ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

Except for Marco, which was sheared to death by Laura, pretty much every storm has intensified up to landfall this year. I'd bet against the house too with a hurricane landfall.

Actually Laura started weakening in its final approach to landfall, or at least stop strengthening during its final approach. If it had continued to strengthen up to landfall it would have been a category five at landfall, though it still could have been and we have to wait for postseason analysis to see.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on the Tropics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsdnzhHMOc8

[TheStormExpert]

I’m getting Debby 2012 vibes with this one. Slow moving and hard to predict.

[bohai]

Was living in Mobile, AL when Elena was making a beeline toward us ala Frederick from 79. She turned to the ENE and moved away toward Cedar Key, FL. It was Labor Day weekend. We headed to north Alabama to visit relatives because the coast was clear. On Monday we started hearing about flash flood watches in south Alabama. Elena had turned around and started heading back westward. Skirted the coast just south of Dauphin Island and I think made landfall in Biloxi area. It is amazing what steering currents can do.

[Fancy1001]

The CMC can't seem to decide what to do with Wilfred.

[Craters]

The CMC can't seem to decide what to do with Wilfred.

That is like the legendary ping-pong ball in a hurricane. Except that, well, you know...

[hurricanehunter69]

looks way more impressive in precipitable water than satellite ATM. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Frank P]

Convection firing off near the center this morning..
https://imgur.com/a/tKn0Vs2

[Visioen]

If I hear one more time something like "It's 2020..." I think I'm gonna lose it.

Which would be so 2020...

AAAaaaarhh.

[wxman57]

I was thinking that this reminds me of Edith in 1971, which bounced off NE Mexico then turned NE to track right over me in Lafayette, LA. Upper low steers it NNE next 36 hours, high builds in to the north and shoves it west toward (or into) TX Sun/Mon. Best time for hurricane strength is during the west movement. After Monday, trof digs down into TX and begins steering it NE, at which point it may suck in a good bit of dry air from Texas and weaken. I sure hope it just continues moving west into TX and dissipates by Tuesday, but I'm not holding my breath on that one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edith_(1971)

By the way, I'm not sure if this will be Wilfred or Alpha. NHC may name the system by Africa Wilfred first. It may come down to when the next scatterometer pass hits it.

Also, that 85kt SFMR wind with 5-10 kt FL winds all around looks kind of suspicious.

[N2FSU]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tropicwatch]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200918/d752c16347a247243bd2d62612826d16.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Don't think I have seen that before.

[tailgater]

We may have some COC reformations until it consolidates probably tonight or tomorrow. Sorry to hear about the Recon, not bitching just saying I woulda thought that these HH aircraft were equipped to handle lightening strikes better than most but just goes to show you power of a bolt of lightening. Really old fleet of birds also.

[aspen]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200918/d752c16347a247243bd2d62612826d16.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Don't think I have seen that before.

I remember recon had to immediately turn back as soon as they reached Hurricane Willa because the plane was struck by lightning.

[catskillfire51]

Well 98L beat out 22 so we may take the first name of the Greek alphabet

[Senobia]

Well 98L beat out 22 so we may take the first name of the Greek alphabet

Yeah.
It will be Alpha.

[catskillfire51]

Looking good this morning, anyone know if they will schedule a new recon flight?

[wxman57]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200918/d752c16347a247243bd2d62612826d16.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wonder if that was the 85kt SFMR spike we saw before data stopped? Well, it IS 2020, after all... (had to throw that in)

[Aric Dunn]

If it was borderline TS yesterday with minmal convection..

its alsmost certainly a TS now.

expect more east and south shifts if this gets stronger than expected and lags behind to the south even a little bit.

the expceted front in several days will become east to west orientated as it stall and Alpha would likley head off to the ENE then NE

possible as far south as the big bend area of florida.

[chaser1]

Let the Greek Festival soon begin! Program announcement: Festivities have been rescheduled to start in the Gulf of Mexico with a tentative start time of approx. 11:00PM this evening