ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Not looking as good as earlier the last couple of frames. Yep.....it's topped off! Should start a slow decline in strength within the next 3 hours or so....Strong Shear, Dry Air and cool temperatures should do a number on it.... The NHC even said that they were at the top of the intensity guidance, so I won't be surprised if they bring it down a bit from the forecasted 100 mph landfall. but it depends upon how quick the weakening happens. It don't think it will happen too quickly due to the size of the system.

[ElectricStorm]

So max sustained winds are back up to 120mph? So it should start to level off and weaken from here until landfall per nhc. Does anyone think further strengthening is possible?

I still think it could briefly get to Cat 4. NHC says in the disco that it has about 6 more hours before less favorable conditions take over.

I saw that too. I was curious what others thought. Either way I think it’s going to be a very dangerous storm. The only upside is it shouldn’t stall so no 20+ inches of rain but the surge may be a big problem due to the size of delta.

Oh yeah it will be dangerous no matter what category it is. So sad to see the same area get 2 direct, strong, hits within 2 months of each other...

[ElectricStorm]

Not looking as good as earlier the last couple of frames. Yep.....it's topped off! Should start a slow decline in strength within the next 3 hours or so....Strong Shear, Dry Air and cool temperatures should do a number on it.... The NHC even said that they were at the top of the intensity guidance, so I won't be surprised if they bring it down a bit from the forecasted 100 mph landfall. but it depends upon how quick the weakening happens. It don't think it will happen too quickly due to the size of the system.

NHC says it still has 6 more hours so another 5-10 mph of strengthening is possible before it finally starts to weaken

[Beef Stew]

Eyewall is now open to the south (again) per the last VDM. Explains the latest IR presentation.

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

I still think it could briefly get to Cat 4. NHC says in the disco that it has about 6 more hours before less favorable conditions take over.

I saw that too. I was curious what others thought. Either way I think it’s going to be a very dangerous storm. The only upside is it shouldn’t stall so no 20+ inches of rain but the surge may be a big problem due to the size of delta.

Oh yeah it will be dangerous no matter what category it is. So sad to see the same area get 2 direct, strong, hits within 2 months of each other...

It’s nuts. I went through it with frances and Jeanne in 2004 and I just could not believe it was happening again. It wasn’t the danger that made me so angry or worried it was the thought of losing power again! We lost it for 8 days with frances and 20 days with Jeanne. I hope things have advanced since then and our friends in LA don’t have to deal with that.

[rw1984]

Model thread is mostly dead so I thought I would post it here. I thought it was interesting that then 0z GFS and NAM show a slightly slower movement, but essentially move North until landfall. The NE turn happens inland.

[ConvergenceZone]

Not looking as good as earlier the last couple of frames. Yep.....it's topped off! Should start a slow decline in strength within the next 3 hours or so....Strong Shear, Dry Air and cool temperatures should do a number on it.... The NHC even said that they were at the top of the intensity guidance, so I won't be surprised if they bring it down a bit from the forecasted 100 mph landfall. but it depends upon how quick the weakening happens. It don't think it will happen too quickly due to the size of the system.

NHC says it still has 6 more hours so another 5-10 mph of strengthening is possible before it finally starts to weaken

But the satellite presentation has degraded just a bit, not a sign of strengthening.

[eastcoastFL]

Model thread is mostly dead so I thought I would post it here. I thought it was interesting that then 0z GFS and NAM show a slightly slower movement, but essentially move North until landfall. The NE turn happens inland.

Any significant changes in intensity? I see HWRF has about 90kts at landfall

[ElectricStorm]

I saw that too. I was curious what others thought. Either way I think it’s going to be a very dangerous storm. The only upside is it shouldn’t stall so no 20+ inches of rain but the surge may be a big problem due to the size of delta.

Oh yeah it will be dangerous no matter what category it is. So sad to see the same area get 2 direct, strong, hits within 2 months of each other...

It’s nuts. I went through it with frances and Jeanne in 2004 and I just could not believe it was happening again. It wasn’t the danger that made me so angry or worried it was the thought of losing power again! We lost it for 8 days with frances and 20 days with Jeanne. I hope things have advanced since then and our friends in LA don’t have to deal with that.

That's crazy. I was 3 in 2004 so obviously I wasn't tracking back then lol

[eastcoastFL]

Oh yeah it will be dangerous no matter what category it is. So sad to see the same area get 2 direct, strong, hits within 2 months of each other...

It’s nuts. I went through it with frances and Jeanne in 2004 and I just could not believe it was happening again. It wasn’t the danger that made me so angry or worried it was the thought of losing power again! We lost it for 8 days with frances and 20 days with Jeanne. I hope things have advanced since then and our friends in LA don’t have to deal with that.

That's crazy. I was 3 in 2004 so obviously I wasn't tracking back then lol

I was 19 and had just moved to Florida they were my first 2 hurricanes. Kinda freaked me out.

[wkwally]

Delta looks quite impressive. Seems to me that she is a little broader than Laura was. We have been getting some rain here nead IAH through the day from some outer bands. I wounder if we will be getting more of a impact here in the greater Houston area than we did with Laura.

[SconnieCane]

Model thread is mostly dead so I thought I would post it here. I thought it was interesting that then 0z GFS and NAM show a slightly slower movement, but essentially move North until landfall. The NE turn happens inland.

If it moves due north from where it is now it comes in a tick west of where Laura did and possibly does what Laura didn't...push the surge right up Calcasieu Lake into Lake Charles proper, and possibly bring more significant impacts to those far-SE Texas communities like Orange, Port Arthur and Beaumont.

[us89]

Quite a bit of lightning activity in that NW eyewall...strengthening may not be over just yet.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like recon is about to do another center pass

[rw1984]

Model thread is mostly dead so I thought I would post it here. I thought it was interesting that then 0z GFS and NAM show a slightly slower movement, but essentially move North until landfall. The NE turn happens inland.

Any significant changes in intensity? I see HWRF has about 90kts at landfall

I don’t see any real difference intensity wise.

[eastcoastFL]

Pressure seems to be down a little from last pass. Nhc has 955mb at 11pm and recon just had a 949mb reading

[ElectricStorm]

Extrap 949.0mb... Delta's not done yet

[Rail Dawg]

Has Raildawg checked in and said where he’ll be?

Been watching this forum like a hawk lol. It is my go-to source for information on these hurricanes!

Am sitting about 4 hours away from the strike zone here in Houston. Ready to roll lol.

Thanks for checking!!

Chuck

[ElectricStorm]

Has Raildawg checked in and said where he’ll be?

Been watching this forum like a hawk lol. It is my go-to source for information on these hurricanes!

Am sitting about 4 hours away from the strike zone here in Houston. Ready to roll lol.

Thanks for checking!!

Chuck

Good luck out there. Stay safe!