ATL: LAURA - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Landfall at 102 hours, MSLP 947mb, winds 108 knots.

[ColdMiser123]

It's truly remarkable that a couple days ago the Euro was insisting that this would just be a tropical wave in the Gulf.

[South Texas Storms]

Yikes...glad I stocked up the cars with gas yesterday and am getting groceries delivered later this morning. Not good trends in the 0z model guidance for Houston tonight.

[xironman]

The size and trajectory looks like it would have a significant surge.

[Fancy1001]

Laura really is looking to try and be a repeat of the Galveston hurricane.

[Stormcenter]

And flip flopping continues.....most concerned with
what the EURO is showing strength wise this run. The
track is too far west so not buying it. IMO

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So glad our best model was able to resolve this one at least five days out /s

[Highteeld]

Peaks at 946 mb at hour 99 right before landfall

[SoupBone]

Yikes...glad I stocked up the cars with gas yesterday and am getting groceries delivered later this morning. Not good trends in the 0z model guidance for Houston tonight.

But the voice of reason says that just like today, they'll flip again, and again, etc. Last night's runs were like this too. Another day of model watching.

[Haris]

And flip flopping continues.....most concerned with
what the EURO is showing strength wise this run. The
track is too far west so not buying it. IMO

Why is it too far W? Ensembles for days have shown the spread from STX to AL..

UKMET GFS EURO all showing Galveston landfall.

[SoupBone]

I've asked but does anyone have the GFS ensembles?

[xironman]

Yikes...glad I stocked up the cars with gas yesterday and am getting groceries delivered later this morning. Not good trends in the 0z model guidance for Houston tonight.

But the voice of reason says that just like today, they'll flip again, and again, etc. Last night's runs were like this too. Another day of model watching.

It "should" be more accurate with all the G-IV data ingested for this run. Better data==better modeling. That's why they do those missions.

[SoupBone]

Yikes...glad I stocked up the cars with gas yesterday and am getting groceries delivered later this morning. Not good trends in the 0z model guidance for Houston tonight.

But the voice of reason says that just like today, they'll flip again, and again, etc. Last night's runs were like this too. Another day of model watching.

It "should" be more accurate with all the G-IV data ingested for this run. Better data==better modeling. That's why they do those missions.

Right but so were the earlier day runs. And how do you explain the ever consistent HWRF? I just think this flip flopping will continue like with Marco then start to hone in, in a day.

[txag2005]

What an awful set of model runs for those of us in SE Texas. Euro hits Freeport, putting the Houston metro on the dirty side. UKMET hits Galveston. GFS hits just east of Galveston (High Island maybe). All majors, and apparently the GFS/Euro are usually low on intensity.

[SoupBone]

Wait does the Euro lose Marco?

[CrazyC83]

As far as the 4 am advisory, I would move the cone slightly west personally - but not nearly as far as the GFS and Euro due to lack of consistency (i.e. landfall south of Lafayette). I'd also bump up the forecast intensities in the Gulf to a cat 2 peak and mention that a major hurricane cannot be ruled out.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Steve]

And flip flopping continues.....most concerned with
what the EURO is showing strength wise this run. The
track is too far west so not buying it. IMO

Maybe it is. It link high pressure over the top and surrounds it. Good thing it's moving because that would become a 4/5 in that setup all day. What the strength is showing along with most of the reputable models is that somebody's getting hit by at least a Cat 3 this week - if they're right obviously. That means many of us and even more people who read the forum are in for a very big deal.

[xironman]

Wait does the Euro lose Marco?

Marco goes into LA as a TS, it heads west and washes out from there due to the approach of Laura.

[Kingarabian]

I find it interesting how the Euro weakens Laura in the GoM. Quite the contrast from the GFS and hurricane models.

This is likely a bad run. It has finally lined up well in intensity and track with the GFS and HWRF through the first 66 hours with a 981mb pressure. Then weakens it all of a sudden and makes it a 999mb TS landfall hour 90 over Eastern-LA. This model has been inconsistent with Laura to the say the least.


[url]https://i.imgur.com/CEiYPDj.png[url]

I knew the 18z Euro was bogus.

Crazy 00z Euro now. Hope everyone is prepping.

[La Breeze]

As far as the 4 am advisory, I would move the cone slightly west personally - but not nearly as far as the GFS and Euro due to lack of consistency (i.e. landfall south of Lafayette). I'd also bump up the forecast intensities in the Gulf to a cat 2 peak and mention that a major hurricane cannot be ruled out.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

So, is it looking more now that Laura will be visiting TX instead of LA?