ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Is recon even going out tonight? Still nothing on Tropical Tidbits.

[BobHarlem]

Watch this outrun the convection and naked swirl appear.

[toad strangler]

This could be a long weekend for all of us. Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

That’s a good question? Not even sure about the TS watch if based on the models 35-40 all you’ll get inland. Not sure what the thinking is at the NHC maybe at 11pm. Huge wind field though we will be on the weak side. I remember with Mathew a power storm just a few miles offshore and not even a breeze across mainland sfl.

Matthew was as quiet as a church mouse by me even though he was JUUUUUST off the coast. That right there tells all you need to know about missing a core of even a major on the western side. Not gonna see much of anything.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This could be a long weekend for all of us. Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

That’s a good question? Not even sure about the TS watch if based on the models 35-40 all you’ll get inland. Not sure what the thinking is at the NHC maybe at 11pm. Huge wind field though we will be on the weak side. I remember with Mathew a power storm just a few miles offshore and not even a breeze across mainland sfl.

Matthew was as quiet as a church mouse by me even though he was JUUUUUST off the coast. That right there tells all you need to know about missing a core of even a major on the western side. Not gonna see much of anything.

Got pretty hairy for us in SE NC. Few roofs blew off gas stations and roofs on homes damaged from falling trees.

[Hd444]

Watch this outrun the convection and naked swirl appear.

Nah. Top good outflow

[CronkPSU]

I've been at this game a long time. 95% of these storms from this approach do turn and with so much model consensus, I have little doubt in a turn.

that has been the pattern since I have moved down here in 99...Irma was an exception tho and by a whole lot!

[SFLcane]

This could be a long weekend for all of us. Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

That’s a good question? Not even sure about the TS watch if based on the models 35-40 all you’ll get inland. Not sure what the thinking is at the NHC maybe at 11pm. Huge wind field though we will be on the weak side. I remember with Mathew a power storm just a few miles offshore and not even a breeze across mainland sfl.

Matthew was as quiet as a church mouse by me even though he was JUUUUUST off the coast. That right there tells all you need to know about missing a core of even a major on the western side. Not gonna see much of anything.

Not sure it currently qualifies for TS watch if these winds will not reach the mainland.

[chaser1]

This could be a long weekend for all of us. Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

T.S. Watches were the prudent call. In the unlikely event this moves farther west then expected by tomm. morning, there would still be ample time to upgrade those watches to T.S. or Hurricane Warnings.

[toad strangler]

That’s a good question? Not even sure about the TS watch if based on the models 35-40 all you’ll get inland. Not sure what the thinking is at the NHC maybe at 11pm. Huge wind field though we will be on the weak side. I remember with Mathew a power storm just a few miles offshore and not even a breeze across mainland sfl.

Matthew was as quiet as a church mouse by me even though he was JUUUUUST off the coast. That right there tells all you need to know about missing a core of even a major on the western side. Not gonna see much of anything.

Got pretty hairy for us in SE NC. Few roofs blew off gas stations and roofs on homes damaged from falling trees.

Matthew was a Cat 1 by you? By then wind field expands, etc but a major usually has a tight core and Matthew's core was pretty small down by my area. So that true bad weather stayed off the coast, even as close as he was. Not one boat was ousted from any slip up and down the coast. Anyway, didn't mean to derail, just commenting on the west side.

[DestinHurricane]

This could be a long weekend for all of us. Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

That’s a good question? Not even sure about the TS watch if based on the models 35-40 all you’ll get inland. Not sure what the thinking is at the NHC maybe at 11pm. Huge wind field though we will be on the weak side. I remember with Mathew a power storm just a few miles offshore and not even a breeze across mainland sfl.

Matthew was as quiet as a church mouse by me even though he was JUUUUUST off the coast. That right there tells all you need to know about missing a core of even a major on the western side. Not gonna see much of anything.

I lived East of Destin, FL when Michael came through. I was 30 miles west of eye and we didn’t even lose power. I remember looking down the coast just before it made landfall, looking at the very dark clouds which were the eyewall begin to terrorize areas to my East. 30 miles can make all the difference, even in a major. We got ZERO damage just 30 miles west. Crazy.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Matthew was as quiet as a church mouse by me even though he was JUUUUUST off the coast. That right there tells all you need to know about missing a core of even a major on the western side. Not gonna see much of anything.

Got pretty hairy for us in SE NC. Few roofs blew off gas stations and roofs on homes damaged from falling trees.

Matthew was a Cat 1 by you? By then wind field expands, etc but a major usually has a tight core and Matthew was pretty small down by my area. So that true bad weather stayed off the coast, even as close as he was. Not one boat was ousted from any slip up and down the coast. Anyway, didn't mean to derail, just commenting on the west side.

I was just making a note about the effects in my area at the time. It exceeded my expectations and it was actually a pretty scary night. Could have been much worse. Hope the storm misses all of us by a long ways and we all get sunny skies.

[jlauderdal]

That’s a good question? Not even sure about the TS watch if based on the models 35-40 all you’ll get inland. Not sure what the thinking is at the NHC maybe at 11pm. Huge wind field though we will be on the weak side. I remember with Mathew a power storm just a few miles offshore and not even a breeze across mainland sfl.

Matthew was as quiet as a church mouse by me even though he was JUUUUUST off the coast. That right there tells all you need to know about missing a core of even a major on the western side. Not gonna see much of anything.

Not sure it currently qualifies for TS watch if these winds will not reach the mainland.

Thats why its a watch...ts winds possible

[Evil Jeremy]

That’s a good question? Not even sure about the TS watch if based on the models 35-40 all you’ll get inland. Not sure what the thinking is at the NHC maybe at 11pm. Huge wind field though we will be on the weak side. I remember with Mathew a power storm just a few miles offshore and not even a breeze across mainland sfl.

Matthew was as quiet as a church mouse by me even though he was JUUUUUST off the coast. That right there tells all you need to know about missing a core of even a major on the western side. Not gonna see much of anything.

Not sure it currently qualifies for TS watch if these winds will not reach the mainland.

Well, that's why it's a watch and not a warning.

[Visioen]

The west to east moving clouds over Hispaniola are interesting.

[Weatherboy1]

Sure looks on last few visible satellite frames, plus IR, that banding is wrapping around a center about to move off the coast around 71.5-72W. Also appears that this new center has been moving steadily just N of W for a few hours (even if it was an MLC for a while and likely now a new LLC). Again, my opinion

[Vdogg]

That’s a good question? Not even sure about the TS watch if based on the models 35-40 all you’ll get inland. Not sure what the thinking is at the NHC maybe at 11pm. Huge wind field though we will be on the weak side. I remember with Mathew a power storm just a few miles offshore and not even a breeze across mainland sfl.

Matthew was as quiet as a church mouse by me even though he was JUUUUUST off the coast. That right there tells all you need to know about missing a core of even a major on the western side. Not gonna see much of anything.

Got pretty hairy for us in SE NC. Few roofs blew off gas stations and roofs on homes damaged from falling trees.

Matthew was bad for us in VB too. Hurricane force gusts and a 500 year flood from all the rain.

[Recurve]

Just from experience in Florida, I'd say (without any expert cred) that Isaias is likely to have little effect on Florida, given the trend -- IF it continues.
Counting on the trough doing its job. We see this track and conditions so many times. And, west side of a TS/Cat1 is usually pretty open.

I agree with the comment about effects away from the eyewall even of a major hurricane. My house escaped Andrew by about 25 miles, Irma by about the same with no effects.

The actual worse effects I've seen were a direct hit by Mitch at TS intensity, spawning tornadoes over the Keys. East sides of tropical storms can be hell, the west is best.

[Visioen]

Sure looks on last few visible satellite frames, plus IR, that banding is wrapping around a center about to move off the coast around 71.5-72W. Also appears that this new center has been moving steadily just N of W for a few hours (even if it was an MLC for a while and likely now a new LLC). Again, my opinion

I'm not knowledgeable enough to claim it's a new LLC, but definitely some kind of organisation is going on.

[emeraldislenc]

Parts of Florida did not escape Andrew!

[psyclone]

Watches need to be reserved for a meaningful risk or they risk becoming meaningless. Storm fatigue and resultant complacency are very real dangerous side effects of playing fast and loose with these products. that is even more true in an era of social media hype squads. Operate in probabilities rather than possibilities. As of now the TS watches look good. they will look really good if the track adjusts back to the west.