ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Tower pulse rate is increasing as well.

[PavelGaborik10]

Closest I can re-call seeing her in regards to finally managing to close her eyewall.

[tomatkins]

If you live in the path of Sally and will get the bulk of this rain and surge and live within 50 miles of the coast be prepared if you are not living on the high parts of your area. I know it seems strange but Harvey in SETX flooded from Western Lousiana to Houston from 10 miles north of IH-10 to the coast with no storm surge. Along with places near major creeks as far as 65 miles inland flooding many people. Do not under estimate the rainfall with this.
For Harvey no one mentioned anything about 40" to 60" of rain. Take what they are forecasting with a grain of salt and some areas could get hit very badly with this storm stalling. Not trying to cause panic but it seems theres not enough emphasis put on the amount of rain and the consequences of that when these storms stall.

Weirdly, models WERE predicting 40+ inches for Harvey several days in adcance - although I think most forecasters would have not wanted to issue a prediction of that amount.

[Keldeo1997]

Pinhole is gone. Recon reports Eye has grown to 14nm. Open SE

[GCANE]

Wind speeds going up on the oil platform

[Blown Away]

Cloud tops warming a bit... Given the proximity to land and churning over the same shallower waters for @36hrs... Its just my amateur opinion only, I’d be surprised if Sally can maintain 100 mph status before landfall... Again, JMHO...

[cheezyWXguy]

One major indicator to significant strengthening I am not seeing as of yet is the hot towers rotating around the eye. Still only a periodic bursting pattern. If we get another major burst like we saw this morning, it could set that in motion, but until then, I wouldnt expect to see a quick jump in strength yet

[GCANE]

95% RH in the eye.
Good chance EWRC upcoming.

[edu2703]

Pinhole is gone. Recon reports Eye has grown to 14nm. Open SE

Matches with radar presentation

[setxweathergal64]

If you live in the path of Sally and will get the bulk of this rain and surge and live within 50 miles of the coast be prepared if you are not living on the high parts of your area. I know it seems strange but Harvey in SETX flooded from Western Lousiana to Houston from 10 miles north of IH-10 to the coast with no storm surge. Along with places near major creeks as far as 65 miles inland flooding many people. Do not under estimate the rainfall with this.
For Harvey no one mentioned anything about 40" to 60" of rain. Take what they are forecasting with a grain of salt and some areas could get hit very badly with this storm stalling. Not trying to cause panic but it seems theres not enough emphasis put on the amount of rain and the consequences of that when these storms stall.

I will never forget. At least I know that my house will withstand 50+ inches of rain. My moms, not so much. She lost her home to 7 feet of water. 40+ years in the same house. Never had seen anything like it. We live a tiny bit north of Beaumont.

[3090]

Cloud tops warming a bit... Given the proximity to land and churning over the same shallower waters for @36hrs... Its just my amateur opinion only, I’d be surprised if Sally can maintain 100 mph status before landfall... Again, JMHO...

Stalling out offshore for an extended period of time could actually be a blessing in disguise.

[cheezyWXguy]

95% RH in the eye.
Good chance EWRC upcoming.


https://i.imgur.com/Fkw7g1h.png

I don’t see any structural evidence of an eye cycle right now on radar. Would this increase in humidity not just be due to the convective burst?

[GCANE]

One major indicator to significant strengthening I am not seeing as of yet is the hot towers rotating around the eye. Still only a periodic bursting pattern. If we get another major burst like we saw this morning, it could set that in motion, but until then, I wouldnt expect to see a quick jump in strength yet

I think the last tower just did it.
Getting an eye feature on IR now.
Eye just needs to dry out now.

[nutkin517]

If you live in the path of Sally and will get the bulk of this rain and surge and live within 50 miles of the coast be prepared if you are not living on the high parts of your area. I know it seems strange but Harvey in SETX flooded from Western Lousiana to Houston from 10 miles north of IH-10 to the coast with no storm surge. Along with places near major creeks as far as 65 miles inland flooding many people. Do not under estimate the rainfall with this.
For Harvey no one mentioned anything about 40" to 60" of rain. Take what they are forecasting with a grain of salt and some areas could get hit very badly with this storm stalling. Not trying to cause panic but it seems theres not enough emphasis put on the amount of rain and the consequences of that when these storms stall.

I will never forget. At least I know that my house will withstand 50+ inches of rain. My moms, not so much. She lost her home to 7 feet of water. 40+ years in the same house. Never had seen anything like it. We live a tiny bit north of Beaumont.

I thought the same. I am in Old Town Beaumont. Harvey never even filled up my ditch with water. But Imelda had water at my back door. Had it rained another hour, it would have been in my house. But Beaumont got 30+ inches overnight in Imelda and with Harvey, it was more spread out.

[GCANE]

95% RH in the eye.
Good chance EWRC upcoming.


https://i.imgur.com/Fkw7g1h.png

I don’t see any structural evidence of an eye cycle right now on radar. Would this increase in humidity not just be due to the convective burst?

Yes, I think so.

[shiny-pebble]

Sort of mixed signals right now IMO. Closing off an eye wall, but warming cloud tops. Some degradation of radar presentation east of the center. Big convective burst though

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[GCANE]

95% RH in the eye.
Good chance EWRC upcoming.


https://i.imgur.com/Fkw7g1h.png

I don’t see any structural evidence of an eye cycle right now on radar. Would this increase in humidity not just be due to the convective burst?

Yes, I think so.

Eye is open to the SE and no moat.
Very likely was the tower.

[cheezyWXguy]

Sort of mixed signals right now IMO. Closing off an eye wall, but warming cloud tops. Some degradation of radar presentation east of the center. Big convective burst though

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If anything, the warming of the surrounding cloud tops may be sign of strengthening, more energy consolidating in the center

[ConvergenceZone]

Cloud tops warming a bit... Given the proximity to land and churning over the same shallower waters for @36hrs... Its just my amateur opinion only, I’d be surprised if Sally can maintain 100 mph status before landfall... Again, JMHO...

Exactly, and that's probably why WXMAN is only going with 85mph. I thought initially he was crazy saying that, but now it makes total sense. Upwelling has done its number on fair number of slow moving storms in the past, and this thing is going to be crawling, especially as it gets closer to the coast, where upwelling really becomes an issue. ....I'm on board on the 85 MPH at landfall as well. I'm going with 80 to 90 mph sometimes tomorrow morning, and then a 10 mph increase or so after that and dropping to 85mph at landfall. I think it's probably closer to 90 MPH right now, but I don't know if the NHC would drop the winds due to its proxmity to land.

Nonetheless Winds were never going to be a huge issue anyway,it's the considerable flooding that this is going to cause. I dread seeing the after pictures, because I have a feeling that flooding is going to be the main story....

[ThetaE]

On radar, the appearance of the eye has drastically improved over the past hour or so and is continuing to improve. I pointed out earlier when Sally was upgraded to a hurricane that it had a very lopsided windfield, with 80kt FL winds on the north side and barely any TS winds on the south side. That's bad for a fast-moving TC,let alone a storm as slow-moving as Sally. Now, while recon hasn't found any winds as strong as earlier, the windfield is far more symmetrical. This sort of symmetrical structure, IMO, is a better predictor of future intensity trends than anything else. We've managed to stay steady in the mid-980s mb while Sally has sorted out its structural problems... I'm worried that's not going to last for much longer.