ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

I am seeing an eastward drift overall when I zoom way out. Since it is pretty much stalled out, at least most of the rain is over the water. Hopefully it will stay that way and will.not be stationary over land.

[FLpanhandle91]

Going to bed as -80°C cloud tops fire around the northwest eyewall. Very curious to see what tomorrow brings!

[ClarCari]

I could see a Cat.3 peak then regress down to Cat.2 at landfall, or possible a low-end Cat.3 landfall as the worst case possibility.
Truth be told, i’d feel like many would rather take their chances with a Cat.5 plowing through within 6 or so hours, rather than at Cat.1 or 2 just stalling for days and days and days like this one is looking...

[tailgater]

Looks like mid level shear is taking a toll but pressure remains steady for now, upwelling should also help. It may even decouple again. But hey it could be a Ct 3 tomorrow what do I know, just what I’m seeing not a forecast.

[Stormcenter]

East?

I am seeing an eastward drift overall when I zoom way out. Since it is pretty much stalled out, at least most of the rain is over the water. Hopefully it will stay that way and will.not be stationary over land.

[Jr0d]

East?

I am seeing an eastward drift overall when I zoom way out. Since it is pretty much stalled out, at least most of the rain is over the water. Hopefully it will stay that way and will.not be stationary over land.

Yes eastward drift!

Look at the overall motion!

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

If it meanders over water and the heavy rain stays offshore until it gets picked up by a trough, that would be a good scenario. It would minimize fresh water flooding and allow upwelling to weaken it.

[ConvergenceZone]

I could see a Cat.3 peak then regress down to Cat.2 at landfall, or possible a low-end Cat.3 landfall as the worst case possibility.
Truth be told, i’d feel like many would rather take their chances with a Cat.5 plowing through within 6 or so hours, rather than at Cat.1 or 2 just stalling for days and days and days like this one is looking...

At this point, I don't see this hitting Cat 3 status. Too much upwelling going on, and shear is expected to increase soon. I think today was as strong as it's going to get....Looking at around 85 mph at landfall is my prediction. The conditions just aren't there for a major.
Just my un-educated opinion however

[fci]

My last post on the matter...then shouldn’t New Orleans still be in the cone of error? Many people are not as savvy with storms as we are on this site are very worried..some are freaking out because we are under a Hurricane Warning. The warning says conditions are pretty eminent. The cone narrows it down. Perhaps they are saying to the public still expect hurricane conditions even if you aren’t in the cone of errors. No -removed- here. I don’t want it. Drop the warning and leave us alone..let us resume our normal life.

As has been stated numerous times on this board, the cone represents historical margin of error. It doesn’t represent current uncertainty. We’re all in agreement that it should, but it doesn’t. The NHC has valid reasoning to keep you under a warning but you seem to be ignoring the reasoning several posters here have given

I know a lot more than you suspect. I’m slightly playing naive. So basically, the NHC is telling everyone in Metropolitan New Orleans that hurricane conditions are “expected” in our area within 36 hours. So we should “expect” hurricane conditions by tomorrow evening. I’m being technical, but, your dealing with over a couple of million people sitting at home “expecting” hurricane conditions by tomorrow night. I’ve told quite a few people that we are really looking good...they are ready for the full brunt. That’s wrong. They are laymen. They don’t know.

Actually a warning does not mean everyone in the Warning Area should expect hurricane conditions.

“A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.“

[ClarCari]

I could see a Cat.3 peak then regress down to Cat.2 at landfall, or possible a low-end Cat.3 landfall as the worst case possibility.
Truth be told, i’d feel like many would rather take their chances with a Cat.5 plowing through within 6 or so hours, rather than at Cat.1 or 2 just stalling for days and days and days like this one is looking...

At this point, I don't see this hitting Cat 3 status. Too much upwelling going on, and shear is expected to increase soon. I think today was as strong as it's going to get....Looking at around 85 mph at landfall is my prediction. The conditions just aren't there for a major.
Just my un-educated opinion however

It honestly doesn’t matter a whole lot anymore
I still believe it’s possible even with the downgrade. The upwelling and shear (that I can’t see btw I’m not sure where alot of yall are seeing shear?) won’t weaken this as much as some us are hoping it will but a steady strengthening if it pulls itself together is possible.

But again, not making much a difference anyways. Just expect rain, rain, rainnnnn.

[Stormcenter]

Per NHC at 1am moving west at 3 mph and radar confirms
that.

East?

I am seeing an eastward drift overall when I zoom way out. Since it is pretty much stalled out, at least most of the rain is over the water. Hopefully it will stay that way and will.not be stationary over land.

Yes eastward drift!

Look at the overall motion!

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

If it meanders over water and the heavy rain stays offshore until it gets picked up by a trough, that would be a good scenario. It would minimize fresh water flooding and allow upwelling to weaken it.

[psyclone]

There's an argument to be made that the warnings over se LA are what i like to refer to as "legacy warnings"...(legacy warning= a warning that is a throwback to earlier track expectations that have since changed but the warning is maintained...in case things go back...to avoid the dreaded on/off/on scenario). I'd keep an eye peeled in SE LA but would be resting better tonight. As for the "cone"...it is the anticipated center location...not the impacts. as a storm nears land...most of the area under warnings will reside outside of the cone. they're going to have impacts but not expecting the center. The cone doesn't indicate the area under risk. Use wind probability, storm surge and QPF products to determine your risk. The cone should be discontinued. it is constantly misinterpreted and is of minimal value when determining risk.

[Jr0d]

Zoom out, look at the big picture and don't focus on an poorly formed eye that wobbles.

Over the past 2 or 3 hours there appears to be an eastward drift of the system. It is definitely apparent if you zoom out enough to see the big picture.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

Per NHC at 1am moving west at 3 mph and radar confirms
that.

[Uptownmeow]

Zoom out, look at the big picture and don't focus on an poorly formed eye that wobbles.

Over the past 2 or 3 hours there appears to be an eastward drift of the system. It is definitely apparent if you zoom out enough to see the big picture.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

Per NHC at 1am moving west at 3 mph and radar confirms
that.

I wouldn’t argue with the NHC on this based on zooming in.

[HurricaneRyan]

I'm getting Elena vibes with this storm tbh

[Jr0d]

I wouldn’t argue with the NHC on this based on zooming in.

I am not arguing with the NHC. The CoC fix is what it is.

Sally is essentially stationary right now.

I am saying it appears the overall envelope has drifted eastward. If this is just a temporary jog or actual trend is to be determined.

Anyone can see this eastward jog of the overall envelope over the past few hours.

[Hurricane Mike]

Sally looks stationary...and not that impressive at the moment.

[tropicwatch]

Sally looks stationary...and not that impressive at the moment.

Starting to look a little better on radar with the northern portion of the center getting thicker.

[bella_may]

https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/statu ... 81760?s=21 Here’s a good clip of the current movement. It’s still moving west but barely

[AxaltaRacing24]

despite the struggles tonight, nearly every model shows strengthening until at least through the afternoon, so it will be important to watch for any organization in the next 12-18 hours.

[tropicwatch]

HH recently went through and the center did nudge a little northward. Satellite imagery indicates Convection is building and expanding again. Pressure also slowly coming down.