ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Feeder band appears to be developing quickly.
With about 10 hrs to landfall, not sure how much this will have on any restrengthening.
However, IMHO this will likely increase inland rainfall totals more than current forecast.

[supercane4867]

:eek:

https://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/cmtl1_hg.png

No surprise given the massive wind field size

[p1nheadlarry]

Helicity appears to be increasing at a stronger rate than last evening.

https://i.imgur.com/chSO4tD.gif

Could the juxtaposition of the trough add to tornado threat w/ increased vorticity advection?

[supercane4867]

Starting to feel the effects of shear, but northern eyewall still holding strong.

[Steve]

^^ HMON and HWRF have been showing just that at landfall on all runs the last few days and again at 06z. Appears it’s going to be a hard hit at first with that northern eyewall. Then there doesn’t appear to be much of a back side to the system. Looks to be a quick in-out once the center makes it to a given location.

[NDG]

This will be one of those strange hurricanes in which the wettest and most intense quadrants will the northern and NW quadrants, Lafayette just east of the track will get much less rain than in Lake Charles which will be to the west of the track.

[supercane4867]

First visible

[SconnieCane]

First visible

https://i.imgur.com/wedmPPb.png

"Delta Dawn" (RIP Helen Reddy).

[GCANE]

Cold pool has cooled off quite a bit again

[AJC3]

Helicity appears to be increasing at a stronger rate than last evening.

https://i.imgur.com/chSO4tD.gif

Could the juxtaposition of the trough add to tornado threat w/ increased vorticity advection?

Unlikely. While anything that aids in forced ascent (such as H50 PVA, H25 divergence) is favorable for
increasing the threat for any kind of severe weather, the magnitude of PVA that will occur with Delta's
circulation itself will dwarf that of any contribution from the mid level trough over Texas.

With or without any additional PVA contribution, the threat for tornadoes in the NE-E quadrant of
Delta will be quite high.

[underthwx]

Helicity appears to be increasing at a stronger rate than last evening.

https://i.imgur.com/chSO4tD.gif

Could the juxtaposition of the trough add to tornado threat w/ increased vorticity advection?

Unlikely. While anything that aids in forced ascent (such as H50 PVA, H25 divergence) is favorable for
increasing the threat for any kind of severe weather, the magnitude of PVA that will occur with Delta's
circulation itself will dwarf that of any contribution from the mid level trough over Texas.

With or without any additional PVA contribution, the threat for tornadoes in the NE-E quadrant of
Delta will be quite high.

Thats easy for you to say AJC3...lol....way over my head

[weunice]

As someone who lives near the Comite and Amite, this isn't going to cause problem YET but it is not a good start for us. There was a broad area in the Comite/Amite basin that received 6-8 inches of rain last night. If that feeds on over that area over 2-3 days we are going to have serious problems. As a note, this area was one of the hardest hit areas in the 2016 flood. For reference, that event had broad areas of rain over 24 inches with a high mark near 40 inches.

[ElectricStorm]

As someone who lives near the Comite and Amite, this isn't going to cause problem YET but it is not a good start for us. There was a broad area in the Comite/Amite basin that received 6-8 inches of rain last night. If that feeds on over that area over 2-3 days we are going to have serious problems. As a note, this area was one of the hardest hit areas in the 2016 flood. For reference, that event had broad areas of rain over 24 inches with a high mark near 40 inches.

Wow. Praying for ya. Stay safe down there!

[GCANE]

Three recon passes at 960mb.

CAPE now up to 5000.

About 9 hrs over water.

A stronger cold pool and warmer core.

A developing feeder band.

Increasing shear.

Possible dry-air entrainment.


Will Delta make one more push to strengthen?

[TheStormExpert]

Definitely looks like Delta has weakened some since yesterday afternoon and evening as the eye is non-evident on satellite. But it still should be a Cat.2 at landfall at least. Nothing to downplay by any means!!

[DaveRRTX]

As someone who lives near the Comite and Amite, this isn't going to cause problem YET but it is not a good start for us. There was a broad area in the Comite/Amite basin that received 6-8 inches of rain last night. If that feeds on over that area over 2-3 days we are going to have serious problems. As a note, this area was one of the hardest hit areas in the 2016 flood. For reference, that event had broad areas of rain over 24 inches with a high mark near 40 inches.

Wow. Praying for ya. Stay safe down there!

One of my biggest concerns related to Hurricanes hitting Louisiana on this trajectory is the flooding caused by the high rainfall. Hopefully Delta maintains its forward speed and moves quickly through Louisiana so we don't get a repeat of the 2016 weather rain bomb. I have family all over NOLA, Lafitte, Laplace, Ponchatoula, Hammond, and Denham Springs. Praying for the folks in the Lake Charles area; they have been through so much this year.

[Stormgodess]

Winds blew an 18 wheeler over on I-10, now blocking one of the main evacuation routes away from Delta. Traffic was already a bumper to bumper crawl prior to this.

[MississippiWx]

Big wobble to the left on the latest pass from recon. These hurricanes are determined to wipe out Lake Charles this year.

[MOGSY31]

Definitely pre Hurricane morning here
Weird kind of atmosphere, wind slowly increasing, a little drizzle and pretty dark looking over all, not dark clouds tho its almost like dusk

Some large branches that were broken by Laura have now fallen this morning
will try to update ya'll as the day goes by, not sure how to post videos but i'll try
location below

Degrees Minutes Seconds:
Latitude: 30-13'03'' N
Longitude: 092-22'31'' W
Decimal Degrees:
Latitude: 30.2173617
Longitude: -92.375358

[hcane27]

Hmmmm. Vortex data shows an eastward component.