ATL: LAURA - Models

[HurricaneEdouard]

So glad our best model was able to resolve this one at least five days out /s

https://i.imgur.com/n452tA2.gif

EURO is the best model for track, not intensity; it was one of the least reliable intensity models in 2019, with the HWRF and GFS being considerably more accurate.

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Either way, EURO has definitely fallen in line with the HWRF and HMON, as have the GFS and UKMET. HWRF has been nailing Laura down to the minute short-term structural changes, and the globals are now broadly in agreement; not a good sign.

[gqhebert]

It all depends on how Laura comes out from the large islands....this will play a huge role in the final landfall.

[xironman]

Impressive after being over land for a few days, could regain hurricane status as it races NE

[Steve]

I've asked but does anyone have the GFS ensembles?

Sorry man. I saw your other post. I don't track them unless someone posts. I think us.weather has them.

[TallahasseeMan]

HWRF looks to keep this cranking inland. We all know that sometimes it can get structure uncanny. Luckily this is 4 days away, but I wonder if it's going to buzzsaw through the South? Sometimes storms weaken pretty quickly once inland. They still have a punch but not that hurricane punch. Hopefully this is wrong, and I'll pull some more plots when they come in.

This route would give both New Orleans and Baton Rouge a fairly hard hit. It’s not unprecedented for Hurricanes to hold strength inland, Michael stayed a major hurricane into Georgia from the south. (Not that a similar setup is necessarily in the cards)


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[HurricaneEdouard]

I've asked but does anyone have the GFS ensembles?

Sorry man. I saw your other post. I don't track them unless someone posts. I think us.weather has them.

Here are the 18Z GFS ensembles. Don't think 00Z is out yet.

[USTropics]

00z GFS ensembles:

[HurricaneEdouard]

00z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/sS0bCY4.png

Awesome! My site is still stuck on 18Z.

[Hammy]

00z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/sS0bCY4.png

Why are the ensembles so much weaker than operational?

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro Ensembles are strong and once again clustered near TX. Mean is southwest of the operational 0z Euro run now.

[Haris]

New euro eps have EVERY member in Texas as a hurricane

[Steve]

0z Euro Ensembles are strong and once again clustered near TX. Mean is southwest of the operational 0z Euro run now.

It's always hard to argue against the EU as landfall gets closer.

[Stormcenter]

I’ll argue with EURO because of how it’s performed
so far with Laura....remember it saw nothing much
just a couple of days ago. IMO

0z Euro Ensembles are strong and once again clustered near TX. Mean is southwest of the operational 0z Euro run now.

It's always hard to argue against the EU as landfall gets closer.

[South Texas Storms]

New euro eps have EVERY member in Texas as a hurricane

[url]https://i.ibb.co/991Wr6v/77675-CF9-D9-B1-4783-B595-7-A812779725-F.jpg [/url]

Interesting that all stronger members are farther west. The key to me is where does it move off Cuba. If it manages to get south of Cuba then Laura will likely be heading towards TX.

[KRCMiami]

Is there a possibility that Luara just doesn't make it over Cuba's mountains and weakens to the point it can't recover and just is nothing more than a depression ? Are the sea surface temps just too warm to keep her down ?

[Kingarabian]

Is there a possibility that Luara just doesn't make it over Cuba's mountains and weakens to the point it can't recover and just is nothing more than a depression ? Are the sea surface temps just too warm to keep her down ?

Sure this always remains a possibilty. So we have to wait maybe about 24 hours to know for SURE. But say for example it manages to survive Cuba and the core is in tact when it emerges into the GOM which is the FAVORED solution. Only then will the track become clear. But by then, people only got about 48 hours to prepare/evacuate. So preparations should've begun by now IMO.

[Blinhart]

As far as the 4 am advisory, I would move the cone slightly west personally - but not nearly as far as the GFS and Euro due to lack of consistency (i.e. landfall south of Lafayette). I'd also bump up the forecast intensities in the Gulf to a cat 2 peak and mention that a major hurricane cannot be ruled out.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

So, is it looking more now that Laura will be visiting TX instead of LA?

Unfortunately no, we are still square in the middle of the crosshairs, some of the models put her going straight over you and me.

[CM2]

Peaks at 946 mb at hour 99 right before landfall

https://i.imgur.com/3ixyUvi.png

Well was there ever a time that the Euro forecasted a storm to be this intense? Even if it dropped below 920 MB like in 2017 it would still have cat 3 winds. Granted these are wind gust but still 180 MPH wind gust are insane and are especially insane coming from the Euro.

[USTropics]

Model performance for Tropical Storm Laura thus far. Some of the data sample past 72 hours is low (i.e. low number of runs).

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS hours 24-48: