ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

It's an extremely lopsided hurricane on the precipitation front. Sally barely has a backside at the moment.

[FLpanhandle91]

Less than an hour apart folks. Things change and evolve rapidly. She is clearly looking better by the minute on radar.

[GCANE]

Eyewall appears to be closed on radar

[cfisher]

The second everyone in here gets bearish it forms an eye lol

[BensonTCwatcher]

This seems pretty simple, "could be" doesn't mean is forecast to be.

I took could be as “forecasted to be”. I just wasn’t sure if I missed an update calling for a major.

NHC is calling for 110 mph at landfall so it most definitely could get to 115

HWRF was @ 110 mph Saturday. Of course the track is shifting east but the storm depiction has been really very good this year and been on the money with Laura and Sally. Many peeps have been naysayers. The improvements they made on the data feeds seem to be paying off.

[tiger_deF]

Sally, if you are here we are all very sorry we doubted you. Feel free to get weaker

[GCANE]

Warm core is likely heating up and stacking on top of the cold pool.
Could begin another round of intensification, now in the more classical sense.

[wxman57]

:froze:

Recon indicates winds may be 70 kts, possibly 75 kts, though recon found only 73 kts with 61 kt FL wind. Don't see any evidence of 85 kts. Eye 6nm across - watch for ERC tonight with weakening during the process. Upwelling of cooler water along with increasing wind shear could cause weakening at landfall. Note that consensus model is now into Alabama coast in western Mobile Bay.

Wow. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Wxman so Bearish on a storm before. I hope he’s right!!!!

I know that he predicts 75 to 85mph at landfall. I hope he’s right about that as well...

Weakening may mean to 75-85 kts at landfall, not a TS. Landfall may be Mobile to Pensacola.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1305665835068018690

[cfisher]

Needs to rotate this tower upshear.

[GCANE]

Eyewall is looking better by the minute.
That tower on the CoC did the trick.

[PavelGaborik10]

Difficult to undergo a full blown EWRC when she's never had a full eye wall to begin with.

If that small eye manages to finally collapse things will get kicking again.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Get ready for the next round of posts about the closed eyeball. Finally got enough of a burst on SW side to build it. Will be open SE side but looks to closing off the dry slot legitimately now.

[eastcoastFL]

The second everyone in here gets bearish it forms an eye lol

Thats pretty typical lol. Maybe if we say she looks great it’ll fizzle out

[cfisher]

Eyewall is looking better by the minute.
That tower on the CoC did the trick.

If it can rotate all the way around..

[fci]

The sky here in Mobile right now is beautiful. That strange glow I can always remember before a storm. Frederic looked the exact same way.

Please be careful and I hope all your preparations are done!
Seems like your area is becoming more and more likely to be the landing point.

[wxman57]

Recon still cannot find any wind remotely close to 100 mph. Barely finding 75 mph. Maybe they are missing the stronger winds, or maybe it just isn't a 100 mph storm now.

[us89]

Get ready for the next round of posts about the closed eyeball.

Just wait till it blinks.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Get ready for the next round of posts about the closed eyeball.

Just wait till it blinks.

Lol. Whoops on the iPad...spelling

[wxman57]

Eyewall is looking better by the minute.
That tower on the CoC did the trick.

It's possible that decreasing squalls north of the eye are allowing deeper penetration (less attenunation) of the radar beam, revealing a southern eyewall. Curious that the plane isn't finding very strong wind. I think chances are increasing of a landfall east of Mobile Bay.