ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Thinking about possible warning and dual-threat scenarios, they will likely need a Hurricane Watch for Laura on the Louisiana coast while Marco is still ongoing. It creates a real communication challenge.

I know it's still several days out but this has the potential to be a really bad situation for Louisiana. First a possible strong TS/Cat 1 hit from Marco followed possibly by Laura a couple days later. And Laura could have potential to become quite strong...

Thanks Dude. It's all a big dilemma. And I'm not really sure what I'm going to do. I'm not particularly worried about Marco. Usually a TS coming through is something I enjoy experiencing. Secure the loose objects, get the cars to higher ground and sit back and chill. But with the ambiguities for Laura with track and strength, I'm not sure what the move is mid-week. We'd be out of time to evacuate because you theoretically aren't going to evacuate during a tropical storm, and it takes 48-72 hours to get people out of New Orleans. I guess I'd ride it out at that point not having a lot of other options because of time. We have most of what we need to get through a week, and even if the whole city flooded again, I could get my truck from downtown at some point and have a way to get out later.

We don't even really know what we'd be dealing with if we do get hit (or close) by Laura. Some of the runs into the 940's, 930's and even 920's are terrifying. I'd love to ride those out in a bunker or something. But living in a flood prone city with fragile protective infrastructure will make you think twice.

As dumb as it may sound for now, I have no real plan of action. It's just wait and see. I'll talk with all the family tomorrow and see where everyone's heads are at and maybe try to craft some options based on work schedules and such if we do need to get out. All we can talk is in concepts though because again, we don't even know what we might be facing or if it's something handleable.

I hate that feeling. I went through it with Dorian last year. 3 days out I have the big M over my house and my local forecast says 150mph winds gusting to 165mph. So I took my kids and wife and bought 4 tickets for the first flight out of palm beach all the way to friggin Denver. In hindsight I wasted thousands of dollars because it stalled and never even came here. But you really don’t know what’s going to happen. Do you have family that you can go crash with for a few days and just see what happens and that way you can just head home if it’s not gonna be an issue? Or even a hotel a few hours north?

[toad strangler]

Thinking about possible warning and dual-threat scenarios, they will likely need a Hurricane Watch for Laura on the Louisiana coast while Marco is still ongoing. It creates a real communication challenge.

I know it's still several days out but this has the potential to be a really bad situation for Louisiana. First a possible strong TS/Cat 1 hit from Marco followed possibly by Laura a couple days later. And Laura could have potential to become quite strong...

Thanks Dude. It's all a big dilemma. And I'm not really sure what I'm going to do. I'm not particularly worried about Marco. Usually a TS coming through is something I enjoy experiencing. Secure the loose objects, get the cars to higher ground and sit back and chill. But with the ambiguities for Laura with track and strength, I'm not sure what the move is mid-week. We'd be out of time to evacuate because you theoretically aren't going to evacuate during a tropical storm, and it takes 48-72 hours to get people out of New Orleans. I guess I'd ride it out at that point not having a lot of other options because of time. We have most of what we need to get through a week, and even if the whole city flooded again, I could get my truck from downtown at some point and have a way to get out later.

We don't even really know what we'd be dealing with if we do get hit (or close) by Laura. Some of the runs into the 940's, 930's and even 920's are terrifying. I'd love to ride those out in a bunker or something. But living in a flood prone city with fragile protective infrastructure will make you think twice.

As dumb as it may sound for now, I have no real plan of action. It's just wait and see. I'll talk with all the family tomorrow and see where everyone's heads are at and maybe try to craft some options based on work schedules and such if we do need to get out. All we can talk is in concepts though because again, we don't even know what we might be facing or if it's something handleable.

Ughhh, is this ever a sobering post. When I moved to my location on the E Coast of FL many years ago I disqualified any area that had a history of flooding with a worst case scenario in mind. It's definitely what worried me most over anything. Water. Good Luck Steve!

[guyclaude08]

I'm in Santiago de los Caballeros (i'M haitian btw) we got no rain no wind nothing at all what's going on ? lol

[Steve]

I have a place in Pensacola we can go to. But it's next to impossible to evacuate from here. Katrina = 12 hours to Alexandria (3.75 hour drive). Gustav, 16 hours to Austin (7.5 hour drive). You need 3 days to evacuate the city which would be tomorrow or Monday. And that's when we're supposed to have Marco coming through. One of our family works at a major hospital, so she may be under some special stipulation or something. The hospital could be a shelter of last resort if we absolutely needed it, but that's kind of the last place I want to be in right now. We'll do whatever is prudent. We'd probably stay for a middle 2 or anything lower. Beyond that, that's kind of what we all need to talk about tomorrow and what we can do if they enact contraflow and prevent us from going that way.

[USTropics]

I'm in Santiago de los Caballeros (i'M haitian btw) we got no rain no wind nothing at all what's going on ? lol

Your location is on the fringe of the deeper convection (blue dot). As the flow continues to push over Hispaniola you will be experiencing rain soon and some wind gusts. Your location (near the mountainous terrain) should shield you a bit:

[SconnieCane]

Remember when the globals all poofed this and we all assumed it was because it would take the long way down the GA? Now it looks like it actually will do that yet the globals now show an intense hurricane (GFS) or at least a coherent tropical cyclone (Euro) in the Gulf?

[Kingarabian]

Remember when the globals all poofed this and we all assumed it was because it would take the long way down the GA? Now it looks like it actually will do that yet the globals now show an intense hurricane (GFS) or at least a coherent tropical cyclone (Euro) in the Gulf?

This is why human intuition cant be beat.

[Cat5James]

Remember when the globals all poofed this and we all assumed it was because it would take the long way down the GA? Now it looks like it actually will do that yet the globals now show an intense hurricane (GFS) or at least a coherent tropical cyclone (Euro) in the Gulf?

As long as convection is firing its doing the opposite of "poofing"

[toad strangler]

Laura is a rather large system now.

[eastcoastFL]

24hr Microwave loop

[eastcoastFL]

Remember when the globals all poofed this and we all assumed it was because it would take the long way down the GA? Now it looks like it actually will do that yet the globals now show an intense hurricane (GFS) or at least a coherent tropical cyclone (Euro) in the Gulf?

This is why human intuition cant be beat.

Well said. Models are tools and can be excellent tools but they’re no substitute for a pro met.

[Hammy]

As much as the situation looked similar to Erika 2015 yesterday, today is like night and day and I compared the two storms in similar positions, and it's clear why Erika was eaten by Hispaniola as it was dealing with a ton of shear--Laura has much better upper air conditions that can sustain a mid-level vort if it passes over the mountains.

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing you can't say about this storm is that it's lacking convection lol....

[rigbyrigz]

I have a place in Pensacola we can go to. But it's next to impossible to evacuate from here. Katrina = 12 hours to Alexandria (3.75 hour drive). Gustav, 16 hours to Austin (7.5 hour drive). You need 3 days to evacuate the city which would be tomorrow or Monday. And that's when we're supposed to have Marco coming through. One of our family works at a major hospital, so she may be under some special stipulation or something. The hospital could be a shelter of last resort if we absolutely needed it, but that's kind of the last place I want to be in right now. We'll do whatever is prudent. We'd probably stay for a middle 2 or anything lower. Beyond that, that's kind of what we all need to talk about tomorrow and what we can do if they enact contraflow and prevent us from going that way.

Besides prayers and best wishes, a little math and reason suggests that the 11PM Monday night advisory/discussion and maybe the midnight model runs are somewhat likely to be the first extremely definitive forecast points for what (GOM-entering) Laura's final approach and landfall strength and location, roughly 48 hours away, will somewhat precisely be (late Wednesday).

Evacuating Tuesday, due to Marco and travel issues, obviously isn't practical. If it is going to be just calculated guesswork, and the answer is to leave, probably just as well get going on Sunday. Not a problem any of us would want to have or wish on anyone else. If there is something any of us can do to help, many here happy to assist.

[chaser1]

I know it's still several days out but this has the potential to be a really bad situation for Louisiana. First a possible strong TS/Cat 1 hit from Marco followed possibly by Laura a couple days later. And Laura could have potential to become quite strong...

Thanks Dude. It's all a big dilemma. And I'm not really sure what I'm going to do. I'm not particularly worried about Marco. Usually a TS coming through is something I enjoy experiencing. Secure the loose objects, get the cars to higher ground and sit back and chill. But with the ambiguities for Laura with track and strength, I'm not sure what the move is mid-week. We'd be out of time to evacuate because you theoretically aren't going to evacuate during a tropical storm, and it takes 48-72 hours to get people out of New Orleans. I guess I'd ride it out at that point not having a lot of other options because of time. We have most of what we need to get through a week, and even if the whole city flooded again, I could get my truck from downtown at some point and have a way to get out later.

We don't even really know what we'd be dealing with if we do get hit (or close) by Laura. Some of the runs into the 940's, 930's and even 920's are terrifying. I'd love to ride those out in a bunker or something. But living in a flood prone city with fragile protective infrastructure will make you think twice.

As dumb as it may sound for now, I have no real plan of action. It's just wait and see. I'll talk with all the family tomorrow and see where everyone's heads are at and maybe try to craft some options based on work schedules and such if we do need to get out. All we can talk is in concepts though because again, we don't even know what we might be facing or if it's something handleable.

I hate that feeling. I went through it with Dorian last year. 3 days out I have the big M over my house and my local forecast says 150mph winds gusting to 165mph. So I took my kids and wife and bought 4 tickets for the first flight out of palm beach all the way to friggin Denver. In hindsight I wasted thousands of dollars because it stalled and never even came here. But you really don’t know what’s going to happen. Do you have family that you can go crash with for a few days and just see what happens and that way you can just head home if it’s not gonna be an issue? Or even a hotel a few hours north?

Was kind of thinking the same thing; Steve, see if you can snag a hotel about 3 hours northwest of you. Just make sure they have a liberal cancellation policy. Best case scenario, you cancel the reservation. Maybe you can find a good Groupon deal.

[chaser1]

I'm in Santiago de los Caballeros (i'M haitian btw) we got no rain no wind nothing at all what's going on ? lol

A little south of Porto Plata? I dont think you're gonna see any particularly strong wind from this event but you could be soon getting some serious rains. Be very wary of flooding. That's not something to take lightly. Is there any local radar sites near the north coast?

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF takes a 15 hour trek across Hispaniola popping out of the NW corner of the island. Time frame might be off because it initialized with the low still well south of the island.

[guyclaude08]

I'm in Santiago de los Caballeros (i'M haitian btw) we got no rain no wind nothing at all what's going on ? lol

A little south of Porto Plata? I dont think you're gonna see any particularly strong wind from this event but you could be soon getting some serious rains. Be very wary of flooding. That's not something to take lightly. Is there any local radar sites near the north coast?

Sorry i Don't really know. Thank for your response though

[Steve]

I have a place in Pensacola we can go to. But it's next to impossible to evacuate from here. Katrina = 12 hours to Alexandria (3.75 hour drive). Gustav, 16 hours to Austin (7.5 hour drive). You need 3 days to evacuate the city which would be tomorrow or Monday. And that's when we're supposed to have Marco coming through. One of our family works at a major hospital, so she may be under some special stipulation or something. The hospital could be a shelter of last resort if we absolutely needed it, but that's kind of the last place I want to be in right now. We'll do whatever is prudent. We'd probably stay for a middle 2 or anything lower. Beyond that, that's kind of what we all need to talk about tomorrow and what we can do if they enact contraflow and prevent us from going that way.

Besides prayers and best wishes, a little math and reason suggests that the 11PM Monday night advisory/discussion and maybe the midnight model runs are somewhat likely to be the first extremely definitive forecast points for what (GOM-entering) Laura's final approach and landfall strength and location, roughly 48 hours away, will somewhat precisely be (late Wednesday).

Evacuating Tuesday, due to Marco and travel issues, obviously isn't practical. If it is going to be just calculated guesswork, and the answer is to leave, probably just as well get going on Sunday. Not a problem any of us would want to have or wish on anyone else. If there is something any of us can do to help, many here happy to assist.

Thanks for that. If we have to get out, we'll make it to Pensacola which hopefully won't have any issues.

[Hurricaneman]

The outflow on this is starting to look impressive, once done with the islands, if this maintains good symmetry this could bomb fast

This is the opinions of a non professional, for official info please look at NWS, NHC or NOAA products