EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[northjaxpro]

Also bummed out that recon is flying in on Saturday vs Friday but they probably thought it had time. If this is to affect Hawaii, effects will begin on the Big Island on Saturday.
https://i.imgur.com/JdCEDub.png

Yeah, what a shame Recon is not going out there until Saturday. Douglas is an absolute beast of a storm right now.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 08, 2020072318, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1365W, 110, 959, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 70, 50, 60, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 08, 2020072318, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1365W, 110, 959, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 30, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 08, 2020072318, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1365W, 110, 959, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 20, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

[SconnieCane]

Reminds me of Lane ‘18 on visible when it approached Cat 5 status. I’m not saying Douglas is a 5, but he’s definitely at least 120 kt.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020ep08/1kmsrvis/2020ep08_1kmsrvis_202007231840.gif

Classic signature of a high-end major (for my purposes, AOA 120kt). NHC really trying to give themselves some post-season homework what with this and the timing of Gonalzo's ramp-up and ramp-down vs. operational.

[OahuWahine]

It's worth mentioning that we've been getting a lot of rain lately so the ground is already saturated. Yesterday we had a downpour that filled my front yard with an inch of water and it's raining again today.

Yeah the weather has been pretty bad here with humidity off the charts. But yesterday's rain had little to do with Douglas lol.

Obviously. What I was saying is that it won't take much to flood if the ground is already saturated.

[Kingarabian]

It's worth mentioning that we've been getting a lot of rain lately so the ground is already saturated. Yesterday we had a downpour that filled my front yard with an inch of water and it's raining again today.

Yeah the weather has been pretty bad here with humidity off the charts. But yesterday's rain had little to do with Douglas lol.

Obviously. What I was saying is that it won't take much to flood if the ground is already saturated.

Yeah. Fortunately this one is fast mover and will be in and out and won't be a sitter like Hurricane Lane 2018.

[Kingarabian]

I haven't been saving enough of these CIMSS shear charts as I should have so the GIF is not smooth, but we can still see the shear being pushed back while Douglas closes in. Similar to what Lane 2018 (and pretty much what major hurricanes are capable of doing).

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020

Visible satellite images show that Douglas is quite a powerful
hurricane. The eye has become more crisp during the day, and
infrared data also show that the eyewall convection has deepened.
The initial wind speed is raised to 110 kt, which matches a blend of
the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Douglas is beginning to move
across the typical cool SST gradient of the eastern Pacific,
implying that the hurricane is probably near its peak intensity.
The cyclone should only slowly weaken on Friday and Saturday due to
cooler waters along the predicted track and the vertical shear
remaining low. As the hurricane approaches the Hawaiian Islands on
Sunday, the SSTs increase but so does the shear. Since the shear
generally dominates over marginally warm waters, a continued
weakening is forecast. However, almost all of the guidance shows
Douglas near hurricane strength as it moves close to Hawaii.
The model guidance remains consistent, and no significant changes
were made to the NHC wind speed prediction.

Douglas continues moving fairly quickly toward the west-northwest. A
large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central Pacific should
continue to steer the hurricane on this general course and speed for
the next couple of days, with some deceleration and a westward turn
by late in the weekend. The guidance is a little more divergent
than the previous cycle, with a subtle northward model trend at
longer range due to a weaker ridge forecast north of Hawaii, though
the ECMWF and its ensembles have shifted a little southward. Given
these mixed signals in the guidance, very little change is made to
the previous NHC track forecast, and the new official forecast lies
on the southwest side of the model envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas
and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.
Watches could be issued on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 14.1N 137.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
96H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[aspen]

How in the hell is this not a Cat 4? No Cat 3 has that good of a core and eye.

[storminabox]

Finally a good looking TC in the NHEM.

https://i.imgur.com/l5r2gGI.gif

We needed this!

[HurricaneEnzo]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Douglas is a monster 110kts just doesn't seem feasible. It is closer to being a Cat 5 than it is a Cat 3

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

Mark Sudduth talks about Douglas in his latest video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZ_1Uj4SppQ

Robert Ballard from the CPHC also has very good points:
https://www.khon2.com/wake-up-2day/cat- ... dL3fydtUFk

[aspen]

Looks like Douglas is still strengthening. 140 kt is not unreasonable if this continues.

[toad strangler]

Awesome looking storm

[supercane4867]

Forward speed makes a difference. Iselle was only moving at 9mph when it entered the CPAC whereas Douglas is currently heading WNW at a whopping 18-20mph. It will have less time to weaken and less chance of wobbling around the topography.

[Highteeld]

Could be in the 125-130 knot range. Knocking on the door of being a T 6.5

[Highteeld]

Delta eye/CDO is exceeding 80* C, likely well into cat 4 at this point.

[Kingarabian]

Forward speed makes a difference. Iselle was only moving at 9mph when it entered the CPAC whereas Douglas is currently heading WNW at a whopping 18-20mph. It will have less time to weaken and less chance of wobbling around the topography.

Yeah absolutely the speed here is pretty rare for this path and is probably the reason why the models keep it a respectable system upon approach. I remember Daniel 2006 weakened substantially despite the calls for a TS landfall due to it slowing down. So that's something to keep an eye out on.

[aspen]

Could be in the 125-130 knot range. Knocking on the door of being a T 6.5

https://i.imgur.com/Ty5svtJ.png

I’m shocked that raw Ts haven’t started spiking yet. A +19 C eye and a nearly full W ring are present, what more does ADT want?

[Kingarabian]

Still strengthening, white ring is almost wrapped around 100%.

[Kingarabian]

Could be in the 125-130 knot range. Knocking on the door of being a T 6.5

https://i.imgur.com/Ty5svtJ.png

I’m shocked that raw Ts haven’t started spiking yet. A +19 C eye and a nearly full W ring are present, what more does ADT want?

Because it's analyzing it like this: