]

I still can't get over the title Isaias next to a post date of July, this year's kinda surreal

[eastcoastFL]

Are there no active buoys in this area?

[NDG]

Incredible.

[gatorcane]

Incredible.

https://i.imgur.com/0va64XD.gif

Wow, maybe get an eye soon?

[DestinHurricane]

Any guesses for the NHC's upcoming intensity and track? I'll go with 60 kt max, just as they have it now and they move the cone east a good ways.

[Blown Away]

Incredible.

https://i.imgur.com/0va64XD.gif

Looks WNW now, been hugging that coast for a few hours.

[GCANE]

The lowest pressure at 4PM seems to be the east end of the island at 29.45" (997.3mb)
Santo Domingo (South Shore) at 29.62"
Puerto Plata (North Shore) at 29.55"

Obvious where the surface low is especially with the strong convection firing from winds piling up against the mountains.
Not sure if its closed off though.

[Jimsot]

Isaias seems to be 'ignoring' Hispaniola.

[chaser1]

The lowest pressure at 4PM seems to be the east end of the island at 29.45" (997.3mb)
Santo Domingo (South Shore) at 29.62"
Puerto Plata (North Shore) at 29.55"

Wow, that is quite a broad pressure field??!!

[Vdogg]

Sure does look like an eye is trying to form right on the north coast of DR.