ATL: LAURA - Models

[catskillfire51]

Icon takes Laura into Lousiana side of the LA/ Texas border 959mb

[Nederlander]

18z GFS and Euro ensembles

Stronger solutions favor a westward track, weaker favor eastern

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hours 00-24:

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hours 24-48:

[Fancy1001]

The GFS so far is coming in a bit weaker but more Southwest, which should give it more time to strengthen.

[bella_may]

Gfs is out to lunch lol

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hours 48-72:

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is out to lunch lol

How?

[ConvergenceZone]

Is there any shear its forecasting from a source the other models are not picking up on? The rest show near ideal conditions, and with the euro depicting Laura at 995mb upon gulf entry, it doesn't seem like it forecasts much core disruption.

t even deepens it down to 981mb. 15kts of shear it looks like. But there is an anti-cyclone near. So that shear shouldn't bother it that much especially since its a well intact upon emerging into the GOM.

The 12Z Euro also showed 999MB at landfall so that is two runs in a row. The GFS and GEFS ensembles are nowhere near as strong as the hurricane models though the GFS ensembles are a little stronger than the 12Z. My point is not to downplay the situation but if I lived in the northern Gulf I would at least be cautiously optimistic there are good models showing a modest cyclone that are not bombing it out into a major:

https://i.postimg.cc/qqYcHpFc/13-L-gefs-18z.png

Why should we trust models such as GFS an EURO who never formed Laura in the first place?

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 72 + trend:

[Highteeld]

GFS trending way further south at hour 78 than the last 2 runs

[WilmingtonSandbar]

GFS trending way further south at hour 78 than the last 2 runs

And way weaker, but picking up strength quickly to hit Texas.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 84:

[Highteeld]

GFS trending way further south at hour 78 than the last 2 runs

And way weaker

Explodes next few frames though

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS trending way further south at hour 78 than the last 2 runs

And way weaker

yeah, but this track gives it more time to strengthen, so that cancels out quickly.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 90, deepening quickly:

[stormlover2013]

Cat 3 headed to Galveston or la/tax border

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Weaker in the short term due to more land interaction, but shifts west in the Gulf giving it more time over water. End result will be the same as the 18z as far as intensity goes.

[Nederlander]

Deepening to major on approach to upper TX coast

[BigB0882]

GFS making the swing West. Texas back in play?