ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SFLcane]

With a landfall as the 12z gfs suggests I just can’t see how palm beach and Broward county doesn’t see TS winds.

[NDG]

Close up look at the 12z GFS for FL.

[CFLHurricane]

Close up look at the 12z GFS for FL.

https://i.imgur.com/ouqghS9.gif

If the Palm Bay/ Melbourne shield Can block Dorian and Matthew, it can certainly handle this chump of a storm.

[Jr0d]

Close up look at the 12z GFS for FL.

https://i.imgur.com/ouqghS9.gif

Interesting how it deepens a little over Brevard country. From what I have seen on the shear maps, Central Florida might be a bit more favorable of an environment.

We are really splitting hairs right now. A little wobble either way can make a huge difference.

It is interesting that a few of the models showed the current collapse of convection followed by another burst later tonight.

[toad strangler]

12z CMC brings this sloppy mess right into S FL where John Morales is planning a picnic.

[gatorcane]

JMA takes this to Miami before turning north:

[gatorcane]

With a landfall as the 12z gfs suggests I just can’t see how palm beach and Broward county doesn’t see TS winds.

Notice how the GFS turns the storm WNW over the Gulf Stream later tonight between hours 12-18. Then at the last second turns NNW as it stair steps. I expect a moment later this evening, tonight as convection should be blowing up and it heading towards the coast.

[Canelaw99]

JMA takes this to Miami before turning

Looking at the path it seems to be on now, this seems strangely plausible to me. Going to be an interesting day....

[caneseddy]

HWRF is more slower and a bit more south and west and intensifying over the Gulf Stream

[Blown Away]

Anyone have the 06z Euro?

[HurricaneEnzo]

JMA takes this to Miami before turning

Looking at the path it seems to be on now, this seems strangely plausible to me. Going to be an interesting day....

Was about to say this. Not saying it will happen but wouldn't surprise me if it did at this point. Been moving far more West than North for a while. Still is showing no signs of an impending Northerly turn.

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[gatorcane]

HWRF is more slower and a bit more south and west and intensifying over the Gulf Stream

Big shift SW here (considering the timeframe) heading WNW:

Just like the GFS turns it WNW over the Gulf Steam albeit stair-stepping.

[gatorcane]

Turns NNW at the last second:

[caneseddy]

Turns NNW at the last second:

https://i.postimg.cc/k4QrGQVB/hwrf-z850-vort-09-L-7.png

Looks like half/half landfall on the Space Coast

[gatorcane]

The HWRF is already a bit too far to the right looking at the storm which is moving more west near the western point of northern Abaco Island.

[SFLcane]

Still big shift south HWRF...

[toad strangler]

12z HWRF starts moving inland right at my latitude in Port Saint Lucie and bounces on and off the coast from there north.

[Blown Away]

Still big shift south HWRF...

Also shows a more moist environment than previous runs which may keep Isaias as a Hurricane.

[gatorcane]

Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

[HurricaneEnzo]

HWRF has been pretty right biased so if its still the case this could potentially run through most of the peninsula. Probably low probability but you never know

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