ATL: SALLY - Models

[Keldeo1997]

125MPH almost Cat 4

[Frank P]

18z HWRF is a really bad look for NOLA... in the NE eye wall of a Major Cane

[Kingarabian]

Globals vs the Hurricane models round 2. Let's see who wins this round.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hours 60-78:


Let's hope this doesn't pan out.

[Uptownmeow]

18z HWRF hours 60-78:
https://i.imgur.com/l6oxl3r.gif

Let's hope this doesn't pan out.

Filling up my car in Nola now. Praying it doesn’t.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro is about 50 miles west of the 12z Euro at hour 54. Same intensity.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro landfall maybe NE of Grand Isle

[Nimbus]

WXman57 mentioned the *possibility* of 60 hours over water.
HWRF 18Z run does this by stalling for 12 hours as Sally gets above 28N slowly drifting west just south of New Orleans. Think there might be rain and flood surge issues at 960 mb's?
48 hour warnings had to be issued so probably wise to put NOLA in the cone.

[Kingarabian]

WXman57 mentioned the *possibility* of 60 hours over water.
HWRF 18Z run does this by stalling for 12 hours as Sally gets above 28N slowly drifting west just south of New Orleans. Think there might be rain and flood surge issues at 960 mb's?
48 hour warnings had to be issued so probably wise to put NOLA in the cone.

Yeah the NHC is in a tough spot here. Another situation where there's very little time but a lot of spread.

[SoupBone]

WXman57 mentioned the *possibility* of 60 hours over water.
HWRF 18Z run does this by stalling for 12 hours as Sally gets above 28N slowly drifting west just south of New Orleans. Think there might be rain and flood surge issues at 960 mb's?
48 hour warnings had to be issued so probably wise to put NOLA in the cone.

Yeah the NHC is in a tough spot here. Another situation where there's very little time but a lot of spread.

If it's anything like Laura, the 18Z models swung left, with the 6Z models swinging right. Seems like the same or similar now.

[NDG]

18z Euro, persistent in SE LA landfall like the GFS.

[MississippiWx]

18z Euro, persistent in SE LA landfall like the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/ImzbaXd.gif

Wow, what a flooding event that would be.

[NDG]

18z Euro, persistent in SE LA landfall like the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/ImzbaXd.gif

Wow, what a flooding event that would be.

If the 18z Euro was to be correct.

[Steve]

18z HWRF and 18z NAM 3km really ramp this up at the end of their runs taking it to Cat 3 territory. I haven't seen many alliances with the NAM/HWRF though they have track support from the Euro if not intensity support. NAM and HWRF are both known to go haywire on intensity, but they both show rapid, late organization almost to the point of it doesn't look /all that/ only to intensify into a beast at the end.

Also of note is the NHC has the MS Gulf Coast, AL Gulf Coast and NW FL Gulf Coast in the 10-15" of rain through Thursday. The 15-20" swath is just offshore. Looks like a good 24-30 hours of beating to points east of landfall.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... f#contents

[eastcoastFL]

18z HWRF and 18z NAM 3km really ramp this up at the end of their runs taking it to Cat 3 territory. I haven't seen many alliances with the NAM/HWRF though they have track support from the Euro if not intensity support. NAM and HWRF are both known to go haywire on intensity, but they both show rapid, late organization almost to the point of it doesn't look /all that/ only to intensify into a beast at the end.

Also of note is the NHC has the MS Gulf Coast, AL Gulf Coast and NW FL Gulf Coast in the 10-15" of rain through Thursday. The 15-20" swath is just offshore. Looks like a good 24-30 hours of beating to points east of landfall.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... f#contents

.

The globals seem almost too weak. I think the Euro and HWRF are onto something with the track. Since the HWRF is known to get a little wild with intensity I’d expect the true intensity to end up somewhere between the two with a possible Cat 2 into the NOLA area. Just my amateur opinion. Can’t really count anything out here since the Euro hasn’t been any better than the HWRF this season and the HWRF has actually done pretty well on predicting short term track and intensity so it would be prudent to keep an eye on it each run and see if it sticks to its guns.


Side note: You’re in FL right now aren’t you? So that’s a plus if NOLA maybe facing some flooding.

[Blown Away]

The 00z intensity guidance sure did drop with most models this run barely reaching Cat 1 strength...

[SoupBone]

18z Euro, persistent in SE LA landfall like the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/ImzbaXd.gif

Wow, what a flooding event that would be.

If the 18z Euro was to be correct.

https://i.imgur.com/KuhGQ9f.png

For Harvey, the modeling was too conservative and still showing 30" in some areas. I really hope the Euro doesn't end up verifying.

[Steve]

Yeah eastcoast. I’m driving back to New Orleans tomorrow morning. We grabbed 6 cases of water a few packs of Toilet Paper so I could watch football tomorrow without a lot to do besides gas the cars. I’ll play it by ear and probably stay in New Orleans for Sally, but if it strikes the city hard, we will probably come back here once we can get out. Like Marco/Laura, the lack of known so close to potential impacts makes plan decisions difficult. If I was sure Sally was going to be a major, I’d most likely come back to my house in Pensacola and ride things out here. But I’m feeling - right now - that we have stuff handled for what we will most likely be facing. That’s subject to change. Cool thing is I’m on vacation until Wednesday anyway so I’ll be able to chill without a lot of normal things hanging over my head.

NAM 00z is next.

[Hammy]

The 00z intensity guidance sure did drop with most models this run barely reaching Cat 1 strength...

That's really been the most realistic outcome in the first place.

[eastcoastFL]

The 00z intensity guidance sure did drop with most models this run barely reaching Cat 1 strength...

That's really been the most realistic outcome in the first place.

Is there something forecasted to be in the gulf that would inhibit intensity ? I know yesterday they were expecting some shear in the N. GOM in a few days, is that still the case?