ATL: LAURA - Models

[Michele B]

18z GFS hours 93-99:
https://i.imgur.com/rQ4EmLv.gif

933??? SERIOUSLY?!?!?!

Isn't that a bit TOO aggressive?!?!?!

It's the GOM and its high OHC so it's unfortunately believable.

I understand that.

But here's the thing: Are any of the other models (beside HWRF) saying such a thing? Just seems TOO frightening.

I want to hope that's wrong.

[Nederlander]

18z Euro rolling.

Through hour 24 its a 994mb landfall over Cuba. Much stronger than the 12z so far.

Where are you getting the euro run from?

[Michele B]

Talk about windshield wipers.

These models are struggling with the land interaction. I think the main point to take home is the constant bombing out of the storm by virtually every model once in the Gulf. Someone could be in for a rough time.

Exactly. We finally saw the HWRF take it over the DR and Cuba this run, and the result was still another sub 940 cat 4. Something has to be said for the fact that multiple models are seeing an environment in the N. GOM that is conductive for RI once Laura gets there.

Historically, that has always been how GOM does this time of year. It's like bath water out there.

I guess I was hoping Marco was going to disrupt things, upwelling cool water and all...

[shiny-pebble]

933??? SERIOUSLY?!?!?!

Isn't that a bit TOO aggressive?!?!?!

It's the GOM and its high OHC so it's unfortunately believable.

I understand that.

But here's the thing: Are any of the other models (beside HWRF) saying such a thing? Just seems TOO frightening.

I want to hope that's wrong.

Not as extreme as HMON but last GFS run also had a major hurricane

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro rolling.

Through hour 24 its a 994mb landfall over Cuba. Much stronger than the 12z so far.

Where are you getting the euro run from?

www.Weathermodels.com

[Kingarabian]

933??? SERIOUSLY?!?!?!

Isn't that a bit TOO aggressive?!?!?!

It's the GOM and its high OHC so it's unfortunately believable.

I understand that.

But here's the thing: Are any of the other models (beside HWRF) saying such a thing? Just seems TOO frightening.

I want to hope that's wrong.

18z GFS had a cat.3. HWRF and HMON are more precise in intensity in certain occasions compared to the global models.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro rolling.

Through hour 24 its a 994mb landfall over Cuba. Much stronger than the 12z so far. Relatively same track with about the same amount of land interaction through 36 hours.

Hour 48 it's emerging into the GOM @ 995mb. Let's see what it does.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro rolling.

Through hour 24 its a 994mb landfall over Cuba. Much stronger than the 12z so far. Relatively same track with about the same amount of land interaction through 36 hours.

Hour 48 it's emerging into the GOM @ 995mb. Let's see what it does.

Get's down to 981mb @ hour 66 and then weakens to 995mb by hour 75.

[CyclonicFury]

I find it interesting how the Euro weakens Laura in the GoM. Quite the contrast from the GFS and hurricane models.

[Kingarabian]

I find it interesting how the Euro weakens Laura in the GoM. Quite the contrast from the GFS and hurricane models.

This is likely a bad run. It has finally lined up well in intensity and track with the GFS and HWRF through the first 66 hours with a 981mb pressure. Then weakens it all of a sudden and makes it a 999mb TS landfall hour 90 over Eastern-LA. This model has been inconsistent with Laura to the say the least.

[Blown Away]

18z HMON hour 114 landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/WV4MnKn.png

Ignore the 111kt wind estimate. This would be a high end cat.4 landfall with that pressure.

That pretty much would put me right in the eastern eyewall. No thanks! Not liking this 18z trend in the models.

Fortunately it’s the HMON, it’s all over the place.

[cheezyWXguy]

I find it interesting how the Euro weakens Laura in the GoM. Quite the contrast from the GFS and hurricane models.

Is there any shear its forecasting from a source the other models are not picking up on? The rest show near ideal conditions, and with the euro depicting Laura at 995mb upon gulf entry, it doesn't seem like it forecasts much core disruption.

[stormlover2013]

18z HMON hour 114 landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/WV4MnKn.png

Ignore the 111kt wind estimate. This would be a high end cat.4 landfall with that pressure.

That pretty much would put me right in the eastern eyewall. No thanks! Not liking this 18z trend in the models.

Fortunately it’s the HMON, it’s all over the place.

They are all over the place

[Kingarabian]

I find it interesting how the Euro weakens Laura in the GoM. Quite the contrast from the GFS and hurricane models.

Is there any shear its forecasting from a source the other models are not picking up on? The rest show near ideal conditions, and with the euro depicting Laura at 995mb upon gulf entry, it doesn't seem like it forecasts much core disruption.

t even deepens it down to 981mb. 15kts of shear it looks like. But there is an anti-cyclone near. So that shear shouldn't bother it that much especially since its a well intact upon emerging into the GOM.

[bella_may]

Not that anyone cares about the NAVGEM but it takes Laura into Pensacola as a tropical storm

[Nederlander]

I find it interesting how the Euro weakens Laura in the GoM. Quite the contrast from the GFS and hurricane models.

Is there any shear its forecasting from a source the other models are not picking up on? The rest show near ideal conditions, and with the euro depicting Laura at 995mb upon gulf entry, it doesn't seem like it forecasts much core disruption.

Yeah, I am curious what the stronger ensemble members show.

[Keldeo1997]

I find it interesting how the Euro weakens Laura in the GoM. Quite the contrast from the GFS and hurricane models.

Is there any shear its forecasting from a source the other models are not picking up on? The rest show near ideal conditions, and with the euro depicting Laura at 995mb upon gulf entry, it doesn't seem like it forecasts much core disruption.

t even deepens it down to 981mb. 15kts of shear it looks like. But there is an anti-cyclone near. So that shear shouldn't bother it that much especially since its a well intact upon emerging into the GOM.

NHC said with Marco that Model's tend to have a High shear Bias. This could be the case with Laura to.

[cp79]

Not that anyone cares about the NAVGEM but it takes Laura into Pensacola as a tropical storm

Strange. The trend tonight seems be strengthening and west and they do the opposite.

Although the weakening I can see more given the possible track over the GA. A long stretch over that and you can stick a fork in this thing. Not saying it’s gonna do that but if it were to.

[stormlover2013]

Won’t be a trend till it gets in gom

[gfsperpendicular]

Maybe a little off-topic, but thanks guys