ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[NDG]

I can predict it now, the NAVGEM will swing back to the east at 0z before going back west at 06z again

[Steve]

ICON during the past few days has been very persistent in inconsistency, so in another words it has been all over the place on each run

I haven't really paid much attention to the storm until today. And I always trust what you say. It's probably still screwing up, but we're in 72-84 hours. Could be close, and if so, reasonably solid threat for the Carolinas and then up the East Coast.

[HurricaneEnzo]

So far gfs looking about the same just slower

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[AxaltaRacing24]

The first plot of the 0z GFS is already south of the 18z...

weaker ridge though. east shift is likely i feel like.

Also slower

yeah, i feel like it is slight windshield wiping after such drastic west shifts today.

it could come back west tomorrow for all we know.

[SFLcane]

00z GFS is a bit south of 18z

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS trend for the last 3 runs. Definitely putting on the brakes

[Kat5]

00z GFS is a bit south of 18z

And noticeably East. Watch most the ensemble switch back East.

[NDG]

GFS timewise is now in tune or very close with the Euro which had been trending slower already with its forward speed.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Basically a carbon copy of 18z. No 'notable shift east'

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[Steve]

It pinballs at 48.

[Hurricaneman]

Basically a carbon copy of 18z. No 'notable shift east' https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200801/8a61420e6b4be4e2671561463534198d.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200801/118d40bae663a1f73eefb5dc88da2df6.jpg

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Looks about 10miles east this run

[Steve]

Off St. Augustine 1005mb (low res) at 8am Monday

[HurricaneEnzo]

If you wanna split hairs ok 10 miles is not gonna make any difference in impact

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[Steve]

Plot thickens on GFS at 72 hours/8pm Monday. Might not hit South Carolina. Maybe it comes up a bit more north, IDK.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Plot thickens on GFS at 72 hours/8pm Monday. Might not hit South Carolina. Maybe it comes up a bit more north, IDK.

Yep now it is getting interesting. Varies more at 78 looks like NC landfall maybe

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[Steve]

Making a run for North Myrtle Beach, Little River. Interestingly, GFS also doesn't strengthen this coming up. But it doesn't landfall there. 84 hours close to Wilmington. Might go in, might not.

[Steejo91]

If you wanna split hairs ok 10 miles is not gonna make any difference in impact

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Actually 10 miles makes quite a bit of difference in terms of if the Eyewall makes it ashore or not. So yes, 10 miles does matter.

[fci]

If you wanna split hairs ok 10 miles is not gonna make any difference in impact

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Long term, 10 miles doesn’t mean much but if you are in South Florida that 10 miles can be the difference between hurricane force winds and tropical storm gusts.

[Steve]

GFS lanfalls in eastern North Carolina on Tuesday afternoon and crosses the Tidewater. It looks like it's coming up at a pretty good speed, but the GFS gets all the big cities in the northeast. It's more party storm up there, but certainly tropical weather is coming from the GFS. Check out MD/NJ/NY

[Steve]

Last post on the GFS is that it could conceivably have multiple landfalls or at least have the inner core at the coast in multiple states before a final US Landfall in Connecticut and Massachusetts. It's close to or at the coast in Florida, SC, NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, ME. That's a lot of states. Again, luckily this isn't going to be a 3+ up that way.

CMC should be next then the hurricane models