ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Next recon flight is scheduled to take off in 3 hours.

It'll be onshore or have started weakening from land interaction by that point. We're not getting any passes from the strongest quad during peak it seems.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking the upcoming intermediate advisory will be the last shot for the upgrade. Land interaction will likely start taking a toll on Eta in a few hours.

[ElectricStorm]

Raw Ts down a bit but adjusted and final T continue to rise

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2020 Time : 045018 UTC
Lat : 14:01:12 N Lon : 82:46:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 931.2mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.2 8.1

[mrbagyo]

WPAC has ZERO recon & they get 190 mph storms! Why does the Atlantic keep having even more problems with Recon & the intensity is lower than what could really happen?

The Jtwc is more liberal and uses only satellite estimates. The nhc has a higher bar! If this was in the western Pacific it would be a 155 knot cat5.

JTWC's pretty conservative also with TC's with CDG (-80C) ring - more often than not they'll just estimate it between 130 to 140 knots
155+ is mostly reserved by JT for TC's with very warm eye and persistent cold convective ring

[bob rulz]

I feel like those SFMR readings are just enough for an upgrade. That combined with the rapid continuing pressure drops that were happening when the plane was in there, and the fact that the NW quadrant - which wasn't sampled - could be the strongest, not to mention the incredible satellite presentation, makes me think the NHC will go 140 knots at the intermediate, especially if the satellite presentation continues to improve. But they are the experts.

[Iceresistance]

Still no sign of EWRC

[TyphoonNara]

WPAC has ZERO recon & they get 190 mph storms! Why does the Atlantic keep having even more problems with Recon & the intensity is lower than what could really happen?

The Jtwc is more liberal and uses only satellite estimates. The nhc has a higher bar! If this was in the western Pacific it would be a 155 knot cat5.

To be very honest JTWC is very inconsistent with intensity estimates. If this happens in the Western Pacific, JTWC will be giving the storm 135/140 knots due to constraints.

Look what happened to Hagibis last year. Despite having +20°C eyes and -82°C cloud tops (a much higher delta than Eta), JTWC gave the storm 140 knots operationally. It is fortunate they upgraded the storm to 160 knots post-season, though.

[Ubuntwo]

Still no sign of EWRC

Huh? they said an ERC could've begun at 10:

The radar data also suggest that concentric eyewalls may be forming,
which would be an indication of the onset of an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) and a capping of Eta's intensity and also an end to the
rapid intensification cycle of the past 36 hours.

[ClarCari]

Still no sign of EWRC

Huh? they said an ERC could've begun at 10:

The radar data also suggest that concentric eyewalls may be forming,
which would be an indication of the onset of an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) and a capping of Eta's intensity and also an end to the
rapid intensification cycle of the past 36 hours.

For caution as EWRC is quite unpredictable.

[Hayabusa]

Wow I don't really watch hurricanes unless they are really strong and this one got raw 8s and above on multiple fixes
If this was in the WPAC the highest delta here would be probably give about a raw of 7.7.

2020NOV03 005017 6.2 942.1 119.8 6.2 6.3 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -6.22 -80.40 EYE 7 IR 20.0 14.22 82.52 ARCHER GOES16 18.7
2020NOV03 012017 6.3 940.0 122.2 6.3 6.4 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -9.20 -81.43 EYE 7 IR 20.0 14.19 82.54 ARCHER GOES16 18.7
2020NOV03 015017 6.3 940.0 122.2 6.3 6.3 8.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -9.98 -81.80 EYE 7 IR 20.0 14.17 82.56 ARCHER GOES16 18.7
2020NOV03 022017 6.3 940.1 122.2 6.3 6.3 8.4 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 3.37 -81.52 EYE 7 IR 20.0 14.12 82.60 ARCHER GOES16 18.6
2020NOV03 025017 6.3 940.1 122.2 6.3 6.5 8.4 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.53 -81.37 EYE 8 IR 20.0 14.08 82.61 ARCHER GOES16 18.6
2020NOV03 032017 6.4 938.0 124.6 6.4 6.7 8.4 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 7.28 -81.52 EYE 8 IR 20.0 14.08 82.65 ARCHER GOES16 18.6
2020NOV03 035017 6.4 938.0 124.6 6.4 6.9 8.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 3.76 -81.05 EYE 8 IR 20.0 14.09 82.68 ARCHER GOES16 18.6
2020NOV03 042017 6.6 933.5 129.6 6.6 7.1 8.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 9.55 -80.20 EYE 8 IR 20.0 14.09 82.71 ARCHER GOES16 18.7
2020NOV03 045018 6.7 931.2 132.2 6.7 7.2 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 5.22 -79.46 EYE 7 IR 20.0 14.02 82.77 ARCHER GOES16 18.6

[ClarCari]

Final T# is 6.9 now. Raw T# is lowering but they are not starting to meet.

[ElectricStorm]

Final T# is 6.9 now. Raw T# is lowering but they are not starting to meet.

I hope they take a look at that before they release the advisory. Adjusted T is up to 7.3 as well.

[TyphoonNara]

Wow I don't really watch hurricanes unless they are really strong and this one got raw 8s and above on multiple fixes
If this was in the WPAC the highest delta here would be probably give about a raw of 7.7.

2020NOV03 005017 6.2 942.1 119.8 6.2 6.3 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -6.22 -80.40 EYE 7 IR 20.0 14.22 82.52 ARCHER GOES16 18.7
2020NOV03 012017 6.3 940.0 122.2 6.3 6.4 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -9.20 -81.43 EYE 7 IR 20.0 14.19 82.54 ARCHER GOES16 18.7
2020NOV03 015017 6.3 940.0 122.2 6.3 6.3 8.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -9.98 -81.80 EYE 7 IR 20.0 14.17 82.56 ARCHER GOES16 18.7
2020NOV03 022017 6.3 940.1 122.2 6.3 6.3 8.4 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 3.37 -81.52 EYE 7 IR 20.0 14.12 82.60 ARCHER GOES16 18.6
2020NOV03 025017 6.3 940.1 122.2 6.3 6.5 8.4 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.53 -81.37 EYE 8 IR 20.0 14.08 82.61 ARCHER GOES16 18.6
2020NOV03 032017 6.4 938.0 124.6 6.4 6.7 8.4 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 7.28 -81.52 EYE 8 IR 20.0 14.08 82.65 ARCHER GOES16 18.6
2020NOV03 035017 6.4 938.0 124.6 6.4 6.9 8.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 3.76 -81.05 EYE 8 IR 20.0 14.09 82.68 ARCHER GOES16 18.6
2020NOV03 042017 6.6 933.5 129.6 6.6 7.1 8.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 9.55 -80.20 EYE 8 IR 20.0 14.09 82.71 ARCHER GOES16 18.7
2020NOV03 045018 6.7 931.2 132.2 6.7 7.2 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 5.22 -79.46 EYE 7 IR 20.0 14.02 82.77 ARCHER GOES16 18.6

I think ADT have different algorithms for storms in the Eastern and Western hemisphere. I remember seeing storms passing the international date line and then its ADT immediately drops by 0.5. This is questionable in my opinion though.

A rawT# of 7.7 if Eta is in WPac seems about to be right.

[Nancy Smar]

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 82.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

[ElectricStorm]

Post- season it is


BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA NEARING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 82.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

[ElectricStorm]

Post- season it is


BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA NEARING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 82.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

Pasch never upgrades lol

[ClarCari]

Still forecasted as a Cat.5 before landfall. And it’s still slowing down. Next recon, should it pan out, could still be able to find a strong system offshore.

[Ryxn]

What is the likelihood Eta will be upgraded to Category 5 pre-Honduras landfall for post-season analysis?

Edit: Still has time. Here's to 4 AM EST.

[ElectricStorm]

Still forecasted as a Cat.5 before landfall. And it’s still slowing down. Next recon, should it pan out, could still be able to find a strong system offshore.

Yeah we'll see. Cat 5 or not still an awful situation down there.

[Cunxi Huang]

Concentric eyewalls are visible on radar imagery.